Paper detail

Diagnostic tools of approximate Bayesian computation using the coverage property

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for sampling from an approximate posterior distribution in the presence of a computationally intractable likelihood function. A common implementation is based on simulating model, parameter and dataset triples, (m,θ,y), from the prior, and then accepting as samples from the approximate posterior, those pairs (m,θ) for which y, or a summary of y, is "close" to the observed data. Closeness is typically determined though a distance measure and a kernel scale parameter, ε. Appropriate choice of εis important to producing a good quality approximation. This paper proposes diagnostic tools for the choice of εbased on assessing the coverage property, which asserts that credible intervals have the correct coverage levels. We provide theoretical results on coverage for both model and parameter inference, and adapt these into diagnostics for the ABC context. We re-analyse a study on human demographic history to determine whether the adopted posterior approximation was appropriate. R code implementing the proposed methodology is freely available in the package "abc."