Fluctuation bounds for chaos plus noise in dynamical systems

preprint2012arXivOpen access

Abstract

We are interested in time series of the form yn=xn+ξny_{n} = x_{n} + ξ_{n} where xn{x_{n}} is generated by a chaotic dynamical system and where ξnξ_{n} models observational noise. Using concentration inequalities, we derive fluctuation bounds for the auto-covariance function, the empirical measure, the kernel density estimator and the correlation dimension evaluated along y0,...,yny_{0}, ..., y_{n}, for all nn. The chaotic systems we consider include for instance the Hénon attractor for Benedicks-Carleson parameters.

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