Multi seasonal discrete time risk model revisited

preprint2022arXivOpen access

Abstract

In this work we set up the distribution function of M:=sup⁡n⩾1∑i=1n(Zi−1)\mathcal{M}:=\sup_{n\geqslant1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}{(Z_i-1)}, where the random walk ∑i=1nZi,n∈N,\sum_{i=1}^{n}Z_i, n\in\mathbb{N}, is generated by NN periodically occurring distributions and the integer-valued and non-negative random variables Z1, Z2, …Z_1,\,Z_2,\,\ldots are independent. The considered random walk generates so-called multi seasonal discrete time risk model, and a known distribution of random variable M\mathcal{M} enables to calculate ultimate time ruin or survival probability. Verifying obtained theoretical statements we demonstrate several computational examples for survival probability P(M<u)\mathbb{P}(\mathcal{M}< u) when N=2, 3N=2,\,3 or 1010.

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