Sharp thresholds for the random-cluster and Ising models

A sharp-threshold theorem is proved for box-crossing probabilities on the square lattice. The models in question are the random-cluster model near the self-dual point $p_{\mathrm {sd}}(q)=\sqrt{q}/(1+\sqrt{q})$, the Ising model with external field, and the colored random-cluster model. The principal technique is an extension of the influence theorem for monotonic probability measures applied to increasing events with no assumption of symmetry.

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