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A Bayesian Statistical Approach for Inference on Static Origin-Destination Matrices

We address the problem of static OD matrix estimation from a formal statistical viewpoint. We adopt a novel Bayesian framework to develop a class of models that explicitly cast trip configurations in the study region as random variables. As a consequence, classical solutions from growth factor, gravity, and maximum entropy models are identified to specific estimators under the proposed models. We show that each of these solutions usually account for only a small fraction of the posterior probability mass in the ensemble and we then contend that the uncertainty in the inference should be propagated to later analyses or next-stage models. We also propose alternative, more robust estimators and devise Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes to obtain them and perform other types of inference. We present several examples showcasing the proposed models and approach, and highlight how other sources of data can be incorporated in the model and inference in a principled, non-heuristic way.