Potential multiple steady-states in the long-term carbon cycle

In our modeling of the long-term carbon cycle we find potential multiple steady-states in Phanerozoic climates. We include the effects of biotic enhancement of weathering on land, organic carbon burial, oxidation of reduced organic carbon in terrestrial sediments and the variation of biotic productivity with temperature, finding a second stable steady-state appearing between 20 and 50 oC. The very warm early Triassic climate as well as an oceanic anoxic event in the late Cretaceous may be the potential candidates for an upper temperature steady-state. Given our results, the anthropogenic driven rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide could potentially push the climate into tipping points to a modestly higher temperature steady-state, instead of relaxing back to pre-anthropogenic conditions.

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