BZPEERReading, trust and collaboration for research
Menu

Discover

GraphFollow connections around a paper, topic or saved view.

Workspaces

HomePick up where your research flow left off.InboxHandle requests, replies and notifications from one place.CollectionsCurate reading lists, evidence sets and shareable dossiers.ResearchSee your private provenance graph, trail and imports.CollaborationMove from discovery into focused discussion rooms.PublishDraft, preview and publish full-text research articles.

Network

ExpertsFind specialists worth following or asking for help.CommunitiesJoin research circles organized around shared work.PartnersSee external organizations active around the same topics.

Opportunities

ListingsBrowse roles, calls and collaborations with clearer fit signals.

Account

Log inReturn to your reading and collaboration workspace.Create accountStart saving work, following people and joining teams.
Log inCreate account

Researcher profile

Gourab Ghoshal

Gourab Ghoshal contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
physics.soc-phcs.CYPopulations and EvolutionSocial and Information NetworksArtificial IntelligenceDigital Librariesmath.DSMethodologynlin.AOnlin.CDphysics.ao-phphysics.flu-dyn

Trust snapshot

Quick read

Trust 21 - EmergingVerification L1Unclaimed author
12works
0followers
12topics
4close collaborators

Actions

Decide how to stay connected

Follow researcher0

Identity and collaboration

How to connect with this researcher

Claiming links this public author record to a researcher profile and unlocks direct collaboration workflows.

Log in to claim

Direct collaboration

Open a focused conversation when the fit is right

Claim this author entity first to unlock direct invitations.

Research graph

See the researcher in context

Open full explorer

Inspect adjacent work, topics, institutions and collaborators without jumping out to a separate graph page.

Building this graph slice

BZPEER is loading the nearby papers, people, topics and institutions for this page.

Published work

12 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Can LLMs Emulate Human Belief Dynamics?

Can LLMs simulate how humans form and change beliefs in social networks? We put this to the test by replicating an established study on belief dynamics, evaluating 12 LLMs across multiple model families and parameter sizes. The answer is a clear no, and in systematic ways. LLMs fail to capture initial human belief distributions and tend to be overall more conformist than humans, shifting their responses to align with those around them. They also take a nuanced approach to emulating human homophilic tendencies within networks. Our findings carry a double payoff: they highlight fundamental properties of LLM behavior, and they raise a sharp warning against deploying LLMs as human proxies in social simulations.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Don't follow the leader: Independent thinkers create scientific innovation

Academic success is distributed unequally; a few top scientists receive the bulk of attention, citations, and resources. However, do these ``superstars" foster leadership in scientific innovation? We introduce three information-theoretic measures that quantify novelty, innovation, and impact from scholarly citation networks, and compare the scholarly output of scientists who are either not connected or strongly connected to superstar scientists. We find that while connected scientists do indeed publish more, garner more citations, and produce more diverse content, this comes at a cost of lower innovation and higher redundancy of ideas. Further, once one removes papers co-authored with superstars, the academic output of these connected scientists diminishes. In contrast, authors that produce innovative content without the benefit of collaborations with scientific superstars produce papers that connect a greater diversity of concepts, publish more, and have comparable citation rates, once one controls for transferred prestige of superstars. On balance, our results indicate that academia pays a price by focusing attention and resources on superstars.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Growing Urban Bicycle Networks

Cycling is a promising solution to unsustainable urban transport systems. However, prevailing bicycle network development follows a slow and piecewise process, without taking into account the structural complexity of transportation networks. Here we explore systematically the topological limitations of urban bicycle network development. For 62 cities we study different variations of growing a synthetic bicycle network between an arbitrary set of points routed on the urban street network. We find initially decreasing returns on investment until a critical threshold, posing fundamental consequences to sustainable urban planning: Cities must invest into bicycle networks with the right growth strategy, and persistently, to surpass a critical mass. We also find pronounced overlaps of synthetically grown networks in cities with well-developed existing bicycle networks, showing that our model reflects reality. Growing networks from scratch makes our approach a generally applicable starting point for sustainable urban bicycle network planning with minimal data requirements.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been holding the world hostage for more than a year now. Mobility is key to viral spreading and its restriction is the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the virus expansion. Previous works have shown a connection between the structural organization of cities and the movement patterns of their residents. This puts urban centers in the focus of epidemic surveillance and interventions. Here we show that the organization of urban flows has a tremendous impact on disease spreading and on the amenability of different mitigation strategies. By studying anonymous and aggregated intra-urban flows in a variety of cities in the United States and other countries, and a combination of empirical analysis and analytical methods, we demonstrate that the response of cities to epidemic spreading can be roughly classified in two major types according to the overall organization of those flows. Hierarchical cities, where flows are concentrated primarily between mobility hotspots, are particularly vulnerable to the rapid spread of epidemics. Nevertheless, mobility restrictions in such types of cities are very effective in mitigating the spread of a virus. Conversely, in sprawled cities which present many centers of activity, the spread of an epidemic is much slower, but the response to mobility restrictions is much weaker and less effective. Investing resources on early monitoring and prompt ad-hoc interventions in more vulnerable cities may prove helpful in containing and reducing the impact of future pandemics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Chemical oscillators synchronized via an active oscillating medium: dynamics and phase approximation model

Different types of synchronization states are found when non-linear chemical oscillators are embedded into an active medium that interconnects the oscillators but also contributes to the system dynamics. Using different theoretical tools, we approach this problem in order to describe the transition between two such synchronized states. Bifurcation and continuation analysis provide a full description of the parameter space. Phase approximation modeling allows the calculation of the oscillator periods and the bifurcation point.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Contrasting social and non-social sources of predictability in human mobility

Social structures influence a variety of human behaviors including mobility patterns, but the extent to which one individual's movements can predict another's remains an open question. Further, latent information about an individual's mobility can be present in the mobility patterns of both social and non-social ties, a distinction that has not yet been addressed. Here we develop a "colocation" network to distinguish the mobility patterns of an ego's social ties from those of non-social colocators, individuals not socially connected to the ego but who nevertheless arrive at a location at the same time as the ego. We apply entropy and predictability measures to analyse and bound the predictive information of an individual's mobility pattern and the flow of that information from their top social ties and from their non-social colocators. While social ties generically provide more information than non-social colocators, we find that significant information is present in the aggregation of non-social colocators: 3-7 colocators can provide as much predictive information as the top social tie, and colocators can replace up to 85% of the predictive information about an ego, compared with social ties that can replace up to 94% of the ego's predictability. The presence of predictive information among non-social colocators raises privacy concerns: given the increasing availability of real-time mobility traces from smartphones, individuals sharing data may be providing actionable information not just about their own movements but the movements of others whose data are absent, both known and unknown individuals.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Inferring Spatial Source of Disease Outbreaks using Maximum Entropy

Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, which can inform policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models. Such frameworks -- across varying levels of complexity -- are typically sensitive to input data on epidemic parameters, case-counts and mortality rates, which are generally noisy and incomplete. To alleviate these limitations, we propose a maximum entropy framework that fits epidemiological models, provides a calibrated infection origin probabilities, and is robust to noise due to a prior belief model. Maximum entropy is agnostic to the parameters or model structure used and allows for flexible use when faced with sparse data conditions and incomplete knowledge in the dynamical phase of disease-spread, providing for more reliable modeling at early stages of outbreaks. We evaluate the performance of our model by predicting future disease trajectories in synthetic graph networks and the real mobility network of New York state. In addition, unlike existing approaches, we demonstrate that the method can be used to infer the origin of the outbreak with accurate confidence. Indeed, despite the prevalent belief on the feasibility of contact-tracing being limited to the initial stages of an outbreak, we report the possibility of reconstructing early disease dynamics, including the epidemic seed, at advanced stages.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Interplay between intra-urban population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics

In this work, we address the connection between population density centers in urban areas, and the nature of human flows between such centers, in shaping the vulnerability to the onset of contagious diseases. A study of 163 cities, chosen from four different continents reveals a universal trend, whereby the risk induced by human mobility increases in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our formalism to the spread of SARS-COV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Armed with this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Simulation-Based Inference with Approximately Correct Parameters via Maximum Entropy

Inferring the input parameters of simulators from observations is a crucial challenge with applications from epidemiology to molecular dynamics. Here we show a simple approach in the regime of sparse data and approximately correct models, which is common when trying to use an existing model to infer latent variables with observed data. This approach is based on the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and provably makes the smallest change in the latent joint distribution to fit new data. This method requires no likelihood or model derivatives and its fit is insensitive to prior strength, removing the need to balance observed data fit with prior belief. The method requires the ansatz that data is fit in expectation, which is true in some settings and may be reasonable in all with few data points. The method is based on sample reweighting, so its asymptotic run time is independent of prior distribution dimension. We demonstrate this MaxEnt approach and compare with other likelihood-free inference methods across three systems: a point particle moving in a gravitational field, a compartmental model of epidemic spread and finally molecular dynamics simulation of a protein.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Inferring Nighttime Satellite Imagery from Human Mobility

Nighttime lights satellite imagery has been used for decades as a uniform, global source of data for studying a wide range of socioeconomic factors. Recently, another more terrestrial source is producing data with similarly uniform global coverage: anonymous and aggregated smart phone location. This data, which measures the movement patterns of people and populations rather than the light they produce, could prove just as valuable in decades to come. In fact, since human mobility is far more directly related to the socioeconomic variables being predicted, it has an even greater potential. Additionally, since cell phone locations can be aggregated in real time while preserving individual user privacy, it will be possible to conduct studies that would previously have been impossible because they require data from the present. Of course, it will take quite some time to establish the new techniques necessary to apply human mobility data to problems traditionally studied with satellite imagery and to conceptualize and develop new real time applications. In this study we demonstrate that it is possible to accelerate this process by inferring artificial nighttime satellite imagery from human mobility data, while maintaining a strong differential privacy guarantee. We also show that these artificial maps can be used to infer socioeconomic variables, often with greater accuracy than using actual satellite imagery. Along the way, we find that the relationship between mobility and light emissions is both nonlinear and varies considerably around the globe. Finally, we show that models based on human mobility can significantly improve our understanding of society at a global scale.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Necessity of ventilation for mitigating virus transmission quantified simply

To mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, officials have employed social distancing and stay-at-home measures, with increased attention to room ventilation emerging only more recently. Effective distancing practices for open spaces can be ineffective for poorly ventilated spaces, both of which are commonly filled with turbulent air. This is typical for indoor spaces that use mixing ventilation. While turbulence initially reduces the risk of infection near a virion-source, it eventually increases the exposure risk for all occupants in a space without ventilation. To complement detailed models aimed at precision, minimalist frameworks are useful to facilitate order of magnitude estimates for how much ventilation provides safety, particularly when circumstances require practical decisions with limited options. Applying basic principles of transport and diffusion, we estimate the time-scale for virions injected into a room of turbulent air to infect an occupant, distinguishing cases of low vs. high initial virion mass loads and virion-destroying vs. virion-reflecting walls. We consider the effect of an open window as a proxy for ventilation. When the airflow is dominated by isotropic turbulence, the minimum area needed to ensure safety depends only on the ratio of total viral load to threshold load for infection. The minimalist estimates here convey simply that the equivalent of ventilation by modest sized open window in classrooms and workplaces significantly improves safety.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

Impact of temporal scales and recurrent mobility patterns on the unfolding of epidemics

Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Thus, the inclusion of human movements into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes and to design efficient prevention policies. Following this challenge, here we develop a Markovian framework which enables to address the impact of recurrent mobility patterns on the epidemic onset at different temporal scales. This formalism is validated by comparing their predictions with results from mechanistic simulations. The fair agreement between both theory and simulations enables to get an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold which captures the critical conditions triggering epidemic outbreaks. Finally, by performing an exhaustive analysis of this epidemic threshold, we reveal that the impact of tuning human mobility on the emergence of diseases is strongly affected by the temporal scales associated to both epidemiological and mobility processes.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access