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Sentiment Aggregate Functions for Political Opinion Polling using Microblog Streams

The automatic content analysis of mass media in the social sciences has become necessary and possible with the raise of social media and computational power. One particularly promising avenue of research concerns the use of sentiment analysis in microblog streams. However, one of the main challenges consists in aggregating sentiment polarity in a timely fashion that can be fed to the prediction method. We investigated a large set of sentiment aggregate functions and performed a regression analysis using political opinion polls as gold standard. Our dataset contains nearly 233 000 tweets, classified according to their polarity (positive, negative or neutral), regarding the five main Portuguese political leaders during the Portuguese bailout (2011-2014). Results show that different sentiment aggregate functions exhibit different feature importance over time while the error keeps almost unchanged.