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Assaf Zeevi

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Machine Learning math.PR math.ST Statistics Theory Computation and Language quant-ph

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preprint2026arXiv

Adaptive Querying with AI Persona Priors

We study adaptive querying for learning user-dependent quantities of interest, such as responses to held-out items and psychometric indicators, within tight question budgets. Classical Bayesian design and computerized adaptive testing typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or expensive posterior approximations, limiting their use in heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and cold-start settings. We introduce a persona-induced latent variable model that represents a user's state through membership in a finite dictionary of AI personas, each offering response distributions produced by a large language model. This yields expressive priors with closed-form posterior updates and efficient finite-mixture predictions, enabling scalable Bayesian design for sequential item selection. Experiments on synthetic data and WorldValuesBench demonstrate that persona-based posteriors deliver accurate probabilistic predictions and an interpretable adaptive elicitation pipeline.

preprint2023arXiv

Complexity Analysis of a Countable-armed Bandit Problem

We consider a stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem motivated by ``large'' action spaces, and endowed with a population of arms containing exactly $K$ arm-types, each characterized by a distinct mean reward. The decision maker is oblivious to the statistical properties of reward distributions as well as the population-level distribution of different arm-types, and is precluded also from observing the type of an arm after play. We study the classical problem of minimizing the expected cumulative regret over a horizon of play $n$, and propose algorithms that achieve a rate-optimal finite-time instance-dependent regret of $\mathcal{O}\left( \log n \right)$. We also show that the instance-independent (minimax) regret is $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left( \sqrt{n} \right)$ when $K=2$. While the order of regret and complexity of the problem suggests a great degree of similarity to the classical MAB problem, properties of the performance bounds and salient aspects of algorithm design are quite distinct from the latter, as are the key primitives that determine complexity along with the analysis tools needed to study them.

preprint2021arXiv

Dynamic Pricing and Learning under the Bass Model

We consider a novel formulation of the dynamic pricing and demand learning problem, where the evolution of demand in response to posted prices is governed by a stochastic variant of the popular Bass model with parameters $α, β$ that are linked to the so-called "innovation" and "imitation" effects. Unlike the more commonly used i.i.d. and contextual demand models, in this model the posted price not only affects the demand and the revenue in the current round but also the future evolution of demand, and hence the fraction of potential market size $m$ that can be ultimately captured. In this paper, we consider the more challenging incomplete information problem where dynamic pricing is applied in conjunction with learning the unknown parameters, with the objective of optimizing the cumulative revenues over a given selling horizon of length $T$. Equivalently, the goal is to minimize the regret which measures the revenue loss of the algorithm relative to the optimal expected revenue achievable under the stochastic Bass model with market size $m$ and time horizon $T$. Our main contribution is the development of an algorithm that satisfies a high probability regret guarantee of order $\tilde O(m^{2/3})$; where the market size $m$ is known a priori. Moreover, we show that no algorithm can incur smaller order of loss by deriving a matching lower bound. Unlike most regret analysis results, in the present problem the market size $m$ is the fundamental driver of the complexity; our lower bound in fact, indicates that for any fixed $α, β$, most non-trivial instances of the problem have constant $T$ and large $m$. We believe that this insight sets the problem of dynamic pricing under the Bass model apart from the typical i.i.d. setting and multi-armed bandit based models for dynamic pricing, which typically focus only on the asymptotics with respect to time horizon $T$.

preprint2021arXiv

Learning to Stop with Surprisingly Few Samples

We consider a discounted infinite horizon optimal stopping problem. If the underlying distribution is known a priori, the solution of this problem is obtained via dynamic programming (DP) and is given by a well known threshold rule. When information on this distribution is lacking, a natural (though naive) approach is "explore-then-exploit," whereby the unknown distribution or its parameters are estimated over an initial exploration phase, and this estimate is then used in the DP to determine actions over the residual exploitation phase. We show: (i) with proper tuning, this approach leads to performance comparable to the full information DP solution; and (ii) despite common wisdom on the sensitivity of such "plug in" approaches in DP due to propagation of estimation errors, a surprisingly "short" (logarithmic in the horizon) exploration horizon suffices to obtain said performance. In cases where the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed, these observations are even more pronounced: a ${\it single \, sample}$ exploration phase suffices.

preprint2020arXiv

A Unified Approach for Solving Sequential Selection Problems

In this paper we develop a unified approach for solving a wide class of sequential selection problems. This class includes, but is not limited to, selection problems with no-information, rank-dependent rewards, and considers both fixed as well as random problem horizons. The proposed framework is based on a reduction of the original selection problem to one of optimal stopping for a sequence of judiciously constructed independent random variables. We demonstrate that our approach allows exact and efficient computation of optimal policies and various performance metrics thereof for a variety of sequential selection problems, several of which have not been solved to date.

preprint2020arXiv

Discriminative Learning via Adaptive Questioning

We consider the problem of designing an adaptive sequence of questions that optimally classify a candidate's ability into one of several categories or discriminative grades. A candidate's ability is modeled as an unknown parameter, which, together with the difficulty of the question asked, determines the likelihood with which s/he is able to answer a question correctly. The learning algorithm is only able to observe these noisy responses to its queries. We consider this problem from a fixed confidence-based $δ$-correct framework, that in our setting seeks to arrive at the correct ability discrimination at the fastest possible rate while guaranteeing that the probability of error is less than a pre-specified and small $δ$. In this setting we develop lower bounds on any sequential questioning strategy and develop geometrical insights into the problem structure both from primal and dual formulation. In addition, we arrive at algorithms that essentially match these lower bounds. Our key conclusions are that, asymptotically, any candidate needs to be asked questions at most at two (candidate ability-specific) levels, although, in a reasonably general framework, questions need to be asked only at a single level. Further, and interestingly, the problem structure facilitates endogenous exploration, so there is no need for a separately designed exploration stage in the algorithm.

preprint2010arXiv

Nonparametric Bandits with Covariates

We consider a bandit problem which involves sequential sampling from two populations (arms). Each arm produces a noisy reward realization which depends on an observable random covariate. The goal is to maximize cumulative expected reward. We derive general lower bounds on the performance of any admissible policy, and develop an algorithm whose performance achieves the order of said lower bound up to logarithmic terms. This is done by decomposing the global problem into suitably "localized" bandit problems. Proofs blend ideas from nonparametric statistics and traditional methods used in the bandit literature.

preprint2000arXiv

Security of Quantum Key Distribution with Entangled Photons Against Individual Attacks

Security of the Ekert protocol is proven against individual attacks where an eavesdropper is allowed to share any density matrix with the two communicating parties. The density matrix spans all of the photon number states of both receivers, as well as a probe state of arbitrary dimensionality belonging to the eavesdropper. Using this general eavesdropping strategy, we show that the Shannon information on the final key, after error correction and privacy amplification, can be made exponentially small. This is done by finding a bound on the eavesdropper's average collision probability. We find that the average collision probability for the Ekert protocol is the same as that of the BB84 protocol for single photons, indicating that there is no analog in the Ekert protocol to photon splitting attacks. We then compare the communication rate of both protocols as a function of distance, and show that the Ekert protocol has potential for much longer communication distances, up to 170km, in the presence of realistic detector dark counts and channel loss. Finally, we propose a slightly more complicated scheme based on entanglement swapping that can lead to even longer distances of communication. The limiting factor in this new scheme is the fiber loss, which imposes very slow communication rates at longer distances.