Detection of the number of principal components by extended AIC-type method

preprint2020arXivOpen access

Abstract

Estimating the number of principal components is one of the fundamental problems in many scientific fields such as signal processing (or the spiked covariance model). In this paper, we first demonstrate that, for fixed pp, any penalty term of the form k′(p−k′/2+1/2)Cnk'(p-k'/2+1/2)C_n may lead to an asymptotically consistent estimator under the condition that Cn→∞C_n\to\infty and Cn/n→0C_n/n\to0. We also extend our results to the case n,p→∞n,p\to\infty, with p/n→c>0p/n\to c>0. In this case, for k=o(n13)k=o(n^{\frac{1}{3}}), we first investigate the limiting laws for the leading eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix SnS_n under the condition that λk>1+cλ_k>1+\sqrt{c}. At low SNR, since the AIC tends to underestimate the number of signals kk, the AIC should be re-defined in this case. As a natural extension of the AIC for fixed pp, we propose the extended AIC (EAIC), i.e., the AIC-type method with tuning parameter γ=φ(c)=1/2+1/c−log⁡(1+c)/cγ=φ(c)=1/2+\sqrt{1/c}-\log(1+\sqrt{c})/c, and demonstrate that the EAIC-type method, i.e., the AIC-type method with tuning parameter γ>φ(c)γ>φ(c), can select the number of signals kk consistently. In the following two cases, (1) pp fixed, n→∞n\to\infty, (2) n,p→∞n,p\to\infty with p/n→0p/n\to 0, if the AIC is defined as the degeneration of the EAIC in the case n,p→∞n,p\to\infty with p/n→c>0p/n\to c>0, i.e., γ=lim⁡c→0+0φ(c)=1γ=\lim_{c\rightarrow 0+0}φ(c)=1, then we have essentially demonstrated that, to achieve the consistency of the AIC-type method in the above two cases, γ>1γ>1 is required. Moreover, we show that the EAIC-type method is essentially tuning-free and outperforms the well-known KN estimator proposed in Kritchman and Nadler (2008) and the BCF estimator proposed in Bai, Choi and Fujikoshi (2018). Numerical studies indicate that the proposed method works well.

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