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Selective Confidence Intervals for Martingale Regression Model

In this paper we consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for coefficients of martingale regression models (in particular, time series models) after variable selection. Although constructing confidence intervals are common practice in statistical analysis, it is challenging in our framework due to the data-dependence of the selected model and the correlation among the variables being selected and not selected. We first introduce estimators for the selected coefficients and show that it is consistent under martingale regression model, in which the observations can be dependent and the errors can be heteroskedastic. Then we use the estimators together with a resampling approach to construct confidence intervals. Our simulation results show that our approach outperforms other existing approaches in various data structures.