Information and statistics: a new paradigm in theoretical nuclear physics

Theoretical predictions of physical observables often involve extrapolations to regions that are poorly constrained by laboratory experiments and astrophysical observations. Without properly quantified theoretical errors, such model predictions are of very limited utility. In this contribution we use maximum-likelihood estimation to compute theoretical errors and assess correlations between physical observables. We illustrate the power and elegance of these methods using examples of both pedagogical and realistic interest. In particular, we implement a gaussian approximation to the likelihood function to develop a new relativistic effective interaction constrained by ground-state properties of finite nuclei, their monopole response, and masses of neutron stars.

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