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Jonathan Weare

Jonathan Weare contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

6 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Composing diffusion priors with explicit physical context via generative Gibbs sampling

Pretrained diffusion models provide powerful learned priors, but in scientific sampling the target distribution often depends on physical context that is not fully represented by one generative model. We introduce Generative Gibbs for Physics-Aware Sampling (GG-PA), a training-free framework that formulates the composition of learned partial priors and explicit physical context as inference over a joint target distribution in an augmented state space. We derive a Gibbs sampler for this joint target, show that it is asymptotically exact as the diffusion time approaches zero, and prove that in settings with quadratic interactions it remains exact at finite diffusion times. We further introduce replica exchange over diffusion time to accelerate mixing. Experiments on a double-well system, a $φ^4$ lattice model, and atomistic peptide systems show that GG-PA recovers context-induced distribution shifts and emergent collective behavior in interacting systems using partial priors without retraining. These results demonstrate GG-PA as a practical approach for combining pretrained generative priors with explicit physical context.

preprint2022arXiv

Computing transition path theory quantities with trajectory stratification

Transition path theory computes statistics from ensembles of reactive trajectories. A common strategy for sampling reactive trajectories is to control the branching and pruning of trajectories so as to enhance the sampling of low probability segments. However, it can be challenging to apply transition path theory to data from such methods because determining whether configurations and trajectory segments are part of reactive trajectories requires looking backward and forward in time. Here, we show how this issue can be overcome efficiently by introducing simple data structures. We illustrate the approach in the context of nonequilibrium umbrella sampling (NEUS), but the strategy is general and can be used to obtain transition path theory statistics from other methods that sample segments of unbiased trajectories.

preprint2021arXiv

Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics

Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury's orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the future using a large number of direct numerical simulations with an N-body code, but were not able to obtain accurate estimates before 3 billion years in the future because Mercury instability events are too rare. In this paper we use a new rare event sampling technique, Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (QDMC), to estimate that the probability of a Mercury instability event in the next 2 billion years is approximately $10^{-4}$ in the REBOUND N-body code. We show that QDMC provides unbiased probability estimates at a computational cost of up to 100 times less than direct numerical simulation. QDMC is easy to implement and could be applied to many problems in planetary dynamics in which it is necessary to estimate the probability of a rare event.

preprint2020arXiv

Long-timescale predictions from short-trajectory data: A benchmark analysis of the trp-cage miniprotein

Elucidating physical mechanisms with statistical confidence from molecular dynamics simulations can be challenging owing to the many degrees of freedom that contribute to collective motions. To address this issue, we recently introduced a dynamical Galerkin approximation (DGA) [Thiede et al. J. Phys. Chem. 150, 244111 (2019)], in which chemical kinetic statistics that satisfy equations of dynamical operators are represented by a basis expansion. Here, we reformulate this approach, clarifying (and reducing) the dependence on the choice of lag time. We present a new projection of the reactive current onto collective variables and provide improved estimators for rates and committors. We also present simple procedures for constructing suitable smoothly varying basis functions from arbitrary molecular features. To evaluate estimators and basis sets numerically, we generate and carefully validate a dataset of short trajectories for the unfolding and folding of the trp-cage miniprotein, a well-studied system. Our analysis demonstrates a comprehensive strategy for characterizing reaction pathways quantitatively.

preprint2020arXiv

Path properties of atmospheric transitions: illustration with a low-order sudden stratospheric warming model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe \emph{transition path theory} (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex which can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton-Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These "dynamical statistics" are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model's phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events, through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

preprint2020arXiv

Stratification as a general variance reduction method for Markov chain Monte Carlo

The Eigenvector Method for Umbrella Sampling (EMUS) belongs to a popular class of methods in statistical mechanics which adapt the principle of stratified survey sampling to the computation of free energies. We develop a detailed theoretical analysis of EMUS. Based on this analysis, we show that EMUS is an efficient general method for computing averages over arbitrary target distributions. In particular, we show that EMUS can be dramatically more efficient than direct MCMC when the target distribution is multimodal or when the goal is to compute tail probabilities. To illustrate these theoretical results, we present a tutorial application of the method to a problem from Bayesian statistics.