Paper detail

Climate Forcing by the Volcanic Eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Revised edition

We determine the volcano climate sensitivity and response time for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. This is achieved using observational measurements of the temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere and the aerosol optical density (AOD) in combination with a radiative forcing proxy for AOD. Using standard linear response theory we find sensitivity = 0.18 +- 0.04 K/(W/m2), which implies a negative feedback of -1.0 +- 0.4. The intrinsic response time is 5.8+-1.0 months. Both results are contrary to the conventional paradigm that includes long response times and positive feedback. In addition, we analyze the outgoing longwave radiation during the Pinatubo eruption and find that its time dependence follows the forcing much more closely than the temperature, and even has an amplitude equal to that of the AOD proxy. This finding is independent of the response time and feedback results.