Exchangeable sequences driven by an absolutely continuous random measure

preprint2013arXivOpen access

Abstract

Let SS be a Polish space and (Xn:n≥1)(X_n:n\geq1) an exchangeable sequence of SS-valued random variables. Let αn(⋅)=P(Xn+1∈⋅∣X1,.˙.,Xn)α_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in \cdot\mid X_1,\...,X_n) be the predictive measure and αα a random probability measure on SS such that αn⟶weakαα_n\stackrel{\mathrm{weak}}{\longrightarrow}α a.s. Two (related) problems are addressed. One is to give conditions for α≪λα\llλ a.s., where λλ is a (nonrandom) σσ-finite Borel measure on SS. Such conditions should concern the finite dimensional distributions L(X1,.˙.,Xn)\mathcal {L}(X_1,\...,X_n), n≥1n\geq1, only. The other problem is to investigate whether $\Vert\alp ha_n-α\Vert\stackrel{\mathrm{a.s.}}{\longrightarrow}0$, where ∥⋅∥\Vert\cdot\Vert is total variation norm. Various results are obtained. Some of them do not require exchangeability, but hold under the weaker assumption that (Xn)(X_n) is conditionally identically distributed, in the sense of [Ann. Probab. 32 (2004) 2029-2052].

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