Change Point Testing for the Drift Parameters of a Periodic Mean Reversion Process

preprint2013arXivOpen access

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the problem of detecting a change in the drift parameters of a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process which is defined as the solution of dXt=(L(t)−αXt)dt+σdBtdX_t=(L(t)-αX_t) dt + σdB_t, and which is observed in continuous time. We derive an explicit representation of the generalized likelihood ratio test statistic assuming that the mean reversion function L(t)L(t) is a finite linear combination of known basis functions. In the case of a periodic mean reversion function, we determine the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis.

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