Paper detail

The role of freshwater forcing on surface predictability in the Gulf of Mexico

The predictability of fields at the ocean surface in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is investigated through five ensembles of regional ocean simulations between 2014 and 2016. The ensembles explore two horizontal resolutions and different representations of the riverine inflow, and focus on the Loop Current system (LCS) and the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River System (MARS) interactions. The predictability of the surface fields is high in the northern GoM if the atmospheric forcing and the flow at Yucatan Channel are known, and the ensembles simulate similar LCS behavior up to 5 months. In terms of LCS-MARS interactions, the ensembles confirm that they are strongly modulated by the LC mesoscale variability. The relationship is two-ways, with the LCS being influenced by - and not only influencing - the freshwater plume. Whenever the freshwater flux is strong, the northward extension of the LCS is constrained. The ensemble simulations also indicate that this influence is stronger if the riverine inflow is simulated in an active fashion with a meridional velocity component proportional to the flux. Sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) predictability have opposite seasonality in their signal, with the SST (SSS) field being more predictable in summer (winter). Partially resolving submesoscale instabilities and improving the accuracy of the riverine fluxes' representation causes the spread to increase, especially in SST. Finally, the predictability of surface relative vorticity decreases in amplitude when increasing resolution due to feedbacks between the mesoscale and submesoscale circulations, but retains most of its intraseasonal and interannual signal.