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Anticipating Activity in Social Media Spikes

We propose a novel mathematical model for the activity of microbloggers during an external, event-driven spike. The model leads to a testable prediction of who would become most active if a spike were to take place. This type of information is of great interest to commercial organisations, governments and charities, as it identifies key players who can be targeted with information in real time when the network is most receptive. The model takes account of the fact that dynamic interactions evolve over an underlying, static network that records who listens to whom. The model is based on the assumption that, in the case where the entire community has become aware of an external news event, a key driver of activity is the motivation to participate by responding to incoming messages. We test the model on a large scale Twitter conversation concerning the appointment of a UK Premier League football club manager. We also present further results for a Bundesliga football match, a marketing event and a television programme. In each case we find that exploiting the underlying connectivity structure improves the prediction of who will be active during a spike. We also show how the half-life of a spike in activity can be quantified in terms of the network size and the typical response rate.