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Ali Shojaie

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Published work

19 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

High-Dimensional Statistics: Reflections on Progress and Open Problems

Over the past two decades, the field of high-dimensional statistics has experienced substantial progress, driven largely by technological advances that have dramatically reduced the cost and effort for data collection and storage across a broad range of domains, including biology, medicine, astronomy, and the social and environmental sciences. Modern datasets are increasingly complex, often exhibiting rich dependency, heterogeneity, and other features that challenge traditional statistical methods. In response, high-dimensional statistics has evolved to address more sophisticated estimation and inference problems. This evolution has, in turn, fostered deep connections with and contributions to a wide range of research areas, including optimization, concentration of measure, random matrix theory, information theory, and theoretical computer science. Given the rapid pace of recent developments in high-dimensional statistics, our goal is to synthesize representative advances, highlight common themes and open problems, and point to important works that offer entry points into the field.

preprint2022arXiv

Consistent Second-Order Conic Integer Programming for Learning Bayesian Networks

Bayesian Networks (BNs) represent conditional probability relations among a set of random variables (nodes) in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), and have found diverse applications in knowledge discovery. We study the problem of learning the sparse DAG structure of a BN from continuous observational data. The central problem can be modeled as a mixed-integer program with an objective function composed of a convex quadratic loss function and a regularization penalty subject to linear constraints. The optimal solution to this mathematical program is known to have desirable statistical properties under certain conditions. However, the state-of-the-art optimization solvers are not able to obtain provably optimal solutions to the existing mathematical formulations for medium-size problems within reasonable computational times. To address this difficulty, we tackle the problem from both computational and statistical perspectives. On the one hand, we propose a concrete early stopping criterion to terminate the branch-and-bound process in order to obtain a near-optimal solution to the mixed-integer program, and establish the consistency of this approximate solution. On the other hand, we improve the existing formulations by replacing the linear "big-$M$" constraints that represent the relationship between the continuous and binary indicator variables with second-order conic constraints. Our numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

preprint2021arXiv

Nonparametric causal structure learning in high dimensions

The PC and FCI algorithms are popular constraint-based methods for learning the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in the absence and presence of latent and selection variables, respectively. These algorithms (and their order-independent variants, PC-stable and FCI-stable) have been shown to be consistent for learning sparse high-dimensional DAGs based on partial correlations. However, inferring conditional independences from partial correlations is valid if the data are jointly Gaussian or generated from a linear structural equation model -- an assumption that may be violated in many applications. To broaden the scope of high-dimensional causal structure learning, we propose nonparametric variants of the PC-stable and FCI-stable algorithms that employ the conditional distance covariance (CdCov) to test for conditional independence relationships. As the key theoretical contribution, we prove that the high-dimensional consistency of the PC-stable and FCI-stable algorithms carry over to general distributions over DAGs when we implement CdCov-based nonparametric tests for conditional independence. Numerical studies demonstrate that our proposed algorithms perform nearly as good as the PC-stable and FCI-stable for Gaussian distributions, and offer advantages in non-Gaussian graphical models.

preprint2020arXiv

Differential Network Analysis: A Statistical Perspective

Networks effectively capture interactions among components of complex systems, and have thus become a mainstay in many scientific disciplines. Growing evidence, especially from biology, suggest that networks undergo changes over time, and in response to external stimuli. In biology and medicine, these changes have been found to be predictive of complex diseases. They have also been used to gain insight into mechanisms of disease initiation and progression. Primarily motivated by biological applications, this article provides a review of recent statistical machine learning methods for inferring networks and identifying changes in their structures.

preprint2020arXiv

Directed Graphical Models and Causal Discovery for Zero-Inflated Data

Modern RNA sequencing technologies provide gene expression measurements from single cells that promise refined insights on regulatory relationships among genes. Directed graphical models are well-suited to explore such (cause-effect) relationships. However, statistical analyses of single cell data are complicated by the fact that the data often show zero-inflated expression patterns. To address this challenge, we propose directed graphical models that are based on Hurdle conditional distributions parametrized in terms of polynomials in parent variables and their 0/1 indicators of being zero or nonzero. While directed graphs for Gaussian models are only identifiable up to an equivalence class in general, we show that, under a natural and weak assumption, the exact directed acyclic graph of our zero-inflated models can be identified. We propose methods for graph recovery, apply our model to real single-cell RNA-seq data on T helper cells, and show simulated experiments that validate the identifiability and graph estimation methods in practice.

preprint2020arXiv

In Defense of the Indefensible: A Very Naive Approach to High-Dimensional Inference

A great deal of interest has recently focused on conducting inference on the parameters in a high-dimensional linear model. In this paper, we consider a simple and very naïve two-step procedure for this task, in which we (i) fit a lasso model in order to obtain a subset of the variables, and (ii) fit a least squares model on the lasso-selected set. Conventional statistical wisdom tells us that we cannot make use of the standard statistical inference tools for the resulting least squares model (such as confidence intervals and $p$-values), since we peeked at the data twice: once in running the lasso, and again in fitting the least squares model. However, in this paper, we show that under a certain set of assumptions, with high probability, the set of variables selected by the lasso is identical to the one selected by the noiseless lasso and is hence deterministic. Consequently, the naïve two-step approach can yield asymptotically valid inference. We utilize this finding to develop the \emph{naïve confidence interval}, which can be used to draw inference on the regression coefficients of the model selected by the lasso, as well as the \emph{naïve score test}, which can be used to test the hypotheses regarding the full-model regression coefficients.

preprint2020arXiv

Statistical Inference for Networks of High-Dimensional Point Processes

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the network estimates is critical in scientific applications, existing methodological and theoretical work has primarily addressed estimation. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a new statistical inference procedure for high-dimensional Hawkes processes. The key ingredient for this inference procedure is a new concentration inequality on the first- and second-order statistics for integrated stochastic processes, which summarize the entire history of the process. Combining recent results on martingale central limit theory with the new concentration inequality, we then characterize the convergence rate of the test statistics. We illustrate finite sample validity of our inferential tools via extensive simulations and demonstrate their utility by applying them to a neuron spike train data set.

preprint2016arXiv

A Generalized Benjamini-Hochberg Procedure for Multivariate Hypothesis Testing

The introduction of the false discovery rate (FDR) by Benjamini and Hochberg has spurred a great interest in developing methodologies to control the FDR in various settings. The majority of existing approaches, however, address the FDR control for the case where an appropriate univariate test statistic is available. Modern hypothesis testing and data integration applications, on the other hand, routinely involve multivariate test statistics. The goal, in such settings, is to combine the evidence for each hypothesis and achieve greater power, while controlling the number of false discoveries. This paper considers data-adaptive methods for constructing nested rejection regions based on multivariate test statistics (z-values). It is proved that the FDR can be controlled for appropriately constructed rejection regions, even when the regions depend on data and are hence random. This flexibility is then exploited to develop optimal multiple comparison procedures in higher dimensions, where the distribution of non-null z-values is unknown. Results are illustrated using simulated and real data.

preprint2016arXiv

Estimation of High-Dimensional Graphical Models Using Regularized Score Matching

Graphical models are widely used to model stochastic dependences among large collections of variables. We introduce a new method of estimating undirected conditional independence graphs based on the score matching loss, introduced by Hyvarinen (2005), and subsequently extended in Hyvarinen (2007). The regularized score matching method we propose applies to settings with continuous observations and allows for computationally efficient treatment of possibly non-Gaussian exponential family models. In the well-explored Gaussian setting, regularized score matching avoids issues of asymmetry that arise when applying the technique of neighborhood selection, and compared to existing methods that directly yield symmetric estimates, the score matching approach has the advantage that the considered loss is quadratic and gives piecewise linear solution paths under $\ell_1$ regularization. Under suitable irrepresentability conditions, we show that $\ell_1$-regularized score matching is consistent for graph estimation in sparse high-dimensional settings. Through numerical experiments and an application to RNAseq data, we confirm that regularized score matching achieves state-of-the-art performance in the Gaussian case and provides a valuable tool for computationally efficient estimation in non-Gaussian graphical models.

preprint2016arXiv

Joint Estimation of Precision Matrices in Heterogeneous Populations

We introduce a general framework for estimation of inverse covariance, or precision, matrices from heterogeneous populations. The proposed framework uses a Laplacian shrinkage penalty to encourage similarity among estimates from disparate, but related, subpopulations, while allowing for differences among matrices. We propose an efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for parameter estimation, as well as its extension for faster computation in high dimensions by thresholding the empirical covariance matrix to identify the joint block diagonal structure in the estimated precision matrices. We establish both variable selection and norm consistency of the proposed estimator for distributions with exponential or polynomial tails. Further, to extend the applicability of the method to the settings with unknown populations structure, we propose a Laplacian penalty based on hierarchical clustering, and discuss conditions under which this data-driven choice results in consistent estimation of precision matrices in heterogenous populations. Extensive numerical studies and applications to gene expression data from subtypes of cancer with distinct clinical outcomes indicate the potential advantages of the proposed method over existing approaches.

preprint2016arXiv

Network Reconstruction From High Dimensional Ordinary Differential Equations

We consider the task of learning a dynamical system from high-dimensional time-course data. For instance, we might wish to estimate a gene regulatory network from gene expression data measured at discrete time points. We model the dynamical system non-parametrically as a system of additive ordinary differential equations. Most existing methods for parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations estimate the derivatives from noisy observations. This is known to be challenging and inefficient. We propose a novel approach that does not involve derivative estimation. We show that the proposed method can consistently recover the true network structure even in high dimensions, and we demonstrate empirical improvement over competing approaches.

preprint2016arXiv

Network-Based Pathway Enrichment Analysis with Incomplete Network Information

Pathway enrichment analysis has become a key tool for biomedical researchers to gain insight into the underlying biology of differentially expressed genes, proteins and metabolites. It reduces complexity and provides a system-level view of changes in cellular activity in response to treatments and/or in disease states. Methods that use existing pathway network information have been shown to outperform simpler methods that only take into account pathway membership. However, despite significant progress in understanding the association amongst members of biological pathways, and expansion of data bases containing information about interactions of biomolecules, the existing network information may be incomplete or inaccurate, and is not cell-type or disease condition-specific. We propose a constrained network estimation framework that combines network estimation based on cell- and condition-specific high-dimensional Omics data with interaction information from existing data bases. The resulting pathway topology information is subsequently used to provide a framework for simultaneous testing of differences in expression levels of pathway members, as well as their interactions. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed network estimator and the test for pathway enrichment, and investigate its small sample performance in simulated and real data settings.

preprint2014arXiv

Inference in High Dimensions with the Penalized Score Test

In recent years, there has been considerable theoretical development regarding variable selection consistency of penalized regression techniques, such as the lasso. However, there has been relatively little work on quantifying the uncertainty in these selection procedures. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in high dimensions using a score test based on penalized regression. In this test, we perform penalized regression of an outcome on all but a single feature, and test for correlation of the residuals with the held-out feature. This procedure is applied to each feature in turn. Interestingly, when an $\ell_1$ penalty is used, the sparsity pattern of the lasso corresponds exactly to a decision based on the proposed test. Further, when an $\ell_2$ penalty is used, the test corresponds precisely to a score test in a mixed effects model, in which the effects of all but one feature are assumed to be random. We formulate the hypothesis being tested as a compromise between the null hypotheses tested in simple linear regression on each feature and in multiple linear regression on all features, and develop reference distributions for some well-known penalties. We also examine the behavior of the test on real and simulated data.

preprint2014arXiv

Selection and Estimation for Mixed Graphical Models

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters in a pairwise graphical model in which the distribution of each node, conditioned on the others, may have a different parametric form. In particular, we assume that each node's conditional distribution is in the exponential family. We identify restrictions on the parameter space required for the existence of a well-defined joint density, and establish the consistency of the neighbourhood selection approach for graph reconstruction in high dimensions when the true underlying graph is sparse. Motivated by our theoretical results, we investigate the selection of edges between nodes whose conditional distributions take different parametric forms, and show that efficiency can be gained if edge estimates obtained from the regressions of particular nodes are used to reconstruct the graph. These results are illustrated with examples of Gaussian, Bernoulli, Poisson and exponential distributions. Our theoretical findings are corroborated by evidence from simulation studies.

preprint2013arXiv

Graph estimation with joint additive models

In recent years, there has been considerable interest in estimating conditional independence graphs in the high-dimensional setting. Most prior work has assumed that the variables are multivariate Gaussian, or that the conditional means of the variables are linear. Unfortunately, if these assumptions are violated, then the resulting conditional independence estimates can be inaccurate. We present a semi-parametric method, SpaCE JAM, which allows the conditional means of the features to take on an arbitrary additive form. We present an efficient algorithm for its computation, and prove that our estimator is consistent. We also extend our method to estimation of directed graphs with known causal ordering. Using simulated data, we show that SpaCE JAM enjoys superior performance to existing methods when there are non-linear relationships among the features, and is comparable to methods that assume multivariate normality when the conditional means are linear. We illustrate our method on a cell-signaling data set.

preprint2013arXiv

Inferring Regulatory Networks by Combining Perturbation Screens and Steady State Gene Expression Profiles

Reconstructing transcriptional regulatory networks is an important task in functional genomics. Data obtained from experiments that perturb genes by knockouts or RNA interference contain useful information for addressing this reconstruction problem. However, such data can be limited in size and/or are expensive to acquire. On the other hand, observational data of the organism in steady state (e.g. wild-type) are more readily available, but their informational content is inadequate for the task at hand. We develop a computational approach to appropriately utilize both data sources for estimating a regulatory network. The proposed approach is based on a three-step algorithm to estimate the underlying directed but cyclic network, that uses as input both perturbation screens and steady state gene expression data. In the first step, the algorithm determines causal orderings of the genes that are consistent with the perturbation data, by combining an exhaustive search method with a fast heuristic that in turn couples a Monte Carlo technique with a fast search algorithm. In the second step, for each obtained causal ordering, a regulatory network is estimated using a penalized likelihood based method, while in the third step a consensus network is constructed from the highest scored ones. Extensive computational experiments show that the algorithm performs well in reconstructing the underlying network and clearly outperforms competing approaches that rely only on a single data source. Further, it is established that the algorithm produces a consistent estimate of the regulatory network.

preprint2013arXiv

Network Granger Causality with Inherent Grouping Structure

The problem of estimating high-dimensional network models arises naturally in the analysis of many physical, biological and socio-economic systems. Examples include stock price fluctuations in financial markets and gene regulatory networks representing effects of regulators (transcription factors) on regulated genes in genetics. We aim to learn the structure of the network over time employing the framework of Granger causal models under the assumptions of sparsity of its edges and inherent grouping structure among its nodes. We introduce a thresholded variant of the Group Lasso estimator for discovering Granger causal interactions among the nodes of the network. Asymptotic results on the consistency of the new estimation procedure are developed. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed through an extensive set of simulation studies and comparisons with existing techniques.

preprint2013arXiv

The Cluster Graphical Lasso for improved estimation of Gaussian graphical models

We consider the task of estimating a Gaussian graphical model in the high-dimensional setting. The graphical lasso, which involves maximizing the Gaussian log likelihood subject to an l1 penalty, is a well-studied approach for this task. We begin by introducing a surprising connection between the graphical lasso and hierarchical clustering: the graphical lasso in effect performs a two-step procedure, in which (1) single linkage hierarchical clustering is performed on the variables in order to identify connected components, and then (2) an l1-penalized log likelihood is maximized on the subset of variables within each connected component. In other words, the graphical lasso determines the connected components of the estimated network via single linkage clustering. Unfortunately, single linkage clustering is known to perform poorly in certain settings. Therefore, we propose the cluster graphical lasso, which involves clustering the features using an alternative to single linkage clustering, and then performing the graphical lasso on the subset of variables within each cluster. We establish model selection consistency for this technique, and demonstrate its improved performance relative to the graphical lasso in a simulation study, as well as in applications to an equities data set, a university webpage data set, and a gene expression data set.

preprint2010arXiv

Discovering Graphical Granger Causality Using the Truncating Lasso Penalty

Components of biological systems interact with each other in order to carry out vital cell functions. Such information can be used to improve estimation and inference, and to obtain better insights into the underlying cellular mechanisms. Discovering regulatory interactions among genes is therefore an important problem in systems biology. Whole-genome expression data over time provides an opportunity to determine how the expression levels of genes are affected by changes in transcription levels of other genes, and can therefore be used to discover regulatory interactions among genes. In this paper, we propose a novel penalization method, called truncating lasso, for estimation of causal relationships from time-course gene expression data. The proposed penalty can correctly determine the order of the underlying time series, and improves the performance of the lasso-type estimators. Moreover, the resulting estimate provides information on the time lag between activation of transcription factors and their effects on regulated genes. We provide an efficient algorithm for estimation of model parameters, and show that the proposed method can consistently discover causal relationships in the large $p$, small $n$ setting. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated favorably in simulated, as well as real, data examples. The proposed truncating lasso method is implemented in the R-package grangerTlasso and is available at http://www.stat.lsa.umich.edu/~shojaie.