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Paper detail

EMBERS at 4 years: Experiences operating an Open Source Indicators Forecasting System

EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events, currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, and lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament including our perspectives on the limits of forecasting and ethical considerations.

preprint2016arXivOpen access
Sathappan MuthiahPatrick ButlerRupinder Paul KhandpurParang SarafNathan SelfAlla RozovskayaLiang ZhaoJose CadenaChang-Tien LuAnil VullikantiAchla MaratheKristen SummersGraham KatzAndy DoyleJaime ArredondoDipak K. GuptaDavid MaresNaren Ramakrishnan
Social and Information Networkscs.CY
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Sathappan MuthiahPatrick ButlerRupinder Paul KhandpurParang SarafNathan SelfAlla RozovskayaLiang ZhaoJose CadenaChang-Tien LuAnil VullikantiAchla MaratheKristen SummersGraham KatzAndy DoyleJaime ArredondoDipak K. GuptaDavid MaresNaren Ramakrishnan

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