Abstract
We show that the probability that a finitely supported random walk on a non-elementary subgroup of the the mapping class group gives a non-pseudo-Anosov element decays exponentially in the length of the random walk. More generally, we show that if R is a set of mapping class group elements with an upper bound on their translation lengths on the complex of curves, then the probability that a random walk lies in R decays exponentially in the length of the random walk.
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