Nonparametric estimation of variable productivity Hawkes processes

An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood estimators of these productivities. This estimator is compared with an empirical estimator and ways are explored of stabilizing both estimators by lower truncating, smoothing, and rescaling the estimates. Properties of the estimators are explored in simulations, and the methods are applied to seismological and epidemic datasets to show and quantify substantial variation in productivity.

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