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Huangyuan Su

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Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning eess.SY Multiagent Systems

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preprint2026arXiv

Reliability and Effectiveness of Autonomous AI Agents in Supply Chain Management

This paper studies autonomous generative AI agents in multi-echelon supply chains using the MIT Beer Game. We identify four inference-time levers that shape performance: model selection, policies and guardrails, centralized data sharing, and prompt engineering. Model capability is the dominant factor: an out-of-the-box reasoning model exceeds human-level performance, and optimized reasoning models reduce costs by up to 67% relative to human teams. However, strong average performance masks substantial reliability risks. We introduce the agent bullwhip effect, the amplification of decision unreliability across echelons, manifesting along two dimensions: decision variance increases both across facilities at the same point in time and within the same facility across time. We develop a mathematical framework showing that this phenomenon is inherent to multi-agent systems that involve coordination and information delays, and we demonstrate that repeated sampling fails to meaningfully reduce it. To address this limitation, we propose a Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)-based reinforcement-learning post-training framework that trains a shared base LLM using system-level supply-chain rewards. GRPO post-training substantially reduces tail events, curtails agent bullwhip, and improves the reliability of autonomous supply-chain agents.

preprint2022arXiv

MEPG: A Minimalist Ensemble Policy Gradient Framework for Deep Reinforcement Learning

During the training of a reinforcement learning (RL) agent, the distribution of training data is non-stationary as the agent's behavior changes over time. Therefore, there is a risk that the agent is overspecialized to a particular distribution and its performance suffers in the larger picture. Ensemble RL can mitigate this issue by learning a robust policy. However, it suffers from heavy computational resource consumption due to the newly introduced value and policy functions. In this paper, to avoid the notorious resources consumption issue, we design a novel and simple ensemble deep RL framework that integrates multiple models into a single model. Specifically, we propose the \underline{M}inimalist \underline{E}nsemble \underline{P}olicy \underline{G}radient framework (MEPG), which introduces minimalist ensemble consistent Bellman update by utilizing a modified dropout operator. MEPG holds ensemble property by keeping the dropout consistency of both sides of the Bellman equation. Additionally, the dropout operator also increases MEPG's generalization capability. Moreover, we theoretically show that the policy evaluation phase in the MEPG maintains two synchronized deep Gaussian Processes. To verify the MEPG framework's ability to generalize, we perform experiments on the gym simulator, which presents that the MEPG framework outperforms or achieves a similar level of performance as the current state-of-the-art ensemble methods and model-free methods without increasing additional computational resource costs.