Researcher profile

Ameet Talwalkar

Ameet Talwalkar contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

17 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Toto 2.0: Time Series Forecasting Enters the Scaling Era

We show that time series foundation models scale: a single training recipe produces reliable forecast-quality improvements from 4M to 2.5B parameters. We release Toto 2.0, a family of five open-weights forecasting models trained under this recipe. The Toto 2.0 family sets a new state of the art on three forecasting benchmarks: BOOM, our observability benchmark; GIFT-Eval, the standard general-purpose benchmark; and the recent contamination-resistant TIME benchmark. This report describes our experimental results and details the design decisions behind Toto 2.0: its architecture and training recipe, training data, and the u-muP hyperparameter transfer pipeline. All five base checkpoints are released under Apache 2.0.

preprint2023arXiv

NAS-Bench-360: Benchmarking Neural Architecture Search on Diverse Tasks

Most existing neural architecture search (NAS) benchmarks and algorithms prioritize well-studied tasks, e.g. image classification on CIFAR or ImageNet. This makes the performance of NAS approaches in more diverse areas poorly understood. In this paper, we present NAS-Bench-360, a benchmark suite to evaluate methods on domains beyond those traditionally studied in architecture search, and use it to address the following question: do state-of-the-art NAS methods perform well on diverse tasks? To construct the benchmark, we curate ten tasks spanning a diverse array of application domains, dataset sizes, problem dimensionalities, and learning objectives. Each task is carefully chosen to interoperate with modern CNN-based search methods while possibly being far-afield from its original development domain. To speed up and reduce the cost of NAS research, for two of the tasks we release the precomputed performance of 15,625 architectures comprising a standard CNN search space. Experimentally, we show the need for more robust NAS evaluation of the kind NAS-Bench-360 enables by showing that several modern NAS procedures perform inconsistently across the ten tasks, with many catastrophically poor results. We also demonstrate how NAS-Bench-360 and its associated precomputed results will enable future scientific discoveries by testing whether several recent hypotheses promoted in the NAS literature hold on diverse tasks. NAS-Bench-360 is hosted at https://nb360.ml.cmu.edu.

preprint2022arXiv

Finding and Fixing Spurious Patterns with Explanations

Image classifiers often use spurious patterns, such as "relying on the presence of a person to detect a tennis racket, which do not generalize. In this work, we present an end-to-end pipeline for identifying and mitigating spurious patterns for such models, under the assumption that we have access to pixel-wise object-annotations. We start by identifying patterns such as "the model's prediction for tennis racket changes 63% of the time if we hide the people." Then, if a pattern is spurious, we mitigate it via a novel form of data augmentation. We demonstrate that our method identifies a diverse set of spurious patterns and that it mitigates them by producing a model that is both more accurate on a distribution where the spurious pattern is not helpful and more robust to distribution shift.

preprint2022arXiv

Perspectives on Incorporating Expert Feedback into Model Updates

Machine learning (ML) practitioners are increasingly tasked with developing models that are aligned with non-technical experts' values and goals. However, there has been insufficient consideration on how practitioners should translate domain expertise into ML updates. In this paper, we consider how to capture interactions between practitioners and experts systematically. We devise a taxonomy to match expert feedback types with practitioner updates. A practitioner may receive feedback from an expert at the observation- or domain-level, and convert this feedback into updates to the dataset, loss function, or parameter space. We review existing work from ML and human-computer interaction to describe this feedback-update taxonomy, and highlight the insufficient consideration given to incorporating feedback from non-technical experts. We end with a set of open questions that naturally arise from our proposed taxonomy and subsequent survey.

preprint2022arXiv

Sanity Simulations for Saliency Methods

Saliency methods are a popular class of feature attribution explanation methods that aim to capture a model's predictive reasoning by identifying "important" pixels in an input image. However, the development and adoption of these methods are hindered by the lack of access to ground-truth model reasoning, which prevents accurate evaluation. In this work, we design a synthetic benchmarking framework, SMERF, that allows us to perform ground-truth-based evaluation while controlling the complexity of the model's reasoning. Experimentally, SMERF reveals significant limitations in existing saliency methods and, as a result, represents a useful tool for the development of new saliency methods.

preprint2022arXiv

Should We Be Pre-training? An Argument for End-task Aware Training as an Alternative

In most settings of practical concern, machine learning practitioners know in advance what end-task they wish to boost with auxiliary tasks. However, widely used methods for leveraging auxiliary data like pre-training and its continued-pretraining variant are end-task agnostic: they rarely, if ever, exploit knowledge of the target task. We study replacing end-task agnostic continued training of pre-trained language models with end-task aware training of said models. We argue that for sufficiently important end-tasks, the benefits of leveraging auxiliary data in a task-aware fashion can justify forgoing the traditional approach of obtaining generic, end-task agnostic representations as with (continued) pre-training. On three different low-resource NLP tasks from two domains, we demonstrate that multi-tasking the end-task and auxiliary objectives results in significantly better downstream task performance than the widely-used task-agnostic continued pre-training paradigm of Gururangan et al. (2020). We next introduce an online meta-learning algorithm that learns a set of multi-task weights to better balance among our multiple auxiliary objectives, achieving further improvements on end-task performance and data efficiency.

preprint2022arXiv

SONAR: Joint Architecture and System Optimization Search

There is a growing need to deploy machine learning for different tasks on a wide array of new hardware platforms. Such deployment scenarios require tackling multiple challenges, including identifying a model architecture that can achieve a suitable predictive accuracy (architecture search), and finding an efficient implementation of the model to satisfy underlying hardware-specific systems constraints such as latency (system optimization search). Existing works treat architecture search and system optimization search as separate problems and solve them sequentially. In this paper, we instead propose to solve these problems jointly, and introduce a simple but effective baseline method called SONAR that interleaves these two search problems. SONAR aims to efficiently optimize for predictive accuracy and inference latency by applying early stopping to both search processes. Our experiments on multiple different hardware back-ends show that SONAR identifies nearly optimal architectures 30 times faster than a brute force approach.

preprint2022arXiv

Use-Case-Grounded Simulations for Explanation Evaluation

A growing body of research runs human subject evaluations to study whether providing users with explanations of machine learning models can help them with practical real-world use cases. However, running user studies is challenging and costly, and consequently each study typically only evaluates a limited number of different settings, e.g., studies often only evaluate a few arbitrarily selected explanation methods. To address these challenges and aid user study design, we introduce Use-Case-Grounded Simulated Evaluations (SimEvals). SimEvals involve training algorithmic agents that take as input the information content (such as model explanations) that would be presented to each participant in a human subject study, to predict answers to the use case of interest. The algorithmic agent's test set accuracy provides a measure of the predictiveness of the information content for the downstream use case. We run a comprehensive evaluation on three real-world use cases (forward simulation, model debugging, and counterfactual reasoning) to demonstrate that Simevals can effectively identify which explanation methods will help humans for each use case. These results provide evidence that SimEvals can be used to efficiently screen an important set of user study design decisions, e.g. selecting which explanations should be presented to the user, before running a potentially costly user study.

preprint2021arXiv

On Data Efficiency of Meta-learning

Meta-learning has enabled learning statistical models that can be quickly adapted to new prediction tasks. Motivated by use-cases in personalized federated learning, we study the often overlooked aspect of the modern meta-learning algorithms -- their data efficiency. To shed more light on which methods are more efficient, we use techniques from algorithmic stability to derive bounds on the transfer risk that have important practical implications, indicating how much supervision is needed and how it must be allocated for each method to attain the desired level of generalization. Further, we introduce a new simple framework for evaluating meta-learning methods under a limit on the available supervision, conduct an empirical study of MAML, Reptile, and Protonets, and demonstrate the differences in the behavior of these methods on few-shot and federated learning benchmarks. Finally, we propose active meta-learning, which incorporates active data selection into learning-to-learn, leading to better performance of all methods in the limited supervision regime.

preprint2020arXiv

A System for Massively Parallel Hyperparameter Tuning

Modern learning models are characterized by large hyperparameter spaces and long training times. These properties, coupled with the rise of parallel computing and the growing demand to productionize machine learning workloads, motivate the need to develop mature hyperparameter optimization functionality in distributed computing settings. We address this challenge by first introducing a simple and robust hyperparameter optimization algorithm called ASHA, which exploits parallelism and aggressive early-stopping to tackle large-scale hyperparameter optimization problems. Our extensive empirical results show that ASHA outperforms existing state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods; scales linearly with the number of workers in distributed settings; and is suitable for massive parallelism, as demonstrated on a task with 500 workers. We then describe several design decisions we encountered, along with our associated solutions, when integrating ASHA in Determined AI's end-to-end production-quality machine learning system that offers hyperparameter tuning as a service.

preprint2020arXiv

Differentially Private Meta-Learning

Parameter-transfer is a well-known and versatile approach for meta-learning, with applications including few-shot learning, federated learning, and reinforcement learning. However, parameter-transfer algorithms often require sharing models that have been trained on the samples from specific tasks, thus leaving the task-owners susceptible to breaches of privacy. We conduct the first formal study of privacy in this setting and formalize the notion of task-global differential privacy as a practical relaxation of more commonly studied threat models. We then propose a new differentially private algorithm for gradient-based parameter transfer that not only satisfies this privacy requirement but also retains provable transfer learning guarantees in convex settings. Empirically, we apply our analysis to the problems of federated learning with personalization and few-shot classification, showing that allowing the relaxation to task-global privacy from the more commonly studied notion of local privacy leads to dramatically increased performance in recurrent neural language modeling and image classification.

preprint2020arXiv

Explaining Groups of Points in Low-Dimensional Representations

A common workflow in data exploration is to learn a low-dimensional representation of the data, identify groups of points in that representation, and examine the differences between the groups to determine what they represent. We treat this workflow as an interpretable machine learning problem by leveraging the model that learned the low-dimensional representation to help identify the key differences between the groups. To solve this problem, we introduce a new type of explanation, a Global Counterfactual Explanation (GCE), and our algorithm, Transitive Global Translations (TGT), for computing GCEs. TGT identifies the differences between each pair of groups using compressed sensing but constrains those pairwise differences to be consistent among all of the groups. Empirically, we demonstrate that TGT is able to identify explanations that accurately explain the model while being relatively sparse, and that these explanations match real patterns in the data.

preprint2020arXiv

FACT: A Diagnostic for Group Fairness Trade-offs

Group fairness, a class of fairness notions that measure how different groups of individuals are treated differently according to their protected attributes, has been shown to conflict with one another, often with a necessary cost in loss of model's predictive performance. We propose a general diagnostic that enables systematic characterization of these trade-offs in group fairness. We observe that the majority of group fairness notions can be expressed via the fairness-confusion tensor, which is the confusion matrix split according to the protected attribute values. We frame several optimization problems that directly optimize both accuracy and fairness objectives over the elements of this tensor, which yield a general perspective for understanding multiple trade-offs including group fairness incompatibilities. It also suggests an alternate post-processing method for designing fair classifiers. On synthetic and real datasets, we demonstrate the use cases of our diagnostic, particularly on understanding the trade-off landscape between accuracy and fairness.

preprint2020arXiv

FedDANE: A Federated Newton-Type Method

Federated learning aims to jointly learn statistical models over massively distributed remote devices. In this work, we propose FedDANE, an optimization method that we adapt from DANE, a method for classical distributed optimization, to handle the practical constraints of federated learning. We provide convergence guarantees for this method when learning over both convex and non-convex functions. Despite encouraging theoretical results, we find that the method has underwhelming performance empirically. In particular, through empirical simulations on both synthetic and real-world datasets, FedDANE consistently underperforms baselines of FedAvg and FedProx in realistic federated settings. We identify low device participation and statistical device heterogeneity as two underlying causes of this underwhelming performance, and conclude by suggesting several directions of future work.

preprint2020arXiv

Federated Optimization in Heterogeneous Networks

Federated Learning is a distributed learning paradigm with two key challenges that differentiate it from traditional distributed optimization: (1) significant variability in terms of the systems characteristics on each device in the network (systems heterogeneity), and (2) non-identically distributed data across the network (statistical heterogeneity). In this work, we introduce a framework, FedProx, to tackle heterogeneity in federated networks. FedProx can be viewed as a generalization and re-parametrization of FedAvg, the current state-of-the-art method for federated learning. While this re-parameterization makes only minor modifications to the method itself, these modifications have important ramifications both in theory and in practice. Theoretically, we provide convergence guarantees for our framework when learning over data from non-identical distributions (statistical heterogeneity), and while adhering to device-level systems constraints by allowing each participating device to perform a variable amount of work (systems heterogeneity). Practically, we demonstrate that FedProx allows for more robust convergence than FedAvg across a suite of realistic federated datasets. In particular, in highly heterogeneous settings, FedProx demonstrates significantly more stable and accurate convergence behavior relative to FedAvg---improving absolute test accuracy by 22% on average.

preprint2020arXiv

Learning Fair Representations for Kernel Models

Fair representations are a powerful tool for establishing criteria like statistical parity, proxy non-discrimination, and equality of opportunity in learned models. Existing techniques for learning these representations are typically model-agnostic, as they preprocess the original data such that the output satisfies some fairness criterion, and can be used with arbitrary learning methods. In contrast, we demonstrate the promise of learning a model-aware fair representation, focusing on kernel-based models. We leverage the classical Sufficient Dimension Reduction (SDR) framework to construct representations as subspaces of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), whose member functions are guaranteed to satisfy fairness. Our method supports several fairness criteria, continuous and discrete data, and multiple protected attributes. We further show how to calibrate the accuracy tradeoff by characterizing it in terms of the principal angles between subspaces of the RKHS. Finally, we apply our approach to obtain the first Fair Gaussian Process (FGP) prior for fair Bayesian learning, and show that it is competitive with, and in some cases outperforms, state-of-the-art methods on real data.

preprint2019arXiv

Federated Learning: Challenges, Methods, and Future Directions

Federated learning involves training statistical models over remote devices or siloed data centers, such as mobile phones or hospitals, while keeping data localized. Training in heterogeneous and potentially massive networks introduces novel challenges that require a fundamental departure from standard approaches for large-scale machine learning, distributed optimization, and privacy-preserving data analysis. In this article, we discuss the unique characteristics and challenges of federated learning, provide a broad overview of current approaches, and outline several directions of future work that are relevant to a wide range of research communities.