Paper detail

Evaluation of CMIP models with IOMB: Rates of contemporary ocean carbon uptake linked with vertical temperature gradients and transport to the ocean interior

The International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource used here to evaluate surface and upper ocean variables from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) Our analysis reveals general improvement in the multi-model mean of CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 for most of the variables we examined including surface nutrients, temperature, and salinity. We find that both CMIP5 and CMIP6 ocean models underestimate anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake after the 1970s. For the period of 1994 to 2007, the multi-model mean from CMIP6 yields a mean cumulative carbon uptake of 27.2 +-2.2 Pg C, which is about 15% lower than the 32.0+-5.7 Pg C estimate derived from two sets of observations. Negative biases in the change in anthropogenic carbon inventory exist in the northern North Atlantic and at mid-latitudes in the southern hemisphere (30-60°S). For the few models that provided simulations of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), we demonstrate that regions with negative anthropogenic DIC biases coincide with regions that have a negative bias in CFC concentrations. This relationship suggests that underestimates of anthropogenic carbon storage in some models originates, in part, from weak transport between the surface and interior ocean. To examine the robustness of this attribution across the full suite of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, we examined the vertical temperature gradient between 200 and 1000m as a metric for stratification and exchange between the surface and deeper waters. On a global scale across different models and different MIPs we find a linear relationship between the bias of vertical temperature gradients and the bias in anthropogenic carbon uptake, consistent with the hypothesis that model biases in the ocean carbon sink are related to biases in surface-to-interior transport.