Paper detail

Extracting conditionally heteroscedastic components using ICA

In the independent component model, the multivariate data is assumed to be a mixture of mutually independent latent components, and in independent component analysis (ICA) the aim is to estimate these latent components. In this paper we study an ICA method which combines the use of linear and quadratic autocorrelations in order to enable efficient estimation of various kinds of stationary time series. Statistical properties of the estimator are studied by finding its limiting distribution under general conditions, and the asymptotic variances are derived in the case of ARMA-GARCH model. We use the asymptotic results and a finite sample simulation study to compare different choices of a weight coefficient. As it is often of interest to identify all those components which exhibit stochastic volatility features we also suggest a test statistic for this problem. We also show that a slightly modified version of principal volatility components (PVC) can be seen as an ICA method. Finally, we apply the estimators in analyzing a data set which consists of time series of exchange rates of seven currencies to US dollar. Supplementary material including proofs of the theorems is available online.