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Benjamin Letham

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Machine Learning Applications Artificial Intelligence

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preprint2026arXiv

Embedding by Elicitation: Dynamic Representations for Bayesian Optimization of System Prompts

System prompts are a central control mechanism in modern AI systems, shaping behavior across conversations, tasks, and user populations. Yet they are difficult to tune when feedback is available only as aggregate metrics rather than per-example labels, failures, or critiques. We study this aggregate feedback setting as sample-constrained black-box optimization over discrete, variable-length text. We introduce ReElicit, a Bayesian optimization framework based on \emph{embedding by elicitation}. Given a task description, previously evaluated prompts, and scalar scores, an LLM elicits a compact, interpretable feature space and maps prompts into it. Leveraging a probabilistic Gaussian process surrogate, an acquisition function then selects target feature vectors, which the LLM realizes and refines into deployable system prompts. Re-eliciting the feature space as new evaluations arrive lets the representation adapt to the observed prompt-score history. We evaluate the setting using offline benchmark accuracy as a controlled aggregate proxy: the optimizer observes one scalar score per prompt and no per-example labels, errors, or critiques. Across ten system prompt optimization tasks with a 30 total evaluation budget, ReElicit achieves the strongest aggregate performance profile among representative aggregate-only prompt-optimization baselines. These results suggest that LLMs can serve as adaptive semantic representation builders, not only prompt generators, for Bayesian optimization over natural-language artifacts.

preprint2022arXiv

Look-Ahead Acquisition Functions for Bernoulli Level Set Estimation

Level set estimation (LSE) is the problem of identifying regions where an unknown function takes values above or below a specified threshold. Active sampling strategies for efficient LSE have primarily been studied in continuous-valued functions. Motivated by applications in human psychophysics where common experimental designs produce binary responses, we study LSE active sampling with Bernoulli outcomes. With Gaussian process classification surrogate models, the look-ahead model posteriors used by state-of-the-art continuous-output methods are intractable. However, we derive analytic expressions for look-ahead posteriors of sublevel set membership, and show how these lead to analytic expressions for a class of look-ahead LSE acquisition functions, including information-based methods. Benchmark experiments show the importance of considering the global look-ahead impact on the entire posterior. We demonstrate a clear benefit to using this new class of acquisition functions on benchmark problems, and on a challenging real-world task of estimating a high-dimensional contrast sensitivity function.

preprint2016arXiv

Bayesian Inference of Arrival Rate and Substitution Behavior from Sales Transaction Data with Stockouts

When an item goes out of stock, sales transaction data no longer reflect the original customer demand, since some customers leave with no purchase while others substitute alternative products for the one that was out of stock. Here we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring the underlying customer arrival rate and choice model from sales transaction data and the corresponding stock levels. The model uses a nonhomogeneous Poisson process to allow the arrival rate to vary throughout the day, and allows for a variety of choice models. Model parameters are inferred using a stochastic gradient MCMC algorithm that can scale to large transaction databases. We fit the model to data from a local bakery and show that it is able to make accurate out-of-sample predictions, and to provide actionable insight into lost cookie sales.

preprint2015arXiv

Interpretable classifiers using rules and Bayesian analysis: Building a better stroke prediction model

We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (e.g., if high blood pressure, then stroke) that discretize a high-dimensional, multivariate feature space into a series of simple, readily interpretable decision statements. We introduce a generative model called Bayesian Rule Lists that yields a posterior distribution over possible decision lists. It employs a novel prior structure to encourage sparsity. Our experiments show that Bayesian Rule Lists has predictive accuracy on par with the current top algorithms for prediction in machine learning. Our method is motivated by recent developments in personalized medicine, and can be used to produce highly accurate and interpretable medical scoring systems. We demonstrate this by producing an alternative to the CHADS$_2$ score, actively used in clinical practice for estimating the risk of stroke in patients that have atrial fibrillation. Our model is as interpretable as CHADS$_2$, but more accurate.