Abstract
The predictability of errors in deterministic temperature forecasts is investigated. More precisely, the aim is to issue warnings whenever the differences between forecast and verification exceed a given threshold. The warnings are generated by analyzing the output of an ensemble forecast system in terms of a decision making approach. The quality of the resulting predictions is evaluated by computing receiver operating characteristics, the Brier score, and the Ignorance score. Special emphasis is also given to the question whether rare events are better predictable.
Connections
Explore this paper’s authors, topics and related work.
Building this map preview
BZPEER is loading the nearby papers, people, topics and institutions for this page.
Reviews 0
Write a review
No reviews yet.
Discussion 0
Add a comment
No comments yet.