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Researcher profile

Carson Eisenach

Carson Eisenach contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningArtificial Intelligencemath.STMultiagent SystemsStatistics Theory

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Published work

5 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Deep RL Dual Sourcing Inventory Management with Supply and Capacity Risk Awareness

In this work, we study how to efficiently apply reinforcement learning (RL) for solving large-scale stochastic optimization problems by leveraging intervention models. The key of the proposed methodology is to better explore the solution space by simulating and composing the stochastic processes using pre-trained deep learning (DL) models. We demonstrate our approach on a challenging real-world application, the multi-sourcing multi-period inventory management problem in supply chain optimization. In particular, we employ deep RL models for learning and forecasting the stochastic supply chain processes under a range of assumptions. Moreover, we also introduce a constraint coordination mechanism, designed to forecast dual costs given the cross-products constraints in the inventory network. We highlight that instead of directly modeling the complex physical constraints into the RL optimization problem and solving the stochastic problem as a whole, our approach breaks down those supply chain processes into scalable and composable DL modules, leading to improved performance on large real-world datasets. We also outline open problems for future research to further investigate the efficacy of such models.

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preprint2026arXiv

Ready from Day 1: Population-Aware Coordination for Large-Scale Constrained Multi-Agent Systems

In large-scale multi-agent systems with shared resource constraints, an upstream planner must iteratively evaluate candidate resource plans -- assessing feasibility, aggregate response, and marginal cost -- before committing to one. Lagrangian relaxation separates local decisions through a broadcast cost signal, but the planner still needs the cost-to-utilization response map to explore plan space, and this map depends on population composition that changes across planning cycles. We propose \emph{population-aware coordination interfaces}: learned primal and dual maps, conditioned on compact population summaries, that the planner queries inside its iterative loop. The primal map predicts aggregate utilization under a proposed cost trajectory; the dual map predicts the cost trajectory for a target plan. By encoding response-relevant population structure, these maps remain reliable across evolving populations without per-cycle retraining, and support coordination of large populations from compact subsamples. We additionally cast Sim2Real transfer as a backtestable procedure, enabling evaluation before deployment. In a supply-chain capacity-control case study, population-aware interfaces reduce forecast error by 16--19\% and capacity violations by 20--51\% relative to population-unaware baselines under composition shift; 20K-agent cohorts support accurate coordination of 500K-agent populations; and simulator-trained primal maps achieve 11.1\% MAPE on real observations versus 13--24\% for baselines.

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preprint2022arXiv

MQRetNN: Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting with Retrieval Augmentation

Multi-horizon probabilistic time series forecasting has wide applicability to real-world tasks such as demand forecasting. Recent work in neural time-series forecasting mainly focus on the use of Seq2Seq architectures. For example, MQTransformer - an improvement of MQCNN - has shown the state-of-the-art performance in probabilistic demand forecasting. In this paper, we consider incorporating cross-entity information to enhance model performance by adding a cross-entity attention mechanism along with a retrieval mechanism to select which entities to attend over. We demonstrate how our new neural architecture, MQRetNN, leverages the encoded contexts from a pretrained baseline model on the entire population to improve forecasting accuracy. Using MQCNN as the baseline model (due to computational constraints, we do not use MQTransformer), we first show on a small demand forecasting dataset that it is possible to achieve ~3% improvement in test loss by adding a cross-entity attention mechanism where each entity attends to all others in the population. We then evaluate the model with our proposed retrieval methods - as a means of approximating an attention over a large population - on a large-scale demand forecasting application with over 2 million products and observe ~1% performance gain over the MQCNN baseline.

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preprint2022arXiv

MQTransformer: Multi-Horizon Forecasts with Context Dependent and Feedback-Aware Attention

Recent advances in neural forecasting have produced major improvements in accuracy for probabilistic demand prediction. In this work, we propose novel improvements to the current state of the art by incorporating changes inspired by recent advances in Transformer architectures for Natural Language Processing. We develop a novel decoder-encoder attention for context-alignment, improving forecasting accuracy by allowing the network to study its own history based on the context for which it is producing a forecast. We also present a novel positional encoding that allows the neural network to learn context-dependent seasonality functions as well as arbitrary holiday distances. Finally we show that the current state of the art MQ-Forecaster (Wen et al., 2017) models display excess variability by failing to leverage previous errors in the forecast to improve accuracy. We propose a novel decoder-self attention scheme for forecasting that produces significant improvements in the excess variation of the forecast.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

High-Dimensional Inference for Cluster-Based Graphical Models

Motivated by modern applications in which one constructs graphical models based on a very large number of features, this paper introduces a new class of cluster-based graphical models, in which variable clustering is applied as an initial step for reducing the dimension of the feature space. We employ model assisted clustering, in which the clusters contain features that are similar to the same unobserved latent variable. Two different cluster-based Gaussian graphical models are considered: the latent variable graph, corresponding to the graphical model associated with the unobserved latent variables, and the cluster-average graph, corresponding to the vector of features averaged over clusters. Our study reveals that likelihood based inference for the latent graph, not analyzed previously, is analytically intractable. Our main contribution is the development and analysis of alternative estimation and inference strategies, for the precision matrix of an unobservable latent vector $Z$. We replace the likelihood of the data by an appropriate class of empirical risk functions, that can be specialized to the latent graphical model and to the simpler, but under-analyzed, cluster-average graphical model. The estimators thus derived can be used for inference on the graph structure, for instance on edge strength or pattern recovery. Inference is based on the asymptotic limits of the entry-wise estimates of the precision matrices associated with the conditional independence graphs under consideration. While taking the uncertainty induced by the clustering step into account, we establish Berry-Esseen central limit theorems for the proposed estimators. It is noteworthy that, although the clusters are estimated adaptively from the data, the central limit theorems regarding the entries of the estimated graphs are proved under the same conditions one would use if the clusters were known....

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