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Chao Qu

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Nested Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical spatial priors, often failing to account for evolving temporal correlations and suffering from systematic errors. In this work, we propose a nested forecasting framework that couples future macro-level regional trends with micro-level historical observations, enabling top-down guidance from abstract future representations for fine-grained forecasting. Specifically, we employ a spectral clustering-based approach to construct semantically coherent regions, providing both theoretical and empirical evidence that this representation effectively filters systematic noise while preserving essential trends. Building on this, we develop a progressive coarse-to-fine predictor to integrate these representative features into the inference process. This enables the model to leverage trend predictions to anticipate dynamic anomalies, such as periodic offsets, in advance. Furthermore, extensive experiments on multiple high-dimensional datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating the effectiveness of future macro-guided nested forecasting.

preprint2022arXiv

A Meta Reinforcement Learning Approach for Predictive Autoscaling in the Cloud

Predictive autoscaling (autoscaling with workload forecasting) is an important mechanism that supports autonomous adjustment of computing resources in accordance with fluctuating workload demands in the Cloud. In recent works, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been introduced as a promising approach to learn the resource management policies to guide the scaling actions under the dynamic and uncertain cloud environment. However, RL methods face the following challenges in steering predictive autoscaling, such as lack of accuracy in decision-making, inefficient sampling and significant variability in workload patterns that may cause policies to fail at test time. To this end, we propose an end-to-end predictive meta model-based RL algorithm, aiming to optimally allocate resource to maintain a stable CPU utilization level, which incorporates a specially-designed deep periodic workload prediction model as the input and embeds the Neural Process to guide the learning of the optimal scaling actions over numerous application services in the Cloud. Our algorithm not only ensures the predictability and accuracy of the scaling strategy, but also enables the scaling decisions to adapt to the changing workloads with high sample efficiency. Our method has achieved significant performance improvement compared to the existing algorithms and has been deployed online at Alipay, supporting the autoscaling of applications for the world-leading payment platform.

preprint2022arXiv

DSOL: A Fast Direct Sparse Odometry Scheme

In this paper, we describe Direct Sparse Odometry Lite (DSOL), an improved version of Direct Sparse Odometry (DSO). We propose several algorithmic and implementation enhancements which speed up computation by a significant factor (on average 5x) even on resource constrained platforms. The increase in speed allows us to process images at higher frame rates, which in turn provides better results on rapid motions. Our open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/versatran01/dsol.

preprint2022arXiv

LLOL: Low-Latency Odometry for Spinning Lidars

In this paper, we present a low-latency odometry system designed for spinning lidars. Many existing lidar odometry methods wait for an entire sweep from the lidar before processing the data. This introduces a large delay between the first laser firing and its pose estimate. To reduce this latency, we treat the spinning lidar as a streaming sensor and process packets as they arrive. This effectively distributes expensive operations across time, resulting in a very fast and lightweight system with much higher throughput and lower latency. Our open-source implementation is available at \url{https://github.com/versatran01/llol}.

preprint2022arXiv

Variational Policy Propagation for Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

We propose a \emph{collaborative} multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm named variational policy propagation (VPP) to learn a \emph{joint} policy through the interactions over agents. We prove that the joint policy is a Markov Random Field under some mild conditions, which in turn reduces the policy space effectively. We integrate the variational inference as special differentiable layers in policy such that the actions can be efficiently sampled from the Markov Random Field and the overall policy is differentiable. We evaluate our algorithm on several large scale challenging tasks and demonstrate that it outperforms previous state-of-the-arts.

preprint2020arXiv

Model Embedding Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has shown its advantages in sample-efficiency over model-free reinforcement learning (MFRL). Despite the impressive results it achieves, it still faces a trade-off between the ease of data generation and model bias. In this paper, we propose a simple and elegant model-embedding model-based reinforcement learning (MEMB) algorithm in the framework of the probabilistic reinforcement learning. To balance the sample-efficiency and model bias, we exploit both real and imaginary data in the training. In particular, we embed the model in the policy update and learn $Q$ and $V$ functions from the real data set. We provide the theoretical analysis of MEMB with the Lipschitz continuity assumption on the model and policy. At last, we evaluate MEMB on several benchmarks and demonstrate our algorithm can achieve state-of-the-art performance.

preprint2019arXiv

SLOAM: Semantic Lidar Odometry and Mapping for Forest Inventory

This paper describes an end-to-end pipeline for tree diameter estimation based on semantic segmentation and lidar odometry and mapping. Accurate mapping of this type of environment is challenging since the ground and the trees are surrounded by leaves, thorns and vines, and the sensor typically experiences extreme motion. We propose a semantic feature based pose optimization that simultaneously refines the tree models while estimating the robot pose. The pipeline utilizes a custom virtual reality tool for labeling 3D scans that is used to train a semantic segmentation network. The masked point cloud is used to compute a trellis graph that identifies individual instances and extracts relevant features that are used by the SLAM module. We show that traditional lidar and image based methods fail in the forest environment on both Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and hand-carry systems, while our method is more robust, scalable, and automatically generates tree diameter estimations.

preprint2012arXiv

Dynamic Facial Expression of Emotion Made Easy

Facial emotion expression for virtual characters is used in a wide variety of areas. Often, the primary reason to use emotion expression is not to study emotion expression generation per se, but to use emotion expression in an application or research project. What is then needed is an easy to use and flexible, but also validated mechanism to do so. In this report we present such a mechanism. It enables developers to build virtual characters with dynamic affective facial expressions. The mechanism is based on Facial Action Coding. It is easy to implement, and code is available for download. To show the validity of the expressions generated with the mechanism we tested the recognition accuracy for 6 basic emotions (joy, anger, sadness, surprise, disgust, fear) and 4 blend emotions (enthusiastic, furious, frustrated, and evil). Additionally we investigated the effect of VC distance (z-coordinate), the effect of the VC's face morphology (male vs. female), the effect of a lateral versus a frontal presentation of the expression, and the effect of intensity of the expression. Participants (n=19, Western and Asian subjects) rated the intensity of each expression for each condition (within subject setup) in a non forced choice manner. All of the basic emotions were uniquely perceived as such. Further, the blends and confusion details of basic emotions are compatible with findings in psychology.