Rearrangements of distributions on integers that minimize variance

preprint2026arXivOpen access

Abstract

Which permutations of a probability distribution on integers minimize variance? Let XX be a random variable on a set of integers {x1,…,xN}\{x_1, \dots, x_N\} such that P(Xi=xi)=pi\mathbb{P}(X_i = x_i) = p_i, i∈{1,…,N}i \in \{1,\dots,N\}. Let (p(1),…,p(N))(p^{(1)}, \dots, p^{(N)}) be the sequence (p1,…,pN)(p_1, \dots, p_N) ordered non-increasingly. Let X+X^+ be the random variable defined by P(X+=0)=p(1)\mathbb{P}(X^+=0)=p^{(1)}, P(X+=1)=p(2)\mathbb{P}(X^+=1) = p^{(2)}, P(X+=−1)=p(3),…,P(X+=(−1)N⌊N2⌋)=p(N)\mathbb{P}(X^+=-1)=p^{(3)}, \dots, \mathbb{P}(X^+=(-1)^N \lfloor \frac {N} 2 \rfloor)=p^{(N)}. In this short note we generalize and prove the inequality Var X+≤Var X\mathrm{Var}\, X^+ \le \mathrm{Var}\, X.

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