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Researcher profile

Chris J. Maddison

Chris J. Maddison contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningArtificial IntelligenceInformation TheoryLogic in Computer Sciencemath.ITmath.OCMethodologyNeural and Evolutionary Computing

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Published work

12 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Bayesian Sensitivity of Causal Inference Estimators under Evidence-Based Priors

Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying assumptions. Existing frameworks for sensitivity analysis are concerned with worst-case changes in assumptions. In this work, we argue that using such pessimistic criteria can often become uninformative or lead to conclusions contradicting our prior knowledge about the world. To demonstrate this claim, we generalize the recent s-value framework (Gupta & Rothenhäusler, 2023) to estimate the sensitivity of three different common assumptions in causal inference. Empirically, we find that, indeed, worst-case conclusions about sensitivity can rely on unrealistic changes in the data-generating process. To overcome this, we extend the s-value framework with a new sensitivity analysis criterion: Bayesian Sensitivity Value (BSV), which computes the expected sensitivity of an estimate to assumption violations under priors constructed from real-world evidence. We use Monte Carlo approximations to estimate this quantity and illustrate its applicability in an observational study on the effect of diabetes treatments on weight loss.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

MixMin: Finding Data Mixtures via Convex Minimization

Modern machine learning pipelines are increasingly combining and mixing data from diverse and disparate sources, e.g., pre-training large language models. Yet, finding the optimal data mixture is a challenging and open problem. We formalize this data mixing problem as a bi-level objective: the best mixture is the one that would lead to the best model for a downstream objective. Unfortunately, this objective is generally intractable. In this paper, we make the observation that the bi-level data mixing objective becomes convex as our model class becomes larger. We develop and study a gradient-based approach for optimizing this convex objective, which we call MixMin, and test it on language modeling and chemistry tasks. MixMin was the only method that uniformly improved the data mixture in all our experiments. With MixMin, we improved the data mixture using less than 0.2% additional compute for a pythia-410M model trained on 8.2B tokens, resulting between 1-5% relative improvement to negative log likelihood on PIQA, ARC Easy, SciQ, and OpenWebMath. Crucially, we found that MixMin mixtures for smaller models improved training of larger models, suggesting that MixMin mixtures may be scale-invariant. When mixing bioassay data to train an XGBoost model, we saw improvements to average precision scores of 0.03-0.15.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Predicting Large Model Test Losses with a Noisy Quadratic System

We introduce a predictive model that estimates the pre-training loss of large models from model size (N), batch size (B) and number of weight updates (K). This is the first loss prediction model that can handle changing batch size. The model outperforms Chinchilla's loss model, a model of the test loss using the batch size and number of tokens, in terms of projecting the loss at extrapolated compute budgets (up to 1000 folds). A natural use of the model is to find optimal N, B, K configurations under explicit and compound resource constraints like time, memory and compute. In our experiments, the model-selected configurations are close to ground-truth optimal. Our work advocates for loss prediction as a better alternative to heuristic-based laws, which are growing in complexity. The implementation is available on https://github.com/chuningxdy/Noisy-Quadratic-System.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Augment with Care: Contrastive Learning for Combinatorial Problems

Supervised learning can improve the design of state-of-the-art solvers for combinatorial problems, but labelling large numbers of combinatorial instances is often impractical due to exponential worst-case complexity. Inspired by the recent success of contrastive pre-training for images, we conduct a scientific study of the effect of augmentation design on contrastive pre-training for the Boolean satisfiability problem. While typical graph contrastive pre-training uses label-agnostic augmentations, our key insight is that many combinatorial problems have well-studied invariances, which allow for the design of label-preserving augmentations. We find that label-preserving augmentations are critical for the success of contrastive pre-training. We show that our representations are able to achieve comparable test accuracy to fully-supervised learning while using only 1% of the labels. We also demonstrate that our representations are more transferable to larger problems from unseen domains. Our code is available at https://github.com/h4duan/contrastive-sat.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Bayesian Nonparametrics for Offline Skill Discovery

Skills or low-level policies in reinforcement learning are temporally extended actions that can speed up learning and enable complex behaviours. Recent work in offline reinforcement learning and imitation learning has proposed several techniques for skill discovery from a set of expert trajectories. While these methods are promising, the number K of skills to discover is always a fixed hyperparameter, which requires either prior knowledge about the environment or an additional parameter search to tune it. We first propose a method for offline learning of options (a particular skill framework) exploiting advances in variational inference and continuous relaxations. We then highlight an unexplored connection between Bayesian nonparametrics and offline skill discovery, and show how to obtain a nonparametric version of our model. This version is tractable thanks to a carefully structured approximate posterior with a dynamically-changing number of options, removing the need to specify K. We also show how our nonparametric extension can be applied in other skill frameworks, and empirically demonstrate that our method can outperform state-of-the-art offline skill learning algorithms across a variety of environments. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/BNPO .

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Learning Branching Heuristics for Propositional Model Counting

Propositional model counting, or #SAT, is the problem of computing the number of satisfying assignments of a Boolean formula. Many problems from different application areas, including many discrete probabilistic inference problems, can be translated into model counting problems to be solved by #SAT solvers. Exact #SAT solvers, however, are often not scalable to industrial size instances. In this paper, we present Neuro#, an approach for learning branching heuristics to improve the performance of exact #SAT solvers on instances from a given family of problems. We experimentally show that our method reduces the step count on similarly distributed held-out instances and generalizes to much larger instances from the same problem family. It is able to achieve these results on a number of different problem families having very different structures. In addition to step count improvements, Neuro# can also achieve orders of magnitude wall-clock speedups over the vanilla solver on larger instances in some problem families, despite the runtime overhead of querying the model.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Learning To Cut By Looking Ahead: Cutting Plane Selection via Imitation Learning

Cutting planes are essential for solving mixed-integer linear problems (MILPs), because they facilitate bound improvements on the optimal solution value. For selecting cuts, modern solvers rely on manually designed heuristics that are tuned to gauge the potential effectiveness of cuts. We show that a greedy selection rule explicitly looking ahead to select cuts that yield the best bound improvement delivers strong decisions for cut selection - but is too expensive to be deployed in practice. In response, we propose a new neural architecture (NeuralCut) for imitation learning on the lookahead expert. Our model outperforms standard baselines for cut selection on several synthetic MILP benchmarks. Experiments with a B&C solver for neural network verification further validate our approach, and exhibit the potential of learning methods in this setting.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Lossy Compression for Lossless Prediction

Most data is automatically collected and only ever "seen" by algorithms. Yet, data compressors preserve perceptual fidelity rather than just the information needed by algorithms performing downstream tasks. In this paper, we characterize the bit-rate required to ensure high performance on all predictive tasks that are invariant under a set of transformations, such as data augmentations. Based on our theory, we design unsupervised objectives for training neural compressors. Using these objectives, we train a generic image compressor that achieves substantial rate savings (more than $1000\times$ on ImageNet) compared to JPEG on 8 datasets, without decreasing downstream classification performance.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Optimal Representations for Covariate Shift

Machine learning systems often experience a distribution shift between training and testing. In this paper, we introduce a simple variational objective whose optima are exactly the set of all representations on which risk minimizers are guaranteed to be robust to any distribution shift that preserves the Bayes predictor, e.g., covariate shifts. Our objective has two components. First, a representation must remain discriminative for the task, i.e., some predictor must be able to simultaneously minimize the source and target risk. Second, the representation's marginal support needs to be the same across source and target. We make this practical by designing self-supervised objectives that only use unlabelled data and augmentations to train robust representations. Our objectives give insights into the robustness of CLIP, and further improve CLIP's representations to achieve SOTA results on DomainBed.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

The Machine Learning for Combinatorial Optimization Competition (ML4CO): Results and Insights

Combinatorial optimization is a well-established area in operations research and computer science. Until recently, its methods have focused on solving problem instances in isolation, ignoring that they often stem from related data distributions in practice. However, recent years have seen a surge of interest in using machine learning as a new approach for solving combinatorial problems, either directly as solvers or by enhancing exact solvers. Based on this context, the ML4CO aims at improving state-of-the-art combinatorial optimization solvers by replacing key heuristic components. The competition featured three challenging tasks: finding the best feasible solution, producing the tightest optimality certificate, and giving an appropriate solver configuration. Three realistic datasets were considered: balanced item placement, workload apportionment, and maritime inventory routing. This last dataset was kept anonymous for the contestants.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Gradient Estimation with Stochastic Softmax Tricks

The Gumbel-Max trick is the basis of many relaxed gradient estimators. These estimators are easy to implement and low variance, but the goal of scaling them comprehensively to large combinatorial distributions is still outstanding. Working within the perturbation model framework, we introduce stochastic softmax tricks, which generalize the Gumbel-Softmax trick to combinatorial spaces. Our framework is a unified perspective on existing relaxed estimators for perturbation models, and it contains many novel relaxations. We design structured relaxations for subset selection, spanning trees, arborescences, and others. When compared to less structured baselines, we find that stochastic softmax tricks can be used to train latent variable models that perform better and discover more latent structure.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

On Empirical Comparisons of Optimizers for Deep Learning

Selecting an optimizer is a central step in the contemporary deep learning pipeline. In this paper, we demonstrate the sensitivity of optimizer comparisons to the hyperparameter tuning protocol. Our findings suggest that the hyperparameter search space may be the single most important factor explaining the rankings obtained by recent empirical comparisons in the literature. In fact, we show that these results can be contradicted when hyperparameter search spaces are changed. As tuning effort grows without bound, more general optimizers should never underperform the ones they can approximate (i.e., Adam should never perform worse than momentum), but recent attempts to compare optimizers either assume these inclusion relationships are not practically relevant or restrict the hyperparameters in ways that break the inclusions. In our experiments, we find that inclusion relationships between optimizers matter in practice and always predict optimizer comparisons. In particular, we find that the popular adaptive gradient methods never underperform momentum or gradient descent. We also report practical tips around tuning often ignored hyperparameters of adaptive gradient methods and raise concerns about fairly benchmarking optimizers for neural network training.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access