Statistical Mechanics and the Climatology of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Distribution

We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev. Lett.} {\bf 115}, 148501, 2015), in which the thermodynamic growth rates are determined using observed climatology. In particular, the Fokker-Planck equation is coupled to the observationally consistent thermodynamic model of Eisenman \& Wettlaufer (\emph{Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA} {\bf 106}, pp. 28-32, 2009). We find that due to the combined effects of thermodynamics and mechanics, $g(h)$ spreads during winter and contracts during summer. This behavior is in agreement with recent satellite observations from CryoSat-2 (Kwok \& Cunningham, \emph{Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A} {\bf 373}, 20140157, 2015). Because $g(h)$ is a probability density function, we quantify all of the key moments (e.g., mean thickness, fraction of thin/thick ice, mean albedo, relaxation time scales) as greenhouse-gas radiative forcing, $ΔF_0$, increases. The mean ice thickness decays exponentially with $ΔF_0$, but {\em much slower} than do solely thermodynamic models. This exhibits the crucial role that ice mechanics plays in maintaining the ice cover, by redistributing thin ice to thick ice--far more rapidly than can thermal growth alone.

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