Statistical inference for heavy tailed series with extremal independence

preprint2018arXivOpen access

Abstract

We consider stationary time series {Xj,j∈Z}whosefinitedimensionaldistributionsareregularlyvaryingwithextremalindependence.Weassumethatforeach\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each h \geq 1,conditionallyon, conditionally on X_0toexceedathresholdtendingtoinfinity,theconditionaldistributionof to exceed a threshold tending to infinity, the conditional distribution of X_h$ suitably normalized converges weakly to a non degenerate distribution. We consider in this paper the estimation of the normalization and of the limiting distribution.

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