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preprint2020arXiv

CNN2Gate: Toward Designing a General Framework for Implementation of Convolutional Neural Networks on FPGA

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have a major impact on our society because of the numerous services they provide. On the other hand, they require considerable computing power. To satisfy these requirements, it is possible to use graphic processing units (GPUs). However, high power consumption and limited external IOs constrain their usability and suitability in industrial and mission-critical scenarios. Recently, the number of researches that utilize FPGAs to implement CNNs are increasing rapidly. This is due to the lower power consumption and easy reconfigurability offered by these platforms. Because of the research efforts put into topics such as architecture, synthesis and optimization, some new challenges are arising to integrate such hardware solutions to high-level machine learning software libraries. This paper introduces an integrated framework (CNN2Gate) that supports compilation of a CNN model for an FPGA target. CNN2Gate exploits the OpenCL synthesis workflow for FPGAs offered by commercial vendors. CNN2Gate is capable of parsing CNN models from several popular high-level machine learning libraries such as Keras, Pytorch, Caffe2 etc. CNN2Gate extracts computation fl

preprint2022arXiv

What to Learn, and How: Toward Effective Learning from Rationales

Learning from rationales seeks to augment model prediction accuracy using human-annotated rationales (i.e. subsets of input tokens) that justify their chosen labels, often in the form of intermediate or multitask supervision. While intuitive, this idea has proven elusive in practice. We make two observations about human rationales via empirical analyses: 1) maximizing rationale supervision accuracy is not necessarily the optimal objective for improving model accuracy; 2) human rationales vary in whether they provide sufficient information for the model to exploit for prediction. Building on these insights, we propose several novel loss functions and learning strategies, and evaluate their effectiveness on three datasets with human rationales. Our results demonstrate consistent improvements over baselines in both label and rationale accuracy, including a 3% accuracy improvement on MultiRC. Our work highlights the importance of understanding properties of human explanations and exploiting them accordingly in model training.

preprint2014arXiv

Provable Tensor Factorization with Missing Data

We study the problem of low-rank tensor factorization in the presence of missing data. We ask the following question: how many sampled entries do we need, to efficiently and exactly reconstruct a tensor with a low-rank orthogonal decomposition? We propose a novel alternating minimization based method which iteratively refines estimates of the singular vectors. We show that under certain standard assumptions, our method can recover a three-mode $n\times n\times n$ dimensional rank-$r$ tensor exactly from $O(n^{3/2} r^5 \log^4 n)$ randomly sampled entries. In the process of proving this result, we solve two challenging sub-problems for tensors with missing data. First, in the process of analyzing the initialization step, we prove a generalization of a celebrated result by Szemerédie et al. on the spectrum of random graphs. Next, we prove global convergence of alternating minimization with a good initialization. Simulations suggest that the dependence of the sample size on dimensionality $n$ is indeed tight.

preprint2022arXiv

Saliency Attack: Towards Imperceptible Black-box Adversarial Attack

Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples, even in the black-box setting where the attacker is only accessible to the model output. Recent studies have devised effective black-box attacks with high query efficiency. However, such performance is often accompanied by compromises in attack imperceptibility, hindering the practical use of these approaches. In this paper, we propose to restrict the perturbations to a small salient region to generate adversarial examples that can hardly be perceived. This approach is readily compatible with many existing black-box attacks and can significantly improve their imperceptibility with little degradation in attack success rate. Further, we propose the Saliency Attack, a new black-box attack aiming to refine the perturbations in the salient region to achieve even better imperceptibility. Extensive experiments show that compared to the state-of-the-art black-box attacks, our approach achieves much better imperceptibility scores, including most apparent distortion (MAD), $L_0$ and $L_2$ distances, and also obtains significantly higher success rates judged by a human-like threshold on MAD. Importantly, the perturbations generated by our approach are interpretable to some extent. Finally, it is also demonstrated to be robust to different detection-based defenses.

preprint2022arXiv

Survey on Fair Reinforcement Learning: Theory and Practice

Fairness-aware learning aims at satisfying various fairness constraints in addition to the usual performance criteria via data-driven machine learning techniques. Most of the research in fairness-aware learning employs the setting of fair-supervised learning. However, many dynamic real-world applications can be better modeled using sequential decision-making problems and fair reinforcement learning provides a more suitable alternative for addressing these problems. In this article, we provide an extensive overview of fairness approaches that have been implemented via a reinforcement learning (RL) framework. We discuss various practical applications in which RL methods have been applied to achieve a fair solution with high accuracy. We further include various facets of the theory of fair reinforcement learning, organizing them into single-agent RL, multi-agent RL, long-term fairness via RL, and offline learning. Moreover, we highlight a few major issues to explore in order to advance the field of fair-RL, namely - i) correcting societal biases, ii) feasibility of group fairness or individual fairness, and iii) explainability in RL. Our work is beneficial for both researchers and practitioners as we discuss articles providing mathematical guarantees as well as articles with empirical studies on real-world problems.

preprint2015arXiv

Designing Optimal Mortality Risk Prediction Scores that Preserve Clinical Knowledge

Many in-hospital mortality risk prediction scores dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. However, hard thresholding in these additive stepwise scores of the form "add x points if variable v is above/below threshold t" may lead to critical failures. In this paper, we seek to develop risk prediction scores that preserve clinical knowledge embedded in features and structure of the existing additive stepwise scores while addressing limitations caused by variable dichotomization. To this end, we propose a novel score structure that relies on a transformation of predictive variables by means of nonlinear logistic functions facilitating smooth differentiation between critical and normal values of the variables. We develop an optimization framework for inferring parameters of the logistic functions for a given patient population via cyclic block coordinate descent. The parameters may readily be updated as the patient population and standards of care evolve. We tested the proposed methodology on two populations: (1) brain trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit of the Dell Children's Medical Center of Central Texas between 2007 and 2012,

preprint2013arXiv

Multiple decision trees

This paper describes experiments, on two domains, to investigate the effect of averaging over predictions of multiple decision trees, instead of using a single tree. Other authors have pointed out theoretical and commonsense reasons for preferring the multiple tree approach. Ideally, we would like to consider predictions from all trees, weighted by their probability. However, there is a vast number of different trees, and it is difficult to estimate the probability of each tree. We sidestep the estimation problem by using a modified version of the ID3 algorithm to build good trees, and average over only these trees. Our results are encouraging. For each domain, we managed to produce a small number of good trees. We find that it is best to average across sets of trees with different structure; this usually gives better performance than any of the constituent trees, including the ID3 tree.

preprint2012arXiv

The Landmark Selection Method for Multiple Output Prediction

Conditional modeling x \to y is a central problem in machine learning. A substantial research effort is devoted to such modeling when x is high dimensional. We consider, instead, the case of a high dimensional y, where x is either low dimensional or high dimensional. Our approach is based on selecting a small subset y_L of the dimensions of y, and proceed by modeling (i) x \to y_L and (ii) y_L \to y. Composing these two models, we obtain a conditional model x \to y that possesses convenient statistical properties. Multi-label classification and multivariate regression experiments on several datasets show that this model outperforms the one vs. all approach as well as several sophisticated multiple output prediction methods.

preprint2014arXiv

Recovery guarantees for exemplar-based clustering

For a certain class of distributions, we prove that the linear programming relaxation of $k$-medoids clustering---a variant of $k$-means clustering where means are replaced by exemplars from within the dataset---distinguishes points drawn from nonoverlapping balls with high probability once the number of points drawn and the separation distance between any two balls are sufficiently large. Our results hold in the nontrivial regime where the separation distance is small enough that points drawn from different balls may be closer to each other than points drawn from the same ball; in this case, clustering by thresholding pairwise distances between points can fail. We also exhibit numerical evidence of high-probability recovery in a substantially more permissive regime.

preprint2020arXiv

Feedback graph regret bounds for Thompson Sampling and UCB

We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with the graph-based feedback structure introduced by Mannor and Shamir. We analyze the performance of the two most prominent stochastic bandit algorithms, Thompson Sampling and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB), in the graph-based feedback setting. We show that these algorithms achieve regret guarantees that combine the graph structure and the gaps between the means of the arm distributions. Surprisingly this holds despite the fact that these algorithms do not explicitly use the graph structure to select arms; they observe the additional feedback but do not explore based on it. Towards this result we introduce a "layering technique" highlighting the commonalities in the two algorithms.

preprint2026arXiv

AdvKT: An Adversarial Multi-Step Training Framework for Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge Tracing (KT) monitors students' knowledge states and simulates their responses to question sequences. Existing KT models typically follow a single-step training paradigm, which leads to discrepancies with the multi-step inference process required in real-world simulations, resulting in significant error accumulation. This accumulation of error, coupled with the issue of data sparsity, can substantially degrade the performance of recommendation models in the intelligent tutoring systems. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Adversarial Multi-Step Training Framework for Knowledge Tracing (AdvKT), which, for the first time, focuses on the multi-step KT task. More specifically, AdvKT leverages adversarial learning paradigm involving a generator and a discriminator. The generator mimics high-reward responses, effectively reducing error accumulation across multiple steps, while the discriminator provides feedback to generate synthetic data. Additionally, we design specialized data augmentation techniques to enrich the training data with realistic variations, ensuring that the model generalizes well even in scenarios with sparse data. Experiments conducted on four

preprint2014arXiv

Bayesian Multitask Learning with Latent Hierarchies

We learn multiple hypotheses for related tasks under a latent hierarchical relationship between tasks. We exploit the intuition that for domain adaptation, we wish to share classifier structure, but for multitask learning, we wish to share covariance structure. Our hierarchical model is seen to subsume several previously proposed multitask learning models and performs well on three distinct real-world data sets.

preprint2022arXiv

Regularizing a Model-based Policy Stationary Distribution to Stabilize Offline Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) extends the paradigm of classical RL algorithms to purely learning from static datasets, without interacting with the underlying environment during the learning process. A key challenge of offline RL is the instability of policy training, caused by the mismatch between the distribution of the offline data and the undiscounted stationary state-action distribution of the learned policy. To avoid the detrimental impact of distribution mismatch, we regularize the undiscounted stationary distribution of the current policy towards the offline data during the policy optimization process. Further, we train a dynamics model to both implement this regularization and better estimate the stationary distribution of the current policy, reducing the error induced by distribution mismatch. On a wide range of continuous-control offline RL datasets, our method indicates competitive performance, which validates our algorithm. The code is publicly available.

preprint2026arXiv

Semiparametric Efficient Test for Interpretable Distributional Treatment Effects

Distributional treatment effects can be invisible to means: a treatment may preserve average outcomes while changing tails, modes, dispersion, or rare-event probabilities. Kernel tests can detect discrepancies between interventional outcome laws, but global tests do not reveal where the laws differ. We propose DR-ME, to our knowledge the first semiparametrically efficient finite-location test for interpretable distributional treatment effects. DR-ME evaluates an interventional kernel witness at learned outcome locations, returning causal-discrepancy coordinates rather than only a global rejection. From observational data, we derive orthogonal doubly robust kernel features whose centered oracle form is the canonical gradient of this finite witness. For fixed locations, we characterize the local testing limit: DR-ME is chi-square calibrated under the null, has noncentral chi-square local power, and uses the covariance whitening that optimizes local signal-to-noise for discrepancies visible through the selected coordinates. This efficient local-power geometry yields a principled location-learning criterion, with sample splitting preserving post-selection validity. Experiments show near-nominal type-I error, competitive power against global doubly robust kernel tests, and interpretable learned locations that localize distributional effects in a semi-synthetic medical-imaging study.

preprint2014arXiv

Bounding Embeddings of VC Classes into Maximum Classes

One of the earliest conjectures in computational learning theory-the Sample Compression conjecture-asserts that concept classes (equivalently set systems) admit compression schemes of size linear in their VC dimension. To-date this statement is known to be true for maximum classes---those that possess maximum cardinality for their VC dimension. The most promising approach to positively resolving the conjecture is by embedding general VC classes into maximum classes without super-linear increase to their VC dimensions, as such embeddings would extend the known compression schemes to all VC classes. We show that maximum classes can be characterised by a local-connectivity property of the graph obtained by viewing the class as a cubical complex. This geometric characterisation of maximum VC classes is applied to prove a negative embedding result which demonstrates VC-d classes that cannot be embedded in any maximum class of VC dimension lower than 2d. On the other hand, we show that every VC-d class C embeds in a VC-(d+D) maximum class where D is the deficiency of C, i.e., the difference between the cardinalities of a maximum VC-d class and of C. For VC-2 classes in binary n-cubes for

preprint2024arXiv

AlpacaFarm: A Simulation Framework for Methods that Learn from Human Feedback

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have seen widespread adoption due to their strong instruction-following abilities. Developing these LLMs involves a complex yet poorly understood workflow requiring training with human feedback. Replicating and understanding this instruction-following requires tackling three major challenges: the high cost of data collection, the lack of trustworthy evaluation, and the absence of reference method implementations. We address these challenges with AlpacaFarm, a simulator that enables research and development for learning from feedback at a low cost. First, we design LLM prompts to simulate human feedback that are 50x cheaper than crowdworkers and display high agreement with humans. Second, we propose an automatic evaluation and validate it against human instructions obtained on real-world interactions. Third, we contribute reference implementations for several methods (PPO, DPO, best-of-n, expert iteration, and more) that learn from pairwise feedback. Finally, as an end-to-end validation of AlpacaFarm, we train and evaluate eleven models on 10k pairs of real human feedback and show that rankings of models trained in AlpacaFarm match rankings of models trained on human data. As a demonstration of the research possible in AlpacaFarm, we find that methods that use a reward model can substantially improve over supervised fine-tuning and that our reference PPO implementation leads to a +10% improvement in win-rate against Davinci003. We release all components of AlpacaFarm at https://github.com/tatsu-lab/alpaca_farm.

preprint2022arXiv

Interpretable pipelines with evolutionarily optimized modules for RL tasks with visual inputs

The importance of explainability in AI has become a pressing concern, for which several explainable AI (XAI) approaches have been recently proposed. However, most of the available XAI techniques are post-hoc methods, which however may be only partially reliable, as they do not reflect exactly the state of the original models. Thus, a more direct way for achieving XAI is through interpretable (also called glass-box) models. These models have been shown to obtain comparable (and, in some cases, better) performance with respect to black-boxes models in various tasks such as classification and reinforcement learning. However, they struggle when working with raw data, especially when the input dimensionality increases and the raw inputs alone do not give valuable insights on the decision-making process. Here, we propose to use end-to-end pipelines composed of multiple interpretable models co-optimized by means of evolutionary algorithms, that allows us to decompose the decision-making process into two parts: computing high-level features from raw data, and reasoning on the extracted high-level features. We test our approach in reinforcement learning environments from the Atari benchmark, where we obtain comparable results (with respect to black-box approaches) in settings without stochastic frame-skipping, while performance degrades in frame-skipping settings.

preprint2020arXiv

Adaptive Distillation for Decentralized Learning from Heterogeneous Clients

This paper addresses the problem of decentralized learning to achieve a high-performance global model by asking a group of clients to share local models pre-trained with their own data resources. We are particularly interested in a specific case where both the client model architectures and data distributions are diverse, which makes it nontrivial to adopt conventional approaches such as Federated Learning and network co-distillation. To this end, we propose a new decentralized learning method called Decentralized Learning via Adaptive Distillation (DLAD). Given a collection of client models and a large number of unlabeled distillation samples, the proposed DLAD 1) aggregates the outputs of the client models while adaptively emphasizing those with higher confidence in given distillation samples and 2) trains the global model to imitate the aggregated outputs. Our extensive experimental evaluation on multiple public datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CINIC-10) demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

preprint2020arXiv

Generative Feature Replay with Orthogonal Weight Modification for Continual Learning

The ability of intelligent agents to learn and remember multiple tasks sequentially is crucial to achieving artificial general intelligence. Many continual learning (CL) methods have been proposed to overcome catastrophic forgetting which results from non i.i.d data in the sequential learning of neural networks. In this paper we focus on class incremental learning, a challenging CL scenario. For this scenario, generative replay is a promising strategy which generates and replays pseudo data for previous tasks to alleviate catastrophic forgetting. However, it is hard to train a generative model continually for relatively complex data. Based on recently proposed orthogonal weight modification (OWM) algorithm which can approximately keep previously learned feature invariant when learning new tasks, we propose to 1) replay penultimate layer feature with a generative model; 2) leverage a self-supervised auxiliary task to further enhance the stability of feature. Empirical results on several datasets show our method always achieves substantial improvement over powerful OWM while conventional generative replay always results in a negative effect. Meanwhile our method beats several strong

preprint2019arXiv

Emulating dynamic non-linear simulators using Gaussian processes

The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models of the climate or the functioning of the human brain. The models we are interested in are highly non-linear and exhibit tipping points, bifurcations and chaotic behaviour. However, each simulation run could be too time-consuming to perform analyses that require many runs, including quantifying the variation in model output with respect to changes in the inputs. Therefore, Gaussian process emulators are used to approximate the output of the code. To do this, the flow map of the system under study is emulated over a short time period. Then, it is used in an iterative way to predict the whole time series. A number of ways are proposed to take into account the uncertainty of inputs to the emulators, after fixed initial conditions, and the correlation between them through the time series. The methodology is illustrated with two examples: the highly non-linear dynamical systems described by the Lorenz and Van der Pol equations. In both cases, the predictive performance is relatively high and the measure of uncertainty provided by the method reflects the extent of predictability in each system.

preprint2022arXiv

TransLog: A Unified Transformer-based Framework for Log Anomaly Detection

Log anomaly detection is a key component in the field of artificial intelligence for IT operations (AIOps). Considering log data of variant domains, retraining the whole network for unknown domains is inefficient in real industrial scenarios especially for low-resource domains. However, previous deep models merely focused on extracting the semantics of log sequence in the same domain, leading to poor generalization on multi-domain logs. Therefore, we propose a unified Transformer-based framework for log anomaly detection (\ourmethod{}), which is comprised of the pretraining and adapter-based tuning stage. Our model is first pretrained on the source domain to obtain shared semantic knowledge of log data. Then, we transfer the pretrained model to the target domain via the adapter-based tuning. The proposed method is evaluated on three public datasets including one source domain and two target domains. The experimental results demonstrate that our simple yet efficient approach, with fewer trainable parameters and lower training costs in the target domain, achieves state-of-the-art performance on three benchmarks.

preprint2022arXiv

Bias-Variance Decompositions for Margin Losses

We introduce a novel bias-variance decomposition for a range of strictly convex margin losses, including the logistic loss (minimized by the classic LogitBoost algorithm), as well as the squared margin loss and canonical boosting loss. Furthermore, we show that, for all strictly convex margin losses, the expected risk decomposes into the risk of a "central" model and a term quantifying variation in the functional margin with respect to variations in the training data. These decompositions provide a diagnostic tool for practitioners to understand model overfitting/underfitting, and have implications for additive ensemble models -- for example, when our bias-variance decomposition holds, there is a corresponding "ambiguity" decomposition, which can be used to quantify model diversity.

preprint2022arXiv

FedEntropy: Efficient Device Grouping for Federated Learning Using Maximum Entropy Judgment

Along with the popularity of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Internet-of-Things (IoT), Federated Learning (FL) has attracted steadily increasing attentions as a promising distributed machine learning paradigm, which enables the training of a central model on for numerous decentralized devices without exposing their privacy. However, due to the biased data distributions on involved devices, FL inherently suffers from low classification accuracy in non-IID scenarios. Although various device grouping method have been proposed to address this problem, most of them neglect both i) distinct data distribution characteristics of heterogeneous devices, and ii) contributions and hazards of local models, which are extremely important in determining the quality of global model aggregation. In this paper, we present an effective FL method named FedEntropy with a novel dynamic device grouping scheme, which makes full use of the above two factors based on our proposed maximum entropy judgement heuristic.Unlike existing FL methods that directly aggregate local models returned from all the selected devices, in one FL round FedEntropy firstly makes a judgement based on the pre-collected soft labels of selected devices and then only aggregates the local models that can maximize the overall entropy of these soft labels. Without collecting local models that are harmful for aggregation, FedEntropy can effectively improve global model accuracy while reducing the overall communication overhead. Comprehensive experimental results on well-known benchmarks show that, FedEntropy not only outperforms state-of-the-art FL methods in terms of model accuracy and communication overhead, but also can be integrated into them to enhance their classification performance.

preprint2026arXiv

Better Models, Faster Training: Sigmoid Attention for single-cell Foundation Models

Training stable biological foundation models requires rethinking attention mechanisms: we find that using sigmoid attention as a drop in replacement for softmax attention a) produces better learned representations: on six diverse single-cell datasets, sigmoid achieves 25% higher cell-type separation, better cell-type cohesion metrics, and lower validation loss, b) faster training, models with sigmoid attention train up to 10% faster than their softmax counterparts, and c) more stable training by eliminating inherent sources of instability in softmax attention. We establish that sigmoid attention has globally bounded derivatives ($\leq 0.25$) as opposed to softmax, and a diagonal Jacobian structure in contrast with softmax's dense coupling, which together help alleviate training instabilities. In stress tests on 160M-parameter bidirectional attention models trained without gradient clipping on 8K-token sequences, softmax diverges catastrophically, with gradients exploding by four orders of magnitude, while sigmoid remains stable. Finally, we implement and open-source TritonSigmoid, an efficient GPU kernel that achieves 515 TFLOPS on H100 GPUs, outperforming both FlashAttention-2 and FlashSigmoid, with native padding support, which is essential for biological sequences. Our results establish sigmoid attention as both theoretically grounded and empirically superior for biological foundation models. Code is available at https://github.com/MSDLLCpapers/triton-sigmoid

preprint2020arXiv

DeepPlume: Very High Resolution Real-Time Air Quality Mapping

This paper presents an engine able to predict jointly the real-time concentration of the main pollutants harming people's health: nitrogen dioxyde (NO2), ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10, which are respectively the particles whose size are below 2.5 um and 10 um). The engine covers a large part of the world and is fed with real-time official stations measures, atmospheric models' forecasts, land cover data, road networks and traffic estimates to produce predictions with a very high resolution in the range of a few dozens of meters. This resolution makes the engine adapted to very innovative applications like street-level air quality mapping or air quality adjusted routing. Plume Labs has deployed a similar prediction engine to build several products aiming at providing air quality data to individuals and businesses. For the sake of clarity and reproducibility, the engine presented here has been built specifically for this paper and differs quite significantly from the one used in Plume Labs' products. A major difference is in the data sources feeding the engine: in particular, this prediction engine does not include mobile sensors measurements.

preprint2015arXiv

GSNs : Generative Stochastic Networks

We introduce a novel training principle for probabilistic models that is an alternative to maximum likelihood. The proposed Generative Stochastic Networks (GSN) framework is based on learning the transition operator of a Markov chain whose stationary distribution estimates the data distribution. Because the transition distribution is a conditional distribution generally involving a small move, it has fewer dominant modes, being unimodal in the limit of small moves. Thus, it is easier to learn, more like learning to perform supervised function approximation, with gradients that can be obtained by back-propagation. The theorems provided here generalize recent work on the probabilistic interpretation of denoising auto-encoders and provide an interesting justification for dependency networks and generalized pseudolikelihood (along with defining an appropriate joint distribution and sampling mechanism, even when the conditionals are not consistent). We study how GSNs can be used with missing inputs and can be used to sample subsets of variables given the rest. Successful experiments are conducted, validating these theoretical results, on two image datasets and with a particular architec

preprint2026arXiv

The Growing Pains of Frontier Models: When Leaderboards Stop Separating and What to Measure Next

Leaderboards rank frontier models on independent axes but do not reveal whether capabilities reinforce or trade off across releases -- and at the frontier, this interaction is the more informative signal. We decompose paired SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond scores into a population coupling trend and per-release residual ($h$-field) that diagnoses capability emphasis and identifies which measurement or stress test is most informative next. Across 34 models from 10 labs (2024--2026), capabilities cooperate ($r = +0.72$, $p < 10^{-6}$), but cooperation varies by lab and over time: DeepSeek reversed from reasoning-rich to coding-first ($h$: $+11.2 \to -4.7$, 15.9-pp swing); Google maintains consistent reasoning emphasis; Anthropic oscillates between coding excursions and recovery. Cooperation is not static -- it cascades. Six open-weight architectures confirm a second capability transition at 30--72B, and SWE-bench is now saturating while HLE and instruction-following retain discriminatory spread -- signaling the next axis rotation. We provide a three-level playbook (locate, diagnose, rotate), a per-lab measurement-priority table, and seven falsifiable predictions with timestamped criteria for the next 12 months of frontier releases. Per-lab coupling slopes vary $5\times$ (Google $1.15$ vs. DeepSeek $0.23$), quantifying how efficiently each recipe converts coding gains into reasoning. Five April 2026 releases confirm the diagnostic out of sample ($r$ rises from $+0.72$ to $+0.75$). An interactive dashboard provides phase classification with actionable recommendations, $h$-field diagnostics, per-lab coupling trajectories, ODE-based scaling predictions, benchmark rotation guidance, self-steering demo, and live tracking of all seven predictions: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

preprint2022arXiv

Confidence-Aware Imitation Learning from Demonstrations with Varying Optimality

Most existing imitation learning approaches assume the demonstrations are drawn from experts who are optimal, but relaxing this assumption enables us to use a wider range of data. Standard imitation learning may learn a suboptimal policy from demonstrations with varying optimality. Prior works use confidence scores or rankings to capture beneficial information from demonstrations with varying optimality, but they suffer from many limitations, e.g., manually annotated confidence scores or high average optimality of demonstrations. In this paper, we propose a general framework to learn from demonstrations with varying optimality that jointly learns the confidence score and a well-performing policy. Our approach, Confidence-Aware Imitation Learning (CAIL) learns a well-performing policy from confidence-reweighted demonstrations, while using an outer loss to track the performance of our model and to learn the confidence. We provide theoretical guarantees on the convergence of CAIL and evaluate its performance in both simulated and real robot experiments. Our results show that CAIL significantly outperforms other imitation learning methods from demonstrations with varying optimality. We further show that even without access to any optimal demonstrations, CAIL can still learn a successful policy, and outperforms prior work.

preprint2013arXiv

Approximate Kalman Filter Q-Learning for Continuous State-Space MDPs

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those weights and we have developed a simpler approximate Kalman filter model that outperforms the current state of the art projected TD-Learning methods on several standard benchmark problems.

preprint2020arXiv

Kernelized Complete Conditional Stein Discrepancy

Much of machine learning relies on comparing distributions with discrepancy measures. Stein's method creates discrepancy measures between two distributions that require only the unnormalized density of one and samples from the other. Stein discrepancies can be combined with kernels to define kernelized Stein discrepancies (KSDs). While kernels make Stein discrepancies tractable, they pose several challenges in high dimensions. We introduce kernelized complete conditional Stein discrepancies (KCC-SDs). Complete conditionals turn a multivariate distribution into multiple univariate distributions. We show that KCC-SDs distinguish distributions. To show the efficacy of KCC-SDs in distinguishing distributions, we introduce a goodness-of-fit test using KCC-SDs. We empirically show that KCC-SDs have higher power over baselines and use KCC-SDs to assess sample quality in Markov chain Monte Carlo.

preprint2018arXiv

Neuroimaging Modality Fusion in Alzheimer's Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Automated methods for Alzheimer's disease (AD) classification have the potential for great clinical benefits and may provide insight for combating the disease. Machine learning, and more specifically deep neural networks, have been shown to have great efficacy in this domain. These algorithms often use neurological imaging data such as MRI and PET, but a comprehensive and balanced comparison of these modalities has not been performed. In order to accurately determine the relative strength of each imaging variant, this work performs a comparison study in the context of Alzheimer's dementia classification using the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset. Furthermore, this work analyzes the benefits of using both modalities in a fusion setting and discusses how these data types may be leveraged in future AD studies using deep learning.

preprint2022arXiv

Practical Aspects of Zero-Shot Learning

One of important areas of machine learning research is zero-shot learning. It is applied when properly labeled training data set is not available. A number of zero-shot algorithms have been proposed and experimented with. However, none of them seems to be the "overall winner". In situations like this, it may be possible to develop a meta-classifier that would combine "best aspects" of individual classifiers and outperform all of them. In this context, the goal of this contribution is twofold. First, multiple state-of-the-art zero-shot learning methods are compared for standard benchmark datasets. Second, multiple meta-classifiers are suggested and experimentally compared (for the same datasets).