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Source author record

Aram Galstyan

Aram Galstyan appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

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Machine LearningSocial and Information NetworksComputation and Languagephysics.soc-phphysics.data-anArtificial IntelligenceInformation Theorymath.ITApplicationscond-mat.stat-mechMultiagent SystemsComputer Science and Game Theorycond-mat.dis-nnInformation Retrievalnlin.AOcs.CYPopulations and EvolutionComputer Visioncond-mat.mtrl-sciCryptography and SecurityHuman-Computer InteractionMethodologyphysics.comp-phquant-phQuantitative MethodsRobotics

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Published work

52 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

RoPE Distinguishes Neither Positions Nor Tokens in Long Contexts, Provably

We identify intrinsic limitations of Rotary Positional Embeddings (RoPE) in Transformer-based long-context language models. Our theoretical analysis abstracts away from the specific content of the context and depends only on its length. We prove that as context length increases, RoPE-based attention becomes unpredictable and loses two properties that are central to its effectiveness. First, it loses its locality bias: RoPE is no more likely to favor nearer positions than substantially farther ones. Second, it loses consistency in token relevance: a key vector that receives a higher attention score than an alternative at one position may receive a lower score at another. In both cases, the probability of failure approaches 0.5, no better than random guessing. We further prove that the attention score can remain unchanged when a key token is moved to a different position, or even replaced by a different token, indicating a failure to distinguish positions or tokens. Adjusting the RoPE base trades off distinguishing positions against distinguishing tokens but cannot preserve both at the same time. Increasing the RoPE base hyperparameter, a common practice in today's long-context models, helps distinguish different tokens, but inevitably sacrifices the ability to distinguish positions. Our empirical analysis shows that multi-head, multi-layer architectures are insufficient to overcome these limitations. Our findings suggest that fundamentally new mechanisms for encoding position and token order may be needed in future Transformer long-context language models.

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preprint2026arXiv

SWAN: Semantic Watermarking with Abstract Meaning Representation

We introduce SWAN (Semantic Watermarking with Abstract Meaning Representation), a novel framework that embeds watermark signatures into the semantic structure of a sentence using Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR). In contrast to existing watermarking methods, which typically encode signatures by adjusting token selection preferences during text generation, SWAN embeds the signature directly in the sentence's semantic representation. As the signature is encoded at the semantic structure level, any paraphrase that preserves meaning automatically preserves the signature. SWAN is training-free: watermark injection is achieved by prompting an LLM to generate sentences guided by a selected AMR template while maintaining contextual coherence, and detection uses an off-the-shelf AMR parser followed by a simple one-proportion z-test. Empirical evaluation on the RealNews benchmark shows SWAN matches state-of-the-art detection performance on unaltered watermarked text, while significantly improving robustness against paraphrasing, increasing detection AUC by up to 13.9 percentage points compared to prior methods. These results demonstrate that SWAN's approach of anchoring watermarks in AMR semantic structures provides a simple, effective, and prompt-based method for robust text provenance verification under paraphrasing, opening new avenues for semantic-level watermarking research.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

A Metric Space for Point Process Excitations

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all interactions is often infeasible in empirical settings. Models that specialize on a spatiotemporal application alleviate this obstacle by exploiting spatial locality, allowing the dyadic relationships between events to depend only on separation in time and relative distances in real Euclidean space. Here we generalize this framework to any multivariate Hawkes process, and harness it as a vessel for embedding arbitrary event types in a hidden metric space. Specifically, we propose a Hidden Hawkes Geometry (HHG) model to uncover the hidden geometry between event excitations in a multivariate point process. The low dimensionality of the embedding regularizes the structure of the inferred interactions. We develop a number of estimators and validate the model by conducting several experiments. In particular, we investigate regional infectivity dynamics of COVID-19 in an early South Korean record and recent Los Angeles confirmed cases. By additionally performing synthetic experiments on short records as well as explorations into options markets and the Ebola epidemic, we demonstrate that learning the embedding alongside a point process uncovers salient interactions in a broad range of applications.

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preprint2022arXiv

A Survey on Bias and Fairness in Machine Learning

With the widespread use of AI systems and applications in our everyday lives, it is important to take fairness issues into consideration while designing and engineering these types of systems. Such systems can be used in many sensitive environments to make important and life-changing decisions; thus, it is crucial to ensure that the decisions do not reflect discriminatory behavior toward certain groups or populations. We have recently seen work in machine learning, natural language processing, and deep learning that addresses such challenges in different subdomains. With the commercialization of these systems, researchers are becoming aware of the biases that these applications can contain and have attempted to address them. In this survey we investigated different real-world applications that have shown biases in various ways, and we listed different sources of biases that can affect AI applications. We then created a taxonomy for fairness definitions that machine learning researchers have defined in order to avoid the existing bias in AI systems. In addition to that, we examined different domains and subdomains in AI showing what researchers have observed with regard to unfair outcomes in the state-of-the-art methods and how they have tried to address them. There are still many future directions and solutions that can be taken to mitigate the problem of bias in AI systems. We are hoping that this survey will motivate researchers to tackle these issues in the near future by observing existing work in their respective fields.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Anchor Attention for Hybrid Crowd Forecasts Aggregation

In a crowd forecasting system, aggregation is an algorithm that returns aggregated probabilities for each question based on the probabilities provided per question by each individual in the crowd. Various aggregation methods have been proposed, but simple strategies like linear averaging or selecting the best-performing individual remain competitive. With the recent advance in neural networks, we model forecasts aggregation as a machine translation task, that translates from a sequence of individual forecasts into aggregated forecasts, based on proposed Anchor Attention between questions and forecasters. We evaluate our approach using data collected on our forecasting platform and publicly available Good Judgement Project dataset, and show that our method outperforms current state-of-the-art aggregation approaches by learning a good representation of forecaster and question.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

DEAM: Dialogue Coherence Evaluation using AMR-based Semantic Manipulations

Automatic evaluation metrics are essential for the rapid development of open-domain dialogue systems as they facilitate hyper-parameter tuning and comparison between models. Although recently proposed trainable conversation-level metrics have shown encouraging results, the quality of the metrics is strongly dependent on the quality of training data. Prior works mainly resort to heuristic text-level manipulations (e.g. utterances shuffling) to bootstrap incoherent conversations (negative examples) from coherent dialogues (positive examples). Such approaches are insufficient to appropriately reflect the incoherence that occurs in interactions between advanced dialogue models and humans. To tackle this problem, we propose DEAM, a Dialogue coherence Evaluation metric that relies on Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR) to apply semantic-level Manipulations for incoherent (negative) data generation. AMRs naturally facilitate the injection of various types of incoherence sources, such as coreference inconsistency, irrelevancy, contradictions, and decrease engagement, at the semantic level, thus resulting in more natural incoherent samples. Our experiments show that DEAM achieves higher correlations with human judgments compared to baseline methods on several dialog datasets by significant margins. We also show that DEAM can distinguish between coherent and incoherent dialogues generated by baseline manipulations, whereas those baseline models cannot detect incoherent examples generated by DEAM. Our results demonstrate the potential of AMR-based semantic manipulations for natural negative example generation.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Inferring topological transitions in pattern-forming processes with self-supervised learning

The identification and classification of transitions in topological and microstructural regimes in pattern-forming processes are critical for understanding and fabricating microstructurally precise novel materials in many application domains. Unfortunately, relevant microstructure transitions may depend on process parameters in subtle and complex ways that are not captured by the classic theory of phase transition. While supervised machine learning methods may be useful for identifying transition regimes, they need labels which require prior knowledge of order parameters or relevant structures describing these transitions. Motivated by the universality principle for dynamical systems, we instead use a self-supervised approach to solve the inverse problem of predicting process parameters from observed microstructures using neural networks. This approach does not require predefined, labeled data about the different classes of microstructural patterns or about the target task of predicting microstructure transitions. We show that the difficulty of performing the inverse-problem prediction task is related to the goal of discovering microstructure regimes, because qualitative changes in microstructural patterns correspond to changes in uncertainty predictions for our self-supervised problem. We demonstrate the value of our approach by automatically discovering transitions in microstructural regimes in two distinct pattern-forming processes: the spinodal decomposition of a two-phase mixture and the formation of concentration modulations of binary alloys during physical vapor deposition of thin films. This approach opens a promising path forward for discovering and understanding unseen or hard-to-discern transition regimes, and ultimately for controlling complex pattern-forming processes.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Mitigating Gender Bias in Distilled Language Models via Counterfactual Role Reversal

Language models excel at generating coherent text, and model compression techniques such as knowledge distillation have enabled their use in resource-constrained settings. However, these models can be biased in multiple ways, including the unfounded association of male and female genders with gender-neutral professions. Therefore, knowledge distillation without any fairness constraints may preserve or exaggerate the teacher model's biases onto the distilled model. To this end, we present a novel approach to mitigate gender disparity in text generation by learning a fair model during knowledge distillation. We propose two modifications to the base knowledge distillation based on counterfactual role reversal$\unicode{x2014}$modifying teacher probabilities and augmenting the training set. We evaluate gender polarity across professions in open-ended text generated from the resulting distilled and finetuned GPT$\unicode{x2012}$2 models and demonstrate a substantial reduction in gender disparity with only a minor compromise in utility. Finally, we observe that language models that reduce gender polarity in language generation do not improve embedding fairness or downstream classification fairness.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

On the Intrinsic and Extrinsic Fairness Evaluation Metrics for Contextualized Language Representations

Multiple metrics have been introduced to measure fairness in various natural language processing tasks. These metrics can be roughly categorized into two categories: 1) \emph{extrinsic metrics} for evaluating fairness in downstream applications and 2) \emph{intrinsic metrics} for estimating fairness in upstream contextualized language representation models. In this paper, we conduct an extensive correlation study between intrinsic and extrinsic metrics across bias notions using 19 contextualized language models. We find that intrinsic and extrinsic metrics do not necessarily correlate in their original setting, even when correcting for metric misalignments, noise in evaluation datasets, and confounding factors such as experiment configuration for extrinsic metrics. %al

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preprint2022arXiv

Robust Conversational Agents against Imperceptible Toxicity Triggers

Warning: this paper contains content that maybe offensive or upsetting. Recent research in Natural Language Processing (NLP) has advanced the development of various toxicity detection models with the intention of identifying and mitigating toxic language from existing systems. Despite the abundance of research in this area, less attention has been given to adversarial attacks that force the system to generate toxic language and the defense against them. Existing work to generate such attacks is either based on human-generated attacks which is costly and not scalable or, in case of automatic attacks, the attack vector does not conform to human-like language, which can be detected using a language model loss. In this work, we propose attacks against conversational agents that are imperceptible, i.e., they fit the conversation in terms of coherency, relevancy, and fluency, while they are effective and scalable, i.e., they can automatically trigger the system into generating toxic language. We then propose a defense mechanism against such attacks which not only mitigates the attack but also attempts to maintain the conversational flow. Through automatic and human evaluations, we show that our defense is effective at avoiding toxic language generation even against imperceptible toxicity triggers while the generated language fits the conversation in terms of coherency and relevancy. Lastly, we establish the generalizability of such a defense mechanism on language generation models beyond conversational agents.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

DiSCoL: Toward Engaging Dialogue Systems through Conversational Line Guided Response Generation

Having engaging and informative conversations with users is the utmost goal for open-domain conversational systems. Recent advances in transformer-based language models and their applications to dialogue systems have succeeded to generate fluent and human-like responses. However, they still lack control over the generation process towards producing contentful responses and achieving engaging conversations. To achieve this goal, we present \textbf{DiSCoL} (\textbf{Di}alogue \textbf{S}ystems through \textbf{Co}versational \textbf{L}ine guided response generation). DiSCoL is an open-domain dialogue system that leverages conversational lines (briefly \textbf{convlines}) as controllable and informative content-planning elements to guide the generation model produce engaging and informative responses. Two primary modules in DiSCoL's pipeline are conditional generators trained for 1) predicting relevant and informative convlines for dialogue contexts and 2) generating high-quality responses conditioned on the predicted convlines. Users can also change the returned convlines to \textit{control} the direction of the conversations towards topics that are more interesting for them. Through automatic and human evaluations, we demonstrate the efficiency of the convlines in producing engaging conversations.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Efficient Covariance Estimation from Temporal Data

Estimating the covariance structure of multivariate time series is a fundamental problem with a wide-range of real-world applications -- from financial modeling to fMRI analysis. Despite significant recent advances, current state-of-the-art methods are still severely limited in terms of scalability, and do not work well in high-dimensional undersampled regimes. In this work we propose a novel method called Temporal Correlation Explanation, or T-CorEx, that (a) has linear time and memory complexity with respect to the number of variables, and can scale to very large temporal datasets that are not tractable with existing methods; (b) gives state-of-the-art results in highly undersampled regimes on both synthetic and real-world datasets; and (c) makes minimal assumptions about the character of the dynamics of the system. T-CorEx optimizes an information-theoretic objective function to learn a latent factor graphical model for each time period and applies two regularization techniques to induce temporal consistency of estimates. We perform extensive evaluation of T-Corex using both synthetic and real-world data and demonstrate that it can be used for detecting sudden changes in the underlying covariance matrix, capturing transient correlations and analyzing extremely high-dimensional complex multivariate time series such as high-resolution fMRI data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Graph Traversal with Tensor Functionals: A Meta-Algorithm for Scalable Learning

Graph Representation Learning (GRL) methods have impacted fields from chemistry to social science. However, their algorithmic implementations are specialized to specific use-cases e.g.message passing methods are run differently from node embedding ones. Despite their apparent differences, all these methods utilize the graph structure, and therefore, their learning can be approximated with stochastic graph traversals. We propose Graph Traversal via Tensor Functionals(GTTF), a unifying meta-algorithm framework for easing the implementation of diverse graph algorithms and enabling transparent and efficient scaling to large graphs. GTTF is founded upon a data structure (stored as a sparse tensor) and a stochastic graph traversal algorithm (described using tensor operations). The algorithm is a functional that accept two functions, and can be specialized to obtain a variety of GRL models and objectives, simply by changing those two functions. We show for a wide class of methods, our algorithm learns in an unbiased fashion and, in expectation, approximates the learning as if the specialized implementations were run directly. With these capabilities, we scale otherwise non-scalable methods to set state-of-the-art on large graph datasets while being more efficient than existing GRL libraries - with only a handful of lines of code for each method specialization. GTTF and its various GRL implementations are on: https://github.com/isi-usc-edu/gttf.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Hamiltonian Dynamics with Non-Newtonian Momentum for Rapid Sampling

Sampling from an unnormalized probability distribution is a fundamental problem in machine learning with applications including Bayesian modeling, latent factor inference, and energy-based model training. After decades of research, variations of MCMC remain the default approach to sampling despite slow convergence. Auxiliary neural models can learn to speed up MCMC, but the overhead for training the extra model can be prohibitive. We propose a fundamentally different approach to this problem via a new Hamiltonian dynamics with a non-Newtonian momentum. In contrast to MCMC approaches like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, no stochastic step is required. Instead, the proposed deterministic dynamics in an extended state space exactly sample the target distribution, specified by an energy function, under an assumption of ergodicity. Alternatively, the dynamics can be interpreted as a normalizing flow that samples a specified energy model without training. The proposed Energy Sampling Hamiltonian (ESH) dynamics have a simple form that can be solved with existing ODE solvers, but we derive a specialized solver that exhibits much better performance. ESH dynamics converge faster than their MCMC competitors enabling faster, more stable training of neural network energy models.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Likelihood Ratio Exponential Families

The exponential family is well known in machine learning and statistical physics as the maximum entropy distribution subject to a set of observed constraints, while the geometric mixture path is common in MCMC methods such as annealed importance sampling. Linking these two ideas, recent work has interpreted the geometric mixture path as an exponential family of distributions to analyze the thermodynamic variational objective (TVO). We extend these likelihood ratio exponential families to include solutions to rate-distortion (RD) optimization, the information bottleneck (IB) method, and recent rate-distortion-classification approaches which combine RD and IB. This provides a common mathematical framework for understanding these methods via the conjugate duality of exponential families and hypothesis testing. Further, we collect existing results to provide a variational representation of intermediate RD or TVO distributions as a minimizing an expectation of KL divergences. This solution also corresponds to a size-power tradeoff using the likelihood ratio test and the Neyman Pearson lemma. In thermodynamic integration bounds such as the TVO, we identify the intermediate distribution whose expected sufficient statistics match the log partition function.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

All in the Exponential Family: Bregman Duality in Thermodynamic Variational Inference

The recently proposed Thermodynamic Variational Objective (TVO) leverages thermodynamic integration to provide a family of variational inference objectives, which both tighten and generalize the ubiquitous Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). However, the tightness of TVO bounds was not previously known, an expensive grid search was used to choose a "schedule" of intermediate distributions, and model learning suffered with ostensibly tighter bounds. In this work, we propose an exponential family interpretation of the geometric mixture curve underlying the TVO and various path sampling methods, which allows us to characterize the gap in TVO likelihood bounds as a sum of KL divergences. We propose to choose intermediate distributions using equal spacing in the moment parameters of our exponential family, which matches grid search performance and allows the schedule to adaptively update over the course of training. Finally, we derive a doubly reparameterized gradient estimator which improves model learning and allows the TVO to benefit from more refined bounds. To further contextualize our contributions, we provide a unified framework for understanding thermodynamic integration and the TVO using Taylor series remainders.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Compressing Deep Neural Networks via Layer Fusion

This paper proposes \textit{layer fusion} - a model compression technique that discovers which weights to combine and then fuses weights of similar fully-connected, convolutional and attention layers. Layer fusion can significantly reduce the number of layers of the original network with little additional computation overhead, while maintaining competitive performance. From experiments on CIFAR-10, we find that various deep convolution neural networks can remain within 2\% accuracy points of the original networks up to a compression ratio of 3.33 when iteratively retrained with layer fusion. For experiments on the WikiText-2 language modelling dataset where pretrained transformer models are used, we achieve compression that leads to a network that is 20\% of its original size while being within 5 perplexity points of the original network. We also find that other well-established compression techniques can achieve competitive performance when compared to their original networks given a sufficient number of retraining steps. Generally, we observe a clear inflection point in performance as the amount of compression increases, suggesting a bound on the amount of compression that can be achieved before an exponential degradation in performance.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Leveraging Clickstream Trajectories to Reveal Low-Quality Workers in Crowdsourced Forecasting Platforms

Crowdwork often entails tackling cognitively-demanding and time-consuming tasks. Crowdsourcing can be used for complex annotation tasks, from medical imaging to geospatial data, and such data powers sensitive applications, such as health diagnostics or autonomous driving. However, the existence and prevalence of underperforming crowdworkers is well-recognized, and can pose a threat to the validity of crowdsourcing. In this study, we propose the use of a computational framework to identify clusters of underperforming workers using clickstream trajectories. We focus on crowdsourced geopolitical forecasting. The framework can reveal different types of underperformers, such as workers with forecasts whose accuracy is far from the consensus of the crowd, those who provide low-quality explanations for their forecasts, and those who simply copy-paste their forecasts from other users. Our study suggests that clickstream clustering and analysis are fundamental tools to diagnose the performance of crowdworkers in platforms leveraging the wisdom of crowds.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Predictive Engagement: An Efficient Metric For Automatic Evaluation of Open-Domain Dialogue Systems

User engagement is a critical metric for evaluating the quality of open-domain dialogue systems. Prior work has focused on conversation-level engagement by using heuristically constructed features such as the number of turns and the total time of the conversation. In this paper, we investigate the possibility and efficacy of estimating utterance-level engagement and define a novel metric, {\em predictive engagement}, for automatic evaluation of open-domain dialogue systems. Our experiments demonstrate that (1) human annotators have high agreement on assessing utterance-level engagement scores; (2) conversation-level engagement scores can be predicted from properly aggregated utterance-level engagement scores. Furthermore, we show that the utterance-level engagement scores can be learned from data. These scores can improve automatic evaluation metrics for open-domain dialogue systems, as shown by correlation with human judgements. This suggests that predictive engagement can be used as a real-time feedback for training better dialogue models.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Robust Classification under Class-Dependent Domain Shift

Investigation of machine learning algorithms robust to changes between the training and test distributions is an active area of research. In this paper we explore a special type of dataset shift which we call class-dependent domain shift. It is characterized by the following features: the input data causally depends on the label, the shift in the data is fully explained by a known variable, the variable which controls the shift can depend on the label, there is no shift in the label distribution. We define a simple optimization problem with an information theoretic constraint and attempt to solve it with neural networks. Experiments on a toy dataset demonstrate the proposed method is able to learn robust classifiers which generalize well to unseen domains.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Estimating Mutual Information by Local Gaussian Approximation

Estimating mutual information (MI) from samples is a fundamental problem in statistics, machine learning, and data analysis. Recently it was shown that a popular class of non-parametric MI estimators perform very poorly for strongly dependent variables and have sample complexity that scales exponentially with the true MI. This undesired behavior was attributed to the reliance of those estimators on local uniformity of the underlying (and unknown) probability density function. Here we present a novel semi-parametric estimator of mutual information, where at each sample point, densities are {\em locally} approximated by a Gaussians distribution. We demonstrate that the estimator is asymptotically unbiased. We also show that the proposed estimator has a superior performance compared to several baselines, and is able to accurately measure relationship strengths over many orders of magnitude.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Scalable Link Prediction in Dynamic Networks via Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

We propose a scalable temporal latent space model for link prediction in dynamic social networks, where the goal is to predict links over time based on a sequence of previous graph snapshots. The model assumes that each user lies in an unobserved latent space and interactions are more likely to form between similar users in the latent space representation. In addition, the model allows each user to gradually move its position in the latent space as the network structure evolves over time. We present a global optimization algorithm to effectively infer the temporal latent space, with a quadratic convergence rate. Two alternative optimization algorithms with local and incremental updates are also proposed, allowing the model to scale to larger networks without compromising prediction accuracy. Empirically, we demonstrate that our model, when evaluated on a number of real-world dynamic networks, significantly outperforms existing approaches for temporal link prediction in terms of both scalability and predictive power.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

The Information Sieve

We introduce a new framework for unsupervised learning of representations based on a novel hierarchical decomposition of information. Intuitively, data is passed through a series of progressively fine-grained sieves. Each layer of the sieve recovers a single latent factor that is maximally informative about multivariate dependence in the data. The data is transformed after each pass so that the remaining unexplained information trickles down to the next layer. Ultimately, we are left with a set of latent factors explaining all the dependence in the original data and remainder information consisting of independent noise. We present a practical implementation of this framework for discrete variables and apply it to a variety of fundamental tasks in unsupervised learning including independent component analysis, lossy and lossless compression, and predicting missing values in data.

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preprint2016arXiv

Toward Interpretable Topic Discovery via Anchored Correlation Explanation

Many predictive tasks, such as diagnosing a patient based on their medical chart, are ultimately defined by the decisions of human experts. Unfortunately, encoding experts' knowledge is often time consuming and expensive. We propose a simple way to use fuzzy and informal knowledge from experts to guide discovery of interpretable latent topics in text. The underlying intuition of our approach is that latent factors should be informative about both correlations in the data and a set of relevance variables specified by an expert. Mathematically, this approach is a combination of the information bottleneck and Total Correlation Explanation (CorEx). We give a preliminary evaluation of Anchored CorEx, showing that it produces more coherent and interpretable topics on two distinct corpora.

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preprint2016arXiv

Variational Information Maximization for Feature Selection

Feature selection is one of the most fundamental problems in machine learning. An extensive body of work on information-theoretic feature selection exists which is based on maximizing mutual information between subsets of features and class labels. Practical methods are forced to rely on approximations due to the difficulty of estimating mutual information. We demonstrate that approximations made by existing methods are based on unrealistic assumptions. We formulate a more flexible and general class of assumptions based on variational distributions and use them to tractably generate lower bounds for mutual information. These bounds define a novel information-theoretic framework for feature selection, which we prove to be optimal under tree graphical models with proper choice of variational distributions. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed method strongly outperforms existing information-theoretic feature selection approaches.

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preprint2015arXiv

Efficient Estimation of Mutual Information for Strongly Dependent Variables

We demonstrate that a popular class of nonparametric mutual information (MI) estimators based on k-nearest-neighbor graphs requires number of samples that scales exponentially with the true MI. Consequently, accurate estimation of MI between two strongly dependent variables is possible only for prohibitively large sample size. This important yet overlooked shortcoming of the existing estimators is due to their implicit reliance on local uniformity of the underlying joint distribution. We introduce a new estimator that is robust to local non-uniformity, works well with limited data, and is able to capture relationship strengths over many orders of magnitude. We demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed estimator on both synthetic and real-world data.

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preprint2015arXiv

Extracting Biomolecular Interactions Using Semantic Parsing of Biomedical Text

We advance the state of the art in biomolecular interaction extraction with three contributions: (i) We show that deep, Abstract Meaning Representations (AMR) significantly improve the accuracy of a biomolecular interaction extraction system when compared to a baseline that relies solely on surface- and syntax-based features; (ii) In contrast with previous approaches that infer relations on a sentence-by-sentence basis, we expand our framework to enable consistent predictions over sets of sentences (documents); (iii) We further modify and expand a graph kernel learning framework to enable concurrent exploitation of automatically induced AMR (semantic) and dependency structure (syntactic) representations. Our experiments show that our approach yields interaction extraction systems that are more robust in environments where there is a significant mismatch between training and test conditions.

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preprint2015arXiv

Maximally Informative Hierarchical Representations of High-Dimensional Data

We consider a set of probabilistic functions of some input variables as a representation of the inputs. We present bounds on how informative a representation is about input data. We extend these bounds to hierarchical representations so that we can quantify the contribution of each layer towards capturing the information in the original data. The special form of these bounds leads to a simple, bottom-up optimization procedure to construct hierarchical representations that are also maximally informative about the data. This optimization has linear computational complexity and constant sample complexity in the number of variables. These results establish a new approach to unsupervised learning of deep representations that is both principled and practical. We demonstrate the usefulness of the approach on both synthetic and real-world data.

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preprint2015arXiv

Understanding confounding effects in linguistic coordination: an information-theoretic approach

We suggest an information-theoretic approach for measuring stylistic coordination in dialogues. The proposed measure has a simple predictive interpretation and can account for various confounding factors through proper conditioning. We revisit some of the previous studies that reported strong signatures of stylistic accommodation, and find that a significant part of the observed coordination can be attributed to a simple confounding effect - length coordination. Specifically, longer utterances tend to be followed by longer responses, which gives rise to spurious correlations in the other stylistic features. We propose a test to distinguish correlations in length due to contextual factors (topic of conversation, user verbosity, etc.) and turn-by-turn coordination. We also suggest a test to identify whether stylistic coordination persists even after accounting for length coordination and contextual factors.

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preprint2014arXiv

Active Inference for Binary Symmetric Hidden Markov Models

We consider active maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem for Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where, given an initial MAP estimate of the hidden sequence, we select to label certain states in the sequence to improve the estimation accuracy of the remaining states. We develop an analytical approach to this problem for the case of binary symmetric HMMs, and obtain a closed form solution that relates the expected error reduction to model parameters under the specified active inference scheme. We then use this solution to determine most optimal active inference scheme in terms of error reduction, and examine the relation of those schemes to heuristic principles of uncertainty reduction and solution unicity.

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preprint2014arXiv

Demystifying Information-Theoretic Clustering

We propose a novel method for clustering data which is grounded in information-theoretic principles and requires no parametric assumptions. Previous attempts to use information theory to define clusters in an assumption-free way are based on maximizing mutual information between data and cluster labels. We demonstrate that this intuition suffers from a fundamental conceptual flaw that causes clustering performance to deteriorate as the amount of data increases. Instead, we return to the axiomatic foundations of information theory to define a meaningful clustering measure based on the notion of consistency under coarse-graining for finite data.

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preprint2014arXiv

Discovering Structure in High-Dimensional Data Through Correlation Explanation

We introduce a method to learn a hierarchy of successively more abstract representations of complex data based on optimizing an information-theoretic objective. Intuitively, the optimization searches for a set of latent factors that best explain the correlations in the data as measured by multivariate mutual information. The method is unsupervised, requires no model assumptions, and scales linearly with the number of variables which makes it an attractive approach for very high dimensional systems. We demonstrate that Correlation Explanation (CorEx) automatically discovers meaningful structure for data from diverse sources including personality tests, DNA, and human language.

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preprint2014arXiv

Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups

The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of $d=2$ corresponds to the case where the dynamics are coarsely quantized as Active and Inactive, respectively. A state estimation strategy that exploits the underlying HMM structure is then developed for spurt detection and tracking. This strategy is shown to track even nonpersistent changes that last only for a short duration at the cost of learning the underlying model. Case studies with real terrorism data from open-source databases are provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology.

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preprint2014arXiv

Latent Self-Exciting Point Process Model for Spatial-Temporal Networks

We propose a latent self-exciting point process model that describes geographically distributed interactions between pairs of entities. In contrast to most existing approaches that assume fully observable interactions, here we consider a scenario where certain interaction events lack information about participants. Instead, this information needs to be inferred from the available observations. We develop an efficient approximate algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization to infer unknown participants in an event given the location and the time of the event. We validate the model on synthetic as well as real-world data, and obtain very promising results on the identity-inference task. We also use our model to predict the timing and participants of future events, and demonstrate that it compares favorably with baseline approaches.

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preprint2014arXiv

Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

Background: Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings: We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect|when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy)|and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions: The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

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preprint2014arXiv

Tripartite Graph Clustering for Dynamic Sentiment Analysis on Social Media

The growing popularity of social media (e.g, Twitter) allows users to easily share information with each other and influence others by expressing their own sentiments on various subjects. In this work, we propose an unsupervised \emph{tri-clustering} framework, which analyzes both user-level and tweet-level sentiments through co-clustering of a tripartite graph. A compelling feature of the proposed framework is that the quality of sentiment clustering of tweets, users, and features can be mutually improved by joint clustering. We further investigate the evolution of user-level sentiments and latent feature vectors in an online framework and devise an efficient online algorithm to sequentially update the clustering of tweets, users and features with newly arrived data. The online framework not only provides better quality of both dynamic user-level and tweet-level sentiment analysis, but also improves the computational and storage efficiency. We verified the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approaches on the November 2012 California ballot Twitter data.

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preprint2013arXiv

Coevolutionary networks of reinforcement-learning agents

This paper presents a model of network formation in repeated games where the players adapt their strategies and network ties simultaneously using a simple reinforcement-learning scheme. It is demonstrated that the coevolutionary dynamics of such systems can be described via coupled replicator equations. We provide a comprehensive analysis for three-player two-action games, which is the minimum system size with nontrivial structural dynamics. In particular, we characterize the Nash equilibria (NE) in such games and examine the local stability of the rest points corresponding to those equilibria. We also study general n-player networks via both simulations and analytical methods and find that in the absence of exploration, the stable equilibria consist of star motifs as the main building blocks of the network. Furthermore, in all stable equilibria the agents play pure strategies, even when the game allows mixed NE. Finally, we study the impact of exploration on learning outcomes, and observe that there is a critical exploration rate above which the symmetric and uniformly connected network topology becomes stable.

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preprint2013arXiv

Comparative Analysis of Viterbi Training and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for HMMs

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy. Furthermore, VT converges faster and results in sparser (simpler) models, thus realizing an automatic Occam's razor for HMM learning. For more general scenario VT can be worse compared to ML but still capable of correctly recovering most of the parameters.

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preprint2013arXiv

Information-Theoretic Measures of Influence Based on Content Dynamics

The fundamental building block of social influence is for one person to elicit a response in another. Researchers measuring a "response" in social media typically depend either on detailed models of human behavior or on platform-specific cues such as re-tweets, hash tags, URLs, or mentions. Most content on social networks is difficult to model because the modes and motivation of human expression are diverse and incompletely understood. We introduce content transfer, an information-theoretic measure with a predictive interpretation that directly quantifies the strength of the effect of one user's content on another's in a model-free way. Estimating this measure is made possible by combining recent advances in non-parametric entropy estimation with increasingly sophisticated tools for content representation. We demonstrate on Twitter data collected for thousands of users that content transfer is able to capture non-trivial, predictive relationships even for pairs of users not linked in the follower or mention graph. We suggest that this measure makes large quantities of previously under-utilized social media content accessible to rigorous statistical causal analysis.

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preprint2013arXiv

Modeling Temporal Activity Patterns in Dynamic Social Networks

The focus of this work is on developing probabilistic models for user activity in social networks by incorporating the social network influence as perceived by the user. For this, we propose a coupled Hidden Markov Model, where each user's activity evolves according to a Markov chain with a hidden state that is influenced by the collective activity of the friends of the user. We develop generalized Baum-Welch and Viterbi algorithms for model parameter learning and state estimation for the proposed framework. We then validate the proposed model using a significant corpus of user activity on Twitter. Our numerical studies show that with sufficient observations to ensure accurate model learning, the proposed framework explains the observed data better than either a renewal process-based model or a conventional uncoupled Hidden Markov Model. We also demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach in predicting the time to the next tweet. Finally, clustering in the model parameter space is shown to result in distinct natural clusters of users characterized by the interaction dynamic between a user and his network.

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preprint2013arXiv

Phase Transitions in Community Detection: A Solvable Toy Model

Recently, it was shown that there is a phase transition in the community detection problem. This transition was first computed using the cavity method, and has been proved rigorously in the case of $q=2$ groups. However, analytic calculations using the cavity method are challenging since they require us to understand probability distributions of messages. We study analogous transitions in so-called "zero-temperature inference" model, where this distribution is supported only on the most-likely messages. Furthermore, whenever several messages are equally likely, we break the tie by choosing among them with equal probability. While the resulting analysis does not give the correct values of the thresholds, it does reproduce some of the qualitative features of the system. It predicts a first-order detectability transition whenever $q > 2$, while the finite-temperature cavity method shows that this is the case only when $q > 4$. It also has a regime analogous to the "hard but detectable" phase, where the community structure can be partially recovered, but only when the initial messages are sufficiently accurate. Finally, we study a semisupervised setting where we are given the correct labels for a fraction $ρ$ of the nodes. For $q > 2$, we find a regime where the accuracy jumps discontinuously at a critical value of $ρ$.

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preprint2013arXiv

Statistical Tests for Contagion in Observational Social Network Studies

Current tests for contagion in social network studies are vulnerable to the confounding effects of latent homophily (i.e., ties form preferentially between individuals with similar hidden traits). We demonstrate a general method to lower bound the strength of causal effects in observational social network studies, even in the presence of arbitrary, unobserved individual traits. Our tests require no parametric assumptions and each test is associated with an algebraic proof. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by correctly deducing the causal effects for examples previously shown to expose defects in existing methodology. Finally, we discuss preliminary results on data taken from the Framingham Heart Study.

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preprint2012arXiv

Dynamics of Boltzmann Q-Learning in Two-Player Two-Action Games

We consider the dynamics of Q-learning in two-player two-action games with a Boltzmann exploration mechanism. For any non-zero exploration rate the dynamics is dissipative, which guarantees that agent strategies converge to rest points that are generally different from the game's Nash Equlibria (NE). We provide a comprehensive characterization of the rest point structure for different games, and examine the sensitivity of this structure with respect to the noise due to exploration. Our results indicate that for a class of games with multiple NE the asymptotic behavior of learning dynamics can undergo drastic changes at critical exploration rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate that for certain games with a single NE, it is possible to have additional rest points (not corresponding to any NE) that persist for a finite range of the exploration rates and disappear when the exploration rates of both players tend to zero.

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preprint2011arXiv

A Sequence of Relaxations Constraining Hidden Variable Models

Many widely studied graphical models with latent variables lead to nontrivial constraints on the distribution of the observed variables. Inspired by the Bell inequalities in quantum mechanics, we refer to any linear inequality whose violation rules out some latent variable model as a "hidden variable test" for that model. Our main contribution is to introduce a sequence of relaxations which provides progressively tighter hidden variable tests. We demonstrate applicability to mixtures of sequences of i.i.d. variables, Bell inequalities, and homophily models in social networks. For the last, we demonstrate that our method provides a test that is able to rule out latent homophily as the sole explanation for correlations on a real social network that are known to be due to influence.

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preprint2011arXiv

Co-evolution of Selection and Influence in Social Networks

Many networks are complex dynamical systems, where both attributes of nodes and topology of the network (link structure) can change with time. We propose a model of co-evolving networks where both node at- tributes and network structure evolve under mutual influence. Specifically, we consider a mixed membership stochastic blockmodel, where the probability of observing a link between two nodes depends on their current membership vectors, while those membership vectors themselves evolve in the presence of a link between the nodes. Thus, the network is shaped by the interaction of stochastic processes describing the nodes, while the processes themselves are influenced by the changing network structure. We derive an efficient variational inference procedure for our model, and validate the model on both synthetic and real-world data.

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preprint2011arXiv

Continuous Strategy Replicator Dynamics for Multi--Agent Learning

The problem of multi-agent learning and adaptation has attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. It has been suggested that the dynamics of multi agent learning can be studied using replicator equations from population biology. Most existing studies so far have been limited to discrete strategy spaces with a small number of available actions. In many cases, however, the choices available to agents are better characterized by continuous spectra. This paper suggests a generalization of the replicator framework that allows to study the adaptive dynamics of Q-learning agents with continuous strategy spaces. Instead of probability vectors, agents strategies are now characterized by probability measures over continuous variables. As a result, the ordinary differential equations for the discrete case are replaced by a system of coupled integral--differential replicator equations that describe the mutual evolution of individual agent strategies. We derive a set of functional equations describing the steady state of the replicator dynamics, examine their solutions for several two-player games, and confirm our analytical results using simulations.

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preprint2011arXiv

Information Transfer in Social Media

Recent research has explored the increasingly important role of social media by examining the dynamics of individual and group behavior, characterizing patterns of information diffusion, and identifying influential individuals. In this paper we suggest a measure of causal relationships between nodes based on the information-theoretic notion of transfer entropy, or information transfer. This theoretically grounded measure is based on dynamic information, captures fine-grain notions of influence, and admits a natural, predictive interpretation. Causal networks inferred by transfer entropy can differ significantly from static friendship networks because most friendship links are not useful for predicting future dynamics. We demonstrate through analysis of synthetic and real-world data that transfer entropy reveals meaningful hidden network structures. In addition to altering our notion of who is influential, transfer entropy allows us to differentiate between weak influence over large groups and strong influence over small groups.

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preprint2011arXiv

Le Chatelier principle in replicator dynamics

The Le Chatelier principle states that physical equilibria are not only stable, but they also resist external perturbations via short-time negative-feedback mechanisms: a perturbation induces processes tending to diminish its results. The principle has deep roots, e.g., in thermodynamics it is closely related to the second law and the positivity of the entropy production. Here we study the applicability of the Le Chatelier principle to evolutionary game theory, i.e., to perturbations of a Nash equilibrium within the replicator dynamics. We show that the principle can be reformulated as a majorization relation. This defines a stability notion that generalizes the concept of evolutionary stability. We determine criteria for a Nash equilibrium to satisfy the Le Chatelier principle and relate them to mutualistic interactions (game-theoretical anticoordination) showing in which sense mutualistic replicators can be more stable than (say) competing ones. There are globally stable Nash equilibria, where the Le Chatelier principle is violated even locally: in contrast to the thermodynamic equilibrium a Nash equilibrium can amplify small perturbations, though both this type of equilibria satisfy the detailed balance condition.

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preprint2011arXiv

Replicator Dynamics of Co-Evolving Networks

We propose a simple model of network co-evolution in a game-dynamical system of interacting agents that play repeated games with their neighbors, and adapt their behaviors and network links based on the outcome of those games. The adaptation is achieved through a simple reinforcement learning scheme. We show that the collective evolution of such a system can be described by appropriately defined replicator dynamics equations. In particular, we suggest an appropriate factorization of the agents' strategies that results in a coupled system of equations characterizing the evolution of both strategies and network structure, and illustrate the framework on two simple examples.

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preprint2011arXiv

Statistical Mechanics of Semi-Supervised Clustering in Sparse Graphs

We theoretically study semi-supervised clustering in sparse graphs in the presence of pairwise constraints on the cluster assignments of nodes. We focus on bi-cluster graphs, and study the impact of semi-supervision for varying constraint density and overlap between the clusters. Recent results for unsupervised clustering in sparse graphs indicate that there is a critical ratio of within-cluster and between-cluster connectivities below which clusters cannot be recovered with better than random accuracy. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of pairwise constraints on the clustering accuracy. Our results suggests that the addition of constraints does not provide automatic improvement over the unsupervised case. When the density of the constraints is sufficiently small, their only impact is to shift the detection threshold while preserving the criticality. Conversely, if the density of (hard) constraints is above the percolation threshold, the criticality is suppressed and the detection threshold disappears.

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preprint2010arXiv

Community Detection with and without Prior Information

We study the problem of graph partitioning, or clustering, in sparse networks with prior information about the clusters. Specifically, we assume that for a fraction $ρ$ of the nodes their true cluster assignments are known in advance. This can be understood as a semi--supervised version of clustering, in contrast to unsupervised clustering where the only available information is the graph structure. In the unsupervised case, it is known that there is a threshold of the inter--cluster connectivity beyond which clusters cannot be detected. Here we study the impact of the prior information on the detection threshold, and show that even minute [but generic] values of $ρ>0$ shift the threshold downwards to its lowest possible value. For weighted graphs we show that a small semi--supervising can be used for a non-trivial definition of communities.

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preprint2006arXiv

Modeling and Mathematical Analysis of Swarms of Microscopic Robots

The biologically-inspired swarm paradigm is being used to design self-organizing systems of locally interacting artificial agents. A major difficulty in designing swarms with desired characteristics is understanding the causal relation between individual agent and collective behaviors. Mathematical analysis of swarm dynamics can address this difficulty to gain insight into system design. This paper proposes a framework for mathematical modeling of swarms of microscopic robots that may one day be useful in medical applications. While such devices do not yet exist, the modeling approach can be helpful in identifying various design trade-offs for the robots and be a useful guide for their eventual fabrication. Specifically, we examine microscopic robots that reside in a fluid, for example, a bloodstream, and are able to detect and respond to different chemicals. We present the general mathematical model of a scenario in which robots locate a chemical source. We solve the scenario in one-dimension and show how results can be used to evaluate certain design decisions.

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