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Evgeny Burnaev

Evgeny Burnaev contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

37 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Bug or Feature$^2$: Weight Drift, Activation Sparsity, and Spikes

The design of modern neural architectures has converged through incremental empirical choices, yet the mechanisms governing their training dynamics remain only partially understood. We identify and analyze a negative weight drift induced by the interaction between standard losses and positively biased activation functions. We prove that under MSE or cross-entropy loss, the gradient with respect to positive pre-activations is non-negative in expectation at initialization, driving downstream weights toward negative values during early training. The drift is intrinsic to optimization rather than data, and persists across architectures (MLP, ResNet, ViT, GPT-nano, MP-SENe) and asymmetric activation functions (ReLU, GELU, SiLU). Coupled with ReLU, weight drift produces activation sparsity reaching up to 90\% in GPT-nano. We characterize the sparsity-accuracy tradeoff across 79 configurations and identify a sharp accuracy cliff above $\sim$70\% activation sparsity. While ReLU$^2$ achieves a good sparsity--accuracy ratio in GPT-nano, it pathologically amplifies identified activation spikes in intermediate transformer layers. Clipping resolves this while preserving the representational benefits of squaring: clipped ReLU$^2$ outperforms its unclipped version, and GELU$^2$ achieves the lowest validation loss on GPT-nano. Code is available at https://github.com/On-Point-RND/BugOrFeature.

preprint2026arXiv

CADFS: A Big CAD Program Dataset and Framework for Computer-Aided Design with Large Language Models

We introduce CADFS, a data-centric framework that enables large vision-language models to generate complex CAD design histories. Existing generative CAD systems are restricted to sketch-extrude operations due to simplified representations and limited datasets. We address this by introducing a FeatureScript-based representation and constructing a dataset of 450k real-world CAD models spanning 15 modeling operations. We obtain the dataset via a new pipeline that reconstructs clean, executable FeatureScript programs and provides multimodal annotations. Fine-tuning a VLM on this representation yields state-of-the-art results in text-conditioned CAD generation and image-based reconstruction, producing more accurate, diverse, and feature-rich designs than prior frameworks. Ablations show that each individual component of our framework, i.e., the FeatureScript representation, the extended operation set, and representation-aligned textual descriptions, significantly improves performance. Our framework substantially broadens the complexity and realism achievable in generative CAD. The CADFS framework and the new dataset are available at https://voyleg.github.io/cadfs/.

preprint2026arXiv

PersonalAI 2.0: Enhancing knowledge graph traversal/retrieval with planning mechanism for Personalized LLM Agents

We introduce PersonalAI 2.0 (PAI-2), a novel framework, designed to enhance large language model (LLM) based systems through integration of external knowledge graphs (KG). The proposed approach addresses key limitations of existing Graph Retrieval-Augmented Generation (GraphRAG) methods by incorporating a dynamic, multistage query processing pipeline. The central point of PAI-2 design is its ability to perform adaptive, iterative information search, guided by extracted entities, matched graph vertices and generated clue-queries. Conducted evaluation over six benchmarks (Natural Questions, TriviaQA, HotpotQA, 2WikiMultihopQA, MuSiQue and DiaASQ) demonstrates improvement in factual correctness of generating answers compared to analogues methods (LightRAG, RAPTOR, and HippoRAG 2). PAI-2 achieves 4% average gain by LLM-as-a-Judge across four benchmarks, reflecting its effectiveness in reducing hallucination rates and increasing precision. We show that use of graph traversal algorithms (e.g. BeamSearch, WaterCircles) gain superior results compared to standard flatten retriever on average 6%, while enabled search plan enhancement mechanism gain 18% boost compared to disabled one by LLM-as-a-Judge across six datasets. In addition, ablation study reveals that PAI-2 achieves the SOTA result on MINE-1 benchmark, achieving 89% information-retention score, using LLMs from 7-14B tiers. Collectively, these findings underscore the potential of PAI-2 to serve as a foundational model for next-generation personalized AI applications, requiring scalable, context-aware knowledge representation and reasoning capabilities.

preprint2026arXiv

Prior Knowledge or Search? A Study of LLM Agents in Hardware-Aware Code Optimization

LLM discovery and optimization systems are increasingly applied across domains, implementing a common propose-evaluate-revise loop. Such optimization or discovery progresses via context conditioning on received feedback from an environment. However, as modern LLM agents are increasingly complex in their structure, it is difficult to evaluate which components contribute the most, and when and how this exploration may fail. We answer these questions through three controlled experiments. Our findings: (1) In pure black-box optimization, LLMs act as greedy optimizers. (2) In zero-shot kernel generation, providing explicit input-size information has no measurable effect, models converge to the same kernel parameters regardless of size or temperature, as though the size instruction were invisible. Moreover, when tasked to perform kernel optimization for uncommon kernel sizes, performance sharply degrades regardless of the language used. (3) In feedback-loop kernel optimization, CUDA improves monotonically under iterative feedback, while TVM IR actively degrades, which demonstrates that kernel optimization degrades when models operate with low-density language. Our results conclude that LLMs in code optimization tasks highly depend on pretrained priors rather than provided feedback or agentic structure.

preprint2024arXiv

SeqNAS: Neural Architecture Search for Event Sequence Classification

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) methods are widely used in various industries to obtain high quality taskspecific solutions with minimal human intervention. Event Sequences find widespread use in various industrial applications including churn prediction customer segmentation fraud detection and fault diagnosis among others. Such data consist of categorical and real-valued components with irregular timestamps. Despite the usefulness of NAS methods previous approaches only have been applied to other domains images texts or time series. Our work addresses this limitation by introducing a novel NAS algorithm SeqNAS specifically designed for event sequence classification. We develop a simple yet expressive search space that leverages commonly used building blocks for event sequence classification including multihead self attention convolutions and recurrent cells. To perform the search we adopt sequential Bayesian Optimization and utilize previously trained models as an ensemble of teachers to augment knowledge distillation. As a result of our work we demonstrate that our method surpasses state of the art NAS methods and popular architectures suitable for sequence classification and holds great potential for various industrial applications.

preprint2023arXiv

Kantorovich Strikes Back! Wasserstein GANs are not Optimal Transport?

Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks (WGANs) are the popular generative models built on the theory of Optimal Transport (OT) and the Kantorovich duality. Despite the success of WGANs, it is still unclear how well the underlying OT dual solvers approximate the OT cost (Wasserstein-1 distance, $\mathbb{W}_{1}$) and the OT gradient needed to update the generator. In this paper, we address these questions. We construct 1-Lipschitz functions and use them to build ray monotone transport plans. This strategy yields pairs of continuous benchmark distributions with the analytically known OT plan, OT cost and OT gradient in high-dimensional spaces such as spaces of images. We thoroughly evaluate popular WGAN dual form solvers (gradient penalty, spectral normalization, entropic regularization, etc.) using these benchmark pairs. Even though these solvers perform well in WGANs, none of them faithfully compute $\mathbb{W}_{1}$ in high dimensions. Nevertheless, many provide a meaningful approximation of the OT gradient. These observations suggest that these solvers should not be treated as good estimators of $\mathbb{W}_{1}$, but to some extent they indeed can be used in variational problems requiring the minimization of $\mathbb{W}_{1}$.

preprint2023arXiv

Wasserstein Iterative Networks for Barycenter Estimation

Wasserstein barycenters have become popular due to their ability to represent the average of probability measures in a geometrically meaningful way. In this paper, we present an algorithm to approximate the Wasserstein-2 barycenters of continuous measures via a generative model. Previous approaches rely on regularization (entropic/quadratic) which introduces bias or on input convex neural networks which are not expressive enough for large-scale tasks. In contrast, our algorithm does not introduce bias and allows using arbitrary neural networks. In addition, based on the celebrity faces dataset, we construct Ave, celeba! dataset which can be used for quantitative evaluation of barycenter algorithms by using standard metrics of generative models such as FID.

preprint2022arXiv

3D Parametric Wireframe Extraction Based on Distance Fields

We present a pipeline for parametric wireframe extraction from densely sampled point clouds. Our approach processes a scalar distance field that represents proximity to the nearest sharp feature curve. In intermediate stages, it detects corners, constructs curve segmentation, and builds a topological graph fitted to the wireframe. As an output, we produce parametric spline curves that can be edited and sampled arbitrarily. We evaluate our method on 50 complex 3D shapes and compare it to the novel deep learning-based technique, demonstrating superior quality.

preprint2022arXiv

DEF: Deep Estimation of Sharp Geometric Features in 3D Shapes

We propose Deep Estimators of Features (DEFs), a learning-based framework for predicting sharp geometric features in sampled 3D shapes. Differently from existing data-driven methods, which reduce this problem to feature classification, we propose to regress a scalar field representing the distance from point samples to the closest feature line on local patches. Our approach is the first that scales to massive point clouds by fusing distance-to-feature estimates obtained on individual patches. We extensively evaluate our approach against related state-of-the-art methods on newly proposed synthetic and real-world 3D CAD model benchmarks. Our approach not only outperforms these (with improvements in Recall and False Positives Rates), but generalizes to real-world scans after training our model on synthetic data and fine-tuning it on a small dataset of scanned data. We demonstrate a downstream application, where we reconstruct an explicit representation of straight and curved sharp feature lines from range scan data.

preprint2022arXiv

Generative Modeling with Optimal Transport Maps

With the discovery of Wasserstein GANs, Optimal Transport (OT) has become a powerful tool for large-scale generative modeling tasks. In these tasks, OT cost is typically used as the loss for training GANs. In contrast to this approach, we show that the OT map itself can be used as a generative model, providing comparable performance. Previous analogous approaches consider OT maps as generative models only in the latent spaces due to their poor performance in the original high-dimensional ambient space. In contrast, we apply OT maps directly in the ambient space, e.g., a space of high-dimensional images. First, we derive a min-max optimization algorithm to efficiently compute OT maps for the quadratic cost (Wasserstein-2 distance). Next, we extend the approach to the case when the input and output distributions are located in the spaces of different dimensions and derive error bounds for the computed OT map. We evaluate the algorithm on image generation and unpaired image restoration tasks. In particular, we consider denoising, colorization, and inpainting, where the optimality of the restoration map is a desired attribute, since the output (restored) image is expected to be close to the input (degraded) one.

preprint2022arXiv

High Performance of Gradient Boosting in Binding Affinity Prediction

Prediction of protein-ligand (PL) binding affinity remains the key to drug discovery. Popular approaches in recent years involve graph neural networks (GNNs), which are used to learn the topology and geometry of PL complexes. However, GNNs are computationally heavy and have poor scalability to graph sizes. On the other hand, traditional machine learning (ML) approaches, such as gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs), are lightweight yet extremely efficient for tabular data. We propose to use PL interaction features along with PL graph-level features in GBDT. We show that this combination outperforms the existing solutions.

preprint2022arXiv

NPBG++: Accelerating Neural Point-Based Graphics

We present a new system (NPBG++) for the novel view synthesis (NVS) task that achieves high rendering realism with low scene fitting time. Our method efficiently leverages the multiview observations and the point cloud of a static scene to predict a neural descriptor for each point, improving upon the pipeline of Neural Point-Based Graphics in several important ways. By predicting the descriptors with a single pass through the source images, we lift the requirement of per-scene optimization while also making the neural descriptors view-dependent and more suitable for scenes with strong non-Lambertian effects. In our comparisons, the proposed system outperforms previous NVS approaches in terms of fitting and rendering runtimes while producing images of similar quality.

preprint2022arXiv

Scan2Part: Fine-grained and Hierarchical Part-level Understanding of Real-World 3D Scans

We propose Scan2Part, a method to segment individual parts of objects in real-world, noisy indoor RGB-D scans. To this end, we vary the part hierarchies of objects in indoor scenes and explore their effect on scene understanding models. Specifically, we use a sparse U-Net-based architecture that captures the fine-scale detail of the underlying 3D scan geometry by leveraging a multi-scale feature hierarchy. In order to train our method, we introduce the Scan2Part dataset, which is the first large-scale collection providing detailed semantic labels at the part level in the real-world setting. In total, we provide 242,081 correspondences between 53,618 PartNet parts of 2,477 ShapeNet objects and 1,506 ScanNet scenes, at two spatial resolutions of 2 cm$^3$ and 5 cm$^3$. As output, we are able to predict fine-grained per-object part labels, even when the geometry is coarse or partially missing.

preprint2022arXiv

Towards OOD Detection in Graph Classification from Uncertainty Estimation Perspective

The problem of out-of-distribution detection for graph classification is far from being solved. The existing models tend to be overconfident about OOD examples or completely ignore the detection task. In this work, we consider this problem from the uncertainty estimation perspective and perform the comparison of several recently proposed methods. In our experiment, we find that there is no universal approach for OOD detection, and it is important to consider both graph representations and predictive categorical distribution.

preprint2022arXiv

Transfer learning for ensembles: reducing computation time and keeping the diversity

Transferring a deep neural network trained on one problem to another requires only a small amount of data and little additional computation time. The same behaviour holds for ensembles of deep learning models typically superior to a single model. However, a transfer of deep neural networks ensemble demands relatively high computational expenses. The probability of overfitting also increases. Our approach for the transfer learning of ensembles consists of two steps: (a) shifting weights of encoders of all models in the ensemble by a single shift vector and (b) doing a tiny fine-tuning for each individual model afterwards. This strategy leads to a speed-up of the training process and gives an opportunity to add models to an ensemble with significantly reduced training time using the shift vector. We compare different strategies by computation time, the accuracy of an ensemble, uncertainty estimation and disagreement and conclude that our approach gives competitive results using the same computation complexity in comparison with the traditional approach. Also, our method keeps the ensemble's models' diversity higher.

preprint2021arXiv

Continuous Wasserstein-2 Barycenter Estimation without Minimax Optimization

Wasserstein barycenters provide a geometric notion of the weighted average of probability measures based on optimal transport. In this paper, we present a scalable algorithm to compute Wasserstein-2 barycenters given sample access to the input measures, which are not restricted to being discrete. While past approaches rely on entropic or quadratic regularization, we employ input convex neural networks and cycle-consistency regularization to avoid introducing bias. As a result, our approach does not resort to minimax optimization. We provide theoretical analysis on error bounds as well as empirical evidence of the effectiveness of the proposed approach in low-dimensional qualitative scenarios and high-dimensional quantitative experiments.

preprint2021arXiv

Denoising Score Matching with Random Fourier Features

The density estimation is one of the core problems in statistics. Despite this, existing techniques like maximum likelihood estimation are computationally inefficient due to the intractability of the normalizing constant. For this reason an interest to score matching has increased being independent on the normalizing constant. However, such estimator is consistent only for distributions with the full space support. One of the approaches to make it consistent is to add noise to the input data which is called Denoising Score Matching. In this work we derive analytical expression for the Denoising Score matching using the Kernel Exponential Family as a model distribution. The usage of the kernel exponential family is motivated by the richness of this class of densities. To tackle the computational complexity we use Random Fourier Features based approximation of the kernel function. The analytical expression allows to drop additional regularization terms based on the higher-order derivatives as they are already implicitly included. Moreover, the obtained expression explicitly depends on the noise variance, so the validation loss can be straightforwardly used to tune the noise level. Along with benchmark experiments, the model was tested on various synthetic distributions to study the behaviour of the model in different cases. The empirical study shows comparable quality to the competing approaches, while the proposed method being computationally faster. The latter one enables scaling up to complex high-dimensional data.

preprint2020arXiv

An industry case of large-scale demand forecasting of hierarchical components

Demand forecasting of hierarchical components is essential in manufacturing. However, its discussion in the machine-learning literature has been limited, and judgemental forecasts remain pervasive in the industry. Demand planners require easy-to-understand tools capable of delivering state-of-the-art results. This work presents an industry case of demand forecasting at one of the largest manufacturers of electronics in the world. It seeks to support practitioners with five contributions: (1) A benchmark of fourteen demand forecast methods applied to a relevant data set, (2) A data transformation technique yielding comparable results with state of the art, (3) An alternative to ARIMA based on matrix factorization, (4) A model selection technique based on topological data analysis for time series and (5) A novel data set. Organizations seeking to up-skill existing personnel and increase forecast accuracy will find value in this work.

preprint2020arXiv

Bayesian Generative Models for Knowledge Transfer in MRI Semantic Segmentation Problems

Automatic segmentation methods based on deep learning have recently demonstrated state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the ordinary methods. Nevertheless, these methods are inapplicable for small datasets, which are very common in medical problems. To this end, we propose a knowledge transfer method between diseases via the Generative Bayesian Prior network. Our approach is compared to a pre-train approach and random initialization and obtains the best results in terms of Dice Similarity Coefficient metric for the small subsets of the Brain Tumor Segmentation 2018 database (BRATS2018).

preprint2020arXiv

Bayesian Sparsification Methods for Deep Complex-valued Networks

With continual miniaturization ever more applications of deep learning can be found in embedded systems, where it is common to encounter data with natural complex domain representation. To this end we extend Sparse Variational Dropout to complex-valued neural networks and verify the proposed Bayesian technique by conducting a large numerical study of the performance-compression trade-off of C-valued networks on two tasks: image recognition on MNIST-like and CIFAR10 datasets and music transcription on MusicNet. We replicate the state-of-the-art result by Trabelsi et al. [2018] on MusicNet with a complex-valued network compressed by 50-100x at a small performance penalty.

preprint2020arXiv

CAD-Deform: Deformable Fitting of CAD Models to 3D Scans

Shape retrieval and alignment are a promising avenue towards turning 3D scans into lightweight CAD representations that can be used for content creation such as mobile or AR/VR gaming scenarios. Unfortunately, CAD model retrieval is limited by the availability of models in standard 3D shape collections (e.g., ShapeNet). In this work, we address this shortcoming by introducing CAD-Deform, a method which obtains more accurate CAD-to-scan fits by non-rigidly deforming retrieved CAD models. Our key contribution is a new non-rigid deformation model incorporating smooth transformations and preservation of sharp features, that simultaneously achieves very tight fits from CAD models to the 3D scan and maintains the clean, high-quality surface properties of hand-modeled CAD objects. A series of thorough experiments demonstrate that our method achieves significantly tighter scan-to-CAD fits, allowing a more accurate digital replica of the scanned real-world environment while preserving important geometric features present in synthetic CAD environments.

preprint2020arXiv

Data-driven models and computational tools for neurolinguistics: a language technology perspective

In this paper, our focus is the connection and influence of language technologies on the research in neurolinguistics. We present a review of brain imaging-based neurolinguistic studies with a focus on the natural language representations, such as word embeddings and pre-trained language models. Mutual enrichment of neurolinguistics and language technologies leads to development of brain-aware natural language representations. The importance of this research area is emphasized by medical applications.

preprint2020arXiv

Deep Vectorization of Technical Drawings

We present a new method for vectorization of technical line drawings, such as floor plans, architectural drawings, and 2D CAD images. Our method includes (1) a deep learning-based cleaning stage to eliminate the background and imperfections in the image and fill in missing parts, (2) a transformer-based network to estimate vector primitives, and (3) optimization procedure to obtain the final primitive configurations. We train the networks on synthetic data, renderings of vector line drawings, and manually vectorized scans of line drawings. Our method quantitatively and qualitatively outperforms a number of existing techniques on a collection of representative technical drawings.

preprint2020arXiv

DeepFolio: Convolutional Neural Networks for Portfolios with Limit Order Book Data

This work proposes DeepFolio, a new model for deep portfolio management based on data from limit order books (LOB). DeepFolio solves problems found in the state-of-the-art for LOB data to predict price movements. Our evaluation consists of two scenarios using a large dataset of millions of time series. The improvements deliver superior results both in cases of abundant as well as scarce data. The experiments show that DeepFolio outperforms the state-of-the-art on the benchmark FI-2010 LOB. Further, we use DeepFolio for optimal portfolio allocation of crypto-assets with rebalancing. For this purpose, we use two loss-functions - Sharpe ratio loss and minimum volatility risk. We show that DeepFolio outperforms widely used portfolio allocation techniques in the literature.

preprint2020arXiv

Geometric Attention for Prediction of Differential Properties in 3D Point Clouds

Estimation of differential geometric quantities in discrete 3D data representations is one of the crucial steps in the geometry processing pipeline. Specifically, estimating normals and sharp feature lines from raw point cloud helps improve meshing quality and allows us to use more precise surface reconstruction techniques. When designing a learnable approach to such problems, the main difficulty is selecting neighborhoods in a point cloud and incorporating geometric relations between the points. In this study, we present a geometric attention mechanism that can provide such properties in a learnable fashion. We establish the usefulness of the proposed technique with several experiments on the prediction of normal vectors and the extraction of feature lines.

preprint2020arXiv

Graph Neural Networks for Model Recommendation using Time Series Data

Time series prediction aims to predict future values to help stakeholders make proper strategic decisions. This problem is relevant in all industries and areas, ranging from financial data to demand to forecast. However, it remains challenging for practitioners to select the appropriate model to use for forecasting tasks. With this in mind, we present a model architecture based on Graph Neural Networks to provide model recommendations for time series forecasting. We validate our approach on three relevant datasets and compare it against more than sixteen techniques. Our study shows that the proposed method performs better than target baselines and state of the art, including meta-learning. The results show the relevancy and suitability of GNN as methods for model recommendations in time series forecasting.

preprint2020arXiv

Latent Video Transformer

The video generation task can be formulated as a prediction of future video frames given some past frames. Recent generative models for videos face the problem of high computational requirements. Some models require up to 512 Tensor Processing Units for parallel training. In this work, we address this problem via modeling the dynamics in a latent space. After the transformation of frames into the latent space, our model predicts latent representation for the next frames in an autoregressive manner. We demonstrate the performance of our approach on BAIR Robot Pushing and Kinetics-600 datasets. The approach tends to reduce requirements to 8 Graphical Processing Units for training the models while maintaining comparable generation quality.

preprint2020arXiv

Making DensePose fast and light

DensePose estimation task is a significant step forward for enhancing user experience computer vision applications ranging from augmented reality to cloth fitting. Existing neural network models capable of solving this task are heavily parameterized and a long way from being transferred to an embedded or mobile device. To enable Dense Pose inference on the end device with current models, one needs to support an expensive server-side infrastructure and have a stable internet connection. To make things worse, mobile and embedded devices do not always have a powerful GPU inside. In this work, we target the problem of redesigning the DensePose R-CNN model's architecture so that the final network retains most of its accuracy but becomes more light-weight and fast. To achieve that, we tested and incorporated many deep learning innovations from recent years, specifically performing an ablation study on 23 efficient backbone architectures, multiple two-stage detection pipeline modifications, and custom model quantization methods. As a result, we achieved $17\times$ model size reduction and $2\times$ latency improvement compared to the baseline model.

preprint2020arXiv

NAS-Bench-NLP: Neural Architecture Search Benchmark for Natural Language Processing

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is a promising and rapidly evolving research area. Training a large number of neural networks requires an exceptional amount of computational power, which makes NAS unreachable for those researchers who have limited or no access to high-performance clusters and supercomputers. A few benchmarks with precomputed neural architectures performances have been recently introduced to overcome this problem and ensure more reproducible experiments. However, these benchmarks are only for the computer vision domain and, thus, are built from the image datasets and convolution-derived architectures. In this work, we step outside the computer vision domain by leveraging the language modeling task, which is the core of natural language processing (NLP). Our main contribution is as follows: we have provided search space of recurrent neural networks on the text datasets and trained 14k architectures within it; we have conducted both intrinsic and extrinsic evaluation of the trained models using datasets for semantic relatedness and language understanding evaluation; finally, we have tested several NAS algorithms to demonstrate how the precomputed results can be utilized. We believe that our results have high potential of usage for both NAS and NLP communities.

preprint2020arXiv

Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks help to predict location of Earthquakes

We examine the applicability of modern neural network architectures to the midterm prediction of earthquakes. Our data-based classification model aims to predict if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold takes place at a given area of size $10 \times 10$ kilometers in $10$-$60$ days from a given moment. Our deep neural network model has a recurrent part (LSTM) that accounts for time dependencies between earthquakes and a convolutional part that accounts for spatial dependencies. Obtained results show that neural networks-based models beat baseline feature-based models that also account for spatio-temporal dependencies between different earthquakes. For historical data on Japan earthquakes our model predicts occurrence of an earthquake in $10$ to $60$ days from a given moment with magnitude $M_c > 5$ with quality metrics ROC AUC $0.975$ and PR AUC $0.0890$, making $1.18 \cdot 10^3$ correct predictions, while missing $2.09 \cdot 10^3$ earthquakes and making $192 \cdot 10^3$ false alarms. The baseline approach has similar ROC AUC $0.992$, number of correct predictions $1.19 \cdot 10^3$, and missing $2.07 \cdot 10^3$ earthquakes, but significantly worse PR AUC $0.00911$, and number of false alarms $1004 \cdot 10^3$.

preprint2020arXiv

Software System for Road Condition Forecast Correction

In this paper, we present a monitoring system that allows increasing road safety by predicting ice formation. The system consists of a network of road weather stations and intelligence data processing program module. The results were achieved by combining physical models for forecasting road conditions based on measurements from stations and machine learning models for detecting incorrect data and forecast correction.

preprint2020arXiv

Tensor Completion via Gaussian Process Based Initialization

In this paper, we consider the tensor completion problem representing the solution in the tensor train (TT) format. It is assumed that tensor is high-dimensional, and tensor values are generated by an unknown smooth function. The assumption allows us to develop an efficient initialization scheme based on Gaussian Process Regression and TT-cross approximation technique. The proposed approach can be used in conjunction with any optimization algorithm that is usually utilized in tensor completion problems. We empirically justify that in this case the reconstruction error improves compared to the tensor completion with random initialization. As an additional benefit, our technique automatically selects rank thanks to using the TT-cross approximation technique.

preprint2020arXiv

Topological Data Analysis for Portfolio Management of Cryptocurrencies

Portfolio management is essential for any investment decision. Yet, traditional methods in the literature are ill-suited for the characteristics and dynamics of cryptocurrencies. This work presents a method to build an investment portfolio consisting of more than 1500 cryptocurrencies covering 6 years of market data. It is centred around Topological Data Analysis (TDA), a recent approach to analyze data sets from the perspective of their topological structure. This publication proposes a system combining persistence landscapes to identify suitable investment opportunities in cryptocurrencies. Using a novel and comprehensive data set of cryptocurrency prices, this research shows that the proposed system enables analysts to outperform a classic method from the literature without requiring any feature engineering or domain knowledge in TDA. This work thus introduces TDA-based portfolio management of cryptocurrencies as a viable tool for the practitioner.

preprint2020arXiv

Topology-based Clusterwise Regression for User Segmentation and Demand Forecasting

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) is a recent approach to analyze data sets from the perspective of their topological structure. Its use for time series data has been limited. In this work, a system developed for a leading provider of cloud computing combining both user segmentation and demand forecasting is presented. It consists of a TDA-based clustering method for time series inspired by a popular managerial framework for customer segmentation and extended to the case of clusterwise regression using matrix factorization methods to forecast demand. Increasing customer loyalty and producing accurate forecasts remain active topics of discussion both for researchers and managers. Using a public and a novel proprietary data set of commercial data, this research shows that the proposed system enables analysts to both cluster their user base and plan demand at a granular level with significantly higher accuracy than a state of the art baseline. This work thus seeks to introduce TDA-based clustering of time series and clusterwise regression with matrix factorization methods as viable tools for the practitioner.

preprint2020arXiv

Towards forecast techniques for business analysts of large commercial data sets using matrix factorization methods

This research article suggests that there are significant benefits in exposing demand planners to forecasting methods using matrix completion techniques. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the field of forecasting with multivariate time series prediction by focusing on the dimension of large commercial data sets with hierarchies. This research highlights that there has neither been sufficient academic research in this sub-field nor dissemination among practitioners in the business sector. This study seeks to innovate by presenting a matrix completion method for short-term demand forecast of time series data on relevant commercial problems. Albeit computing intensive, this method outperforms the state of the art while remaining accessible to business users. The object of research is matrix completion for time series in a big data context within the industry. The subject of the research is forecasting product demand using techniques for multivariate hierarchical time series prediction that are both precise and accessible to non-technical business experts. Apart from a methodological innovation, this research seeks to introduce practitioners to novel methods for hierarchical multivariate time series prediction. The research outcome is of interest for organizations requiring precise forecasts yet lacking the appropriate human capital to develop them.

preprint2019arXiv

Latent-Space Laplacian Pyramids for Adversarial Representation Learning with 3D Point Clouds

Constructing high-quality generative models for 3D shapes is a fundamental task in computer vision with diverse applications in geometry processing, engineering, and design. Despite the recent progress in deep generative modelling, synthesis of finely detailed 3D surfaces, such as high-resolution point clouds, from scratch has not been achieved with existing approaches. In this work, we propose to employ the latent-space Laplacian pyramid representation within a hierarchical generative model for 3D point clouds. We combine the recently proposed latent-space GAN and Laplacian GAN architectures to form a multi-scale model capable of generating 3D point clouds at increasing levels of detail. Our evaluation demonstrates that our model outperforms the existing generative models for 3D point clouds.