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Variational Federated Multi-Task Learningworkpreprint / 2021 / arXiv A Dynamical System Perspective for Lipschitz Neural Networksworkpreprint / 2022 / arXiv Continuously Reliable Detection of New-Normal Misinformation: Semantic Masking and Contrastive Smoothing in High-Density Latent Regionsworkpreprint / 2023 / arXiv Machine Learningtopic49008 works

preprint2021arXiv

Variational Federated Multi-Task Learning

In federated learning, a central server coordinates the training of a single model on a massively distributed network of devices. This setting can be naturally extended to a multi-task learning framework, to handle real-world federated datasets that typically show strong statistical heterogeneity among devices. Despite federated multi-task learning being shown to be an effective paradigm for real-world datasets, it has been applied only on convex models. In this work, we introduce VIRTUAL, an algorithm for federated multi-task learning for general non-convex models. In VIRTUAL the federated network of the server and the clients is treated as a star-shaped Bayesian network, and learning is performed on the network using approximated variational inference. We show that this method is effective on real-world federated datasets, outperforming the current state-of-the-art for federated learning, and concurrently allowing sparser gradient updates.

preprint2022arXiv

A Dynamical System Perspective for Lipschitz Neural Networks

The Lipschitz constant of neural networks has been established as a key quantity to enforce the robustness to adversarial examples. In this paper, we tackle the problem of building $1$-Lipschitz Neural Networks. By studying Residual Networks from a continuous time dynamical system perspective, we provide a generic method to build $1$-Lipschitz Neural Networks and show that some previous approaches are special cases of this framework. Then, we extend this reasoning and show that ResNet flows derived from convex potentials define $1$-Lipschitz transformations, that lead us to define the {\em Convex Potential Layer} (CPL). A comprehensive set of experiments on several datasets demonstrates the scalability of our architecture and the benefits as an $\ell_2$-provable defense against adversarial examples.

preprint2023arXiv

Continuously Reliable Detection of New-Normal Misinformation: Semantic Masking and Contrastive Smoothing in High-Density Latent Regions

Toxic misinformation campaigns have caused significant societal harm, e.g., affecting elections and COVID-19 information awareness. Unfortunately, despite successes of (gold standard) retrospective studies of misinformation that confirmed their harmful effects after the fact, they arrive too late for timely intervention and reduction of such harm. By design, misinformation evades retrospective classifiers by exploiting two properties we call new-normal: (1) never-seen-before novelty that cause inescapable generalization challenges for previous classifiers, and (2) massive but short campaigns that end before they can be manually annotated for new classifier training. To tackle these challenges, we propose UFIT, which combines two techniques: semantic masking of strong signal keywords to reduce overfitting, and intra-proxy smoothness regularization of high-density regions in the latent space to improve reliability and maintain accuracy. Evaluation of UFIT on public new-normal misinformation data shows over 30% improvement over existing approaches on future (and unseen) campaigns. To the best of our knowledge, UFIT is the first successful effort to achieve such high level of generalization on new-normal misinformation data with minimal concession (1 to 5%) of accuracy compared to oracles trained with full knowledge of all campaigns.

preprint2012arXiv

Bayesian structure learning using dynamic programming and MCMC

MCMC methods for sampling from the space of DAGs can mix poorly due to the local nature of the proposals that are commonly used. It has been shown that sampling from the space of node orders yields better results [FK03, EW06]. Recently, Koivisto and Sood showed how one can analytically marginalize over orders using dynamic programming (DP) [KS04, Koi06]. Their method computes the exact marginal posterior edge probabilities, thus avoiding the need for MCMC. Unfortunately, there are four drawbacks to the DP technique: it can only use modular priors, it can only compute posteriors over modular features, it is difficult to compute a predictive density, and it takes exponential time and space. We show how to overcome the first three of these problems by using the DP algorithm as a proposal distribution for MCMC in DAG space. We show that this hybrid technique converges to the posterior faster than other methods, resulting in more accurate structure learning and higher predictive likelihoods on test data.

preprint2015arXiv

A Semi-Supervised Method for Predicting Cancer Survival Using Incomplete Clinical Data

Prediction of survival for cancer patients is an open area of research. However, many of these studies focus on datasets with a large number of patients. We present a novel method that is specifically designed to address the challenge of data scarcity, which is often the case for cancer datasets. Our method is able to use unlabeled data to improve classification by adopting a semi-supervised training approach to learn an ensemble classifier. The results of applying our method to three cancer datasets show the promise of semi-supervised learning for prediction of cancer survival.

preprint2022arXiv

One-bit Submission for Locally Private Quasi-MLE: Its Asymptotic Normality and Limitation

Local differential privacy~(LDP) is an information-theoretic privacy definition suitable for statistical surveys that involve an untrusted data curator. An LDP version of quasi-maximum likelihood estimator~(QMLE) has been developed, but the existing method to build LDP QMLE is difficult to implement for a large-scale survey system in the real world due to long waiting time, expensive communication cost, and the boundedness assumption of derivative of a log-likelihood function. We provided an alternative LDP protocol without those issues, which is potentially much easily deployable to a large-scale survey. We also provided sufficient conditions for the consistency and asymptotic normality and limitations of our protocol. Our protocol is less burdensome for the users, and the theoretical guarantees cover more realistic cases than those for the existing method.

preprint2022arXiv

Convergence of the Riemannian Langevin Algorithm

We study the Riemannian Langevin Algorithm for the problem of sampling from a distribution with density $ν$ with respect to the natural measure on a manifold with metric $g$. We assume that the target density satisfies a log-Sobolev inequality with respect to the metric and prove that the manifold generalization of the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm converges rapidly to $ν$ for Hessian manifolds. This allows us to reduce the problem of sampling non-smooth (constrained) densities in ${\bf R}^n$ to sampling smooth densities over appropriate manifolds, while needing access only to the gradient of the log-density, and this, in turn, to sampling from the natural Brownian motion on the manifold. Our main analytic tools are (1) an extension of self-concordance to manifolds, and (2) a stochastic approach to bounding smoothness on manifolds. A special case of our approach is sampling isoperimetric densities restricted to polytopes by using the metric defined by the logarithmic barrier.

preprint2020arXiv

Information Theoretic Regret Bounds for Online Nonlinear Control

This work studies the problem of sequential control in an unknown, nonlinear dynamical system, where we model the underlying system dynamics as an unknown function in a known Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. This framework yields a general setting that permits discrete and continuous control inputs as well as non-smooth, non-differentiable dynamics. Our main result, the Lower Confidence-based Continuous Control ($LC^3$) algorithm, enjoys a near-optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret bound against the optimal controller in episodic settings, where $T$ is the number of episodes. The bound has no explicit dependence on dimension of the system dynamics, which could be infinite, but instead only depends on information theoretic quantities. We empirically show its application to a number of nonlinear control tasks and demonstrate the benefit of exploration for learning model dynamics.

preprint2016arXiv

Conditional Risk Minimization for Stochastic Processes

We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set of training samples observed so far. For non-i.i.d. data, the training set contains information about the upcoming samples, so learning with respect to the conditional distribution can be expected to yield better predictors than one obtains from the classical setting of minimizing the marginal risk. Our main contribution is a practical estimator for the conditional risk based on the theory of non-parametric time-series prediction, and a finite sample concentration bound that establishes uniform convergence of the estimator to the true conditional risk under certain regularity assumptions on the process.

preprint2012arXiv

Web-Based Benchmark for Keystroke Dynamics Biometric Systems: A Statistical Analysis

Most keystroke dynamics studies have been evaluated using a specific kind of dataset in which users type an imposed login and password. Moreover, these studies are optimistics since most of them use different acquisition protocols, private datasets, controlled environment, etc. In order to enhance the accuracy of keystroke dynamics' performance, the main contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we provide a new kind of dataset in which users have typed both an imposed and a chosen pairs of logins and passwords. In addition, the keystroke dynamics samples are collected in a web-based uncontrolled environment (OS, keyboards, browser, etc.). Such kind of dataset is important since it provides us more realistic results of keystroke dynamics' performance in comparison to the literature (controlled environment, etc.). Second, we present a statistical analysis of well known assertions such as the relationship between performance and password size, impact of fusion schemes on system overall performance, and others such as the relationship between performance and entropy. We put into obviousness in this paper some new results on keystroke dynamics in realistic conditions.

preprint2020arXiv

Interaction Networks: Using a Reinforcement Learner to train other Machine Learning algorithms

The wiring of neurons in the brain is more flexible than the wiring of connections in contemporary artificial neural networks. It is possible that this extra flexibility is important for efficient problem solving and learning. This paper introduces the Interaction Network. Interaction Networks aim to capture some of this extra flexibility. An Interaction Network consists of a collection of conventional neural networks, a set of memory locations, and a DQN or other reinforcement learner. The DQN decides when each of the neural networks is executed, and on what memory locations. In this way, the individual neural networks can be trained on different data, for different tasks. At the same time, the results of the individual networks influence the decision process of the reinforcement learner. This results in a feedback loop that allows the DQN to perform actions that improve its own decision-making. Any existing type of neural network can be reproduced in an Interaction Network in its entirety, with only a constant computational overhead. Interaction Networks can then introduce additional features to improve performance further. These make the algorithm more flexible and general, but

preprint2015arXiv

HHCART: An Oblique Decision Tree

Decision trees are a popular technique in statistical data classification. They recursively partition the feature space into disjoint sub-regions until each sub-region becomes homogeneous with respect to a particular class. The basic Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm partitions the feature space using axis parallel splits. When the true decision boundaries are not aligned with the feature axes, this approach can produce a complicated boundary structure. Oblique decision trees use oblique decision boundaries to potentially simplify the boundary structure. The major limitation of this approach is that the tree induction algorithm is computationally expensive. In this article we present a new decision tree algorithm, called HHCART. The method utilizes a series of Householder matrices to reflect the training data at each node during the tree construction. Each reflection is based on the directions of the eigenvectors from each classes' covariance matrix. Considering axis parallel splits in the reflected training data provides an efficient way of finding oblique splits in the unreflected training data. Experimental results show that the accuracy and size of the HHC

preprint2022arXiv

SGEM: stochastic gradient with energy and momentum

In this paper, we propose SGEM, Stochastic Gradient with Energy and Momentum, to solve a large class of general non-convex stochastic optimization problems, based on the AEGD method that originated in the work [AEGD: Adaptive Gradient Descent with Energy. arXiv: 2010.05109]. SGEM incorporates both energy and momentum at the same time so as to inherit their dual advantages. We show that SGEM features an unconditional energy stability property, and derive energy-dependent convergence rates in the general nonconvex stochastic setting, as well as a regret bound in the online convex setting. A lower threshold for the energy variable is also provided. Our experimental results show that SGEM converges faster than AEGD and generalizes better or at least as well as SGDM in training some deep neural networks.

preprint2022arXiv

Activation Functions: Dive into an optimal activation function

Activation functions have come up as one of the essential components of neural networks. The choice of adequate activation function can impact the accuracy of these methods. In this study, we experiment for finding an optimal activation function by defining it as a weighted sum of existing activation functions and then further optimizing these weights while training the network. The study uses three activation functions, ReLU, tanh, and sin, over three popular image datasets, MNIST, FashionMNIST, and KMNIST. We observe that the ReLU activation function can easily overlook other activation functions. Also, we see that initial layers prefer to have ReLU or LeakyReLU type of activation functions, but deeper layers tend to prefer more convergent activation functions.

preprint2021arXiv

The EpiBench Platform to Propel AI/ML-based Epidemic Forecasting: A Prototype Demonstration Reaching Human Expert-level Performance

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The "covid-forecast-hub" is a collection of more than 30 teams, including us, that submit their forecasts weekly to the CDC. It is not possible to declare whether one method is better than the other using those forecasts because each team's submission may correspond to different techniques over the period and involve human interventions as the teams are continuously changing/tuning their approach. Such forecasts may be considered "human-expert" forecasts and do not qualify as AI/ML approaches, although they can be used as an indicator of human expert performance. We are interested in supporting AI/ML research in epidemic forecasting which can lead to scalable forecasting without human intervention. Which modeling technique, learning strategy, and data pre-processing technique work well for epidemic forecasting is still an open problem. To help advance the state-of-the-art AI/ML applied to epidemiology, a benchmark with a collection of performance points is needed and the current "state-of-the-art" techniques need to be identified. We propose EpiBench a platform consisting of community-driven benchmarks for AI/ML applied to epidemic forecasting to standardize the challenge with a uniform evaluation protocol. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of EpiBench which is currently running and accepting submissions for the task of forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US states and We demonstrate that we can utilize the prototype to develop an ensemble relying on fully automated epidemic forecasts (no human intervention) that reaches human-expert level ensemble currently being used by the CDC.

preprint2021arXiv

Divide-and-conquer methods for big data analysis

In the context of big data analysis, the divide-and-conquer methodology refers to a multiple-step process: first splitting a data set into several smaller ones; then analyzing each set separately; finally combining results from each analysis together. This approach is effective in handling large data sets that are unsuitable to be analyzed entirely by a single computer due to limits either from memory storage or computational time. The combined results will provide a statistical inference which is similar to the one from analyzing the entire data set. This article reviews some recently developments of divide-and-conquer methods in a variety of settings, including combining based on parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric models, online sequential updating methods, among others. Theoretical development on the efficiency of the divide-and-conquer methods is also discussed.

preprint2021arXiv

Adversarial Poisoning Attacks and Defense for General Multi-Class Models Based On Synthetic Reduced Nearest Neighbors

State-of-the-art machine learning models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks whose purpose is to undermine the integrity of the model. However, the current literature on data poisoning attacks is mainly focused on ad hoc techniques that are only applicable to specific machine learning models. Additionally, the existing data poisoning attacks in the literature are limited to either binary classifiers or to gradient-based algorithms. To address these limitations, this paper first proposes a novel model-free label-flipping attack based on the multi-modality of the data, in which the adversary targets the clusters of classes while constrained by a label-flipping budget. The complexity of our proposed attack algorithm is linear in time over the size of the dataset. Also, the proposed attack can increase the error up to two times for the same attack budget. Second, a novel defense technique based on the Synthetic Reduced Nearest Neighbor (SRNN) model is proposed. The defense technique can detect and exclude flipped samples on the fly during the training procedure. Through extensive experimental analysis, we demonstrate that (i) the proposed attack technique can deteriorate the accuracy of several models drastically, and (ii) under the proposed attack, the proposed defense technique significantly outperforms other conventional machine learning models in recovering the accuracy of the targeted model.

preprint2026arXiv

Traffic-Aware Optimal Taxi Placement Using Graph Neural Network-Based Reinforcement Learning

In the context of smart city transportation, efficient matching of taxi supply with passenger demand requires real-time integration of urban traffic network data and mobility patterns. Conventional taxi hotspot prediction models often rely solely on historical demand, overlooking dynamic influences such as traffic congestion, road incidents, and public events. This paper presents a traffic-aware, graph-based reinforcement learning (RL) framework for optimal taxi placement in metropolitan environments. The urban road network is modeled as a graph where intersections represent nodes, road segments serve as edges, and node attributes capture historical demand, event proximity, and real-time congestion scores obtained from live traffic APIs. Graph Neural Network (GNN) embeddings are employed to encode spatial-temporal dependencies within the traffic network, which are then used by a Q-learning agent to recommend optimal taxi hotspots. The reward mechanism jointly optimizes passenger waiting time, driver travel distance, and congestion avoidance. Experiments on a simulated Delhi taxi dataset, generated using real geospatial boundaries and historic ride-hailing request patterns, demonstr

preprint2014arXiv

Meteorological time series forecasting based on MLP modelling using heterogeneous transfer functions

In this paper, we propose to study four meteorological and seasonal time series coupled with a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) modeling. We chose to combine two transfer functions for the nodes of the hidden layer, and to use a temporal indicator (time index as input) in order to take into account the seasonal aspect of the studied time series. The results of the prediction concern two years of measurements and the learning step, eight independent years. We show that this methodology can improve the accuracy of meteorological data estimation compared to a classical MLP modelling with a homogenous transfer function.

preprint2014arXiv

RMSE-ELM: Recursive Model based Selective Ensemble of Extreme Learning Machines for Robustness Improvement

Extreme learning machine (ELM) as an emerging branch of shallow networks has shown its excellent generalization and fast learning speed. However, for blended data, the robustness of ELM is weak because its weights and biases of hidden nodes are set randomly. Moreover, the noisy data exert a negative effect. To solve this problem, a new framework called RMSE-ELM is proposed in this paper. It is a two-layer recursive model. In the first layer, the framework trains lots of ELMs in different groups concurrently, then employs selective ensemble to pick out an optimal set of ELMs in each group, which can be merged into a large group of ELMs called candidate pool. In the second layer, selective ensemble is recursively used on candidate pool to acquire the final ensemble. In the experiments, we apply UCI blended datasets to confirm the robustness of our new approach in two key aspects (mean square error and standard deviation). The space complexity of our method is increased to some degree, but the results have shown that RMSE-ELM significantly improves robustness with slightly computational time compared with representative methods (ELM, OP-ELM, GASEN-ELM, GASEN-BP and E-GASEN). It become

preprint2022arXiv

Leveraging Language Foundation Models for Human Mobility Forecasting

In this paper, we propose a novel pipeline that leverages language foundation models for temporal sequential pattern mining, such as for human mobility forecasting tasks. For example, in the task of predicting Place-of-Interest (POI) customer flows, typically the number of visits is extracted from historical logs, and only the numerical data are used to predict visitor flows. In this research, we perform the forecasting task directly on the natural language input that includes all kinds of information such as numerical values and contextual semantic information. Specific prompts are introduced to transform numerical temporal sequences into sentences so that existing language models can be directly applied. We design an AuxMobLCast pipeline for predicting the number of visitors in each POI, integrating an auxiliary POI category classification task with the encoder-decoder architecture. This research provides empirical evidence of the effectiveness of the proposed AuxMobLCast pipeline to discover sequential patterns in mobility forecasting tasks. The results, evaluated on three real-world datasets, demonstrate that pre-trained language foundation models also have good performance in forecasting temporal sequences. This study could provide visionary insights and lead to new research directions for predicting human mobility.

preprint2022arXiv

Contrastive Code Representation Learning

Recent work learns contextual representations of source code by reconstructing tokens from their context. For downstream semantic understanding tasks like summarizing code in English, these representations should ideally capture program functionality. However, we show that the popular reconstruction-based BERT model is sensitive to source code edits, even when the edits preserve semantics. We propose ContraCode: a contrastive pre-training task that learns code functionality, not form. ContraCode pre-trains a neural network to identify functionally similar variants of a program among many non-equivalent distractors. We scalably generate these variants using an automated source-to-source compiler as a form of data augmentation. Contrastive pre-training improves JavaScript summarization and TypeScript type inference accuracy by 2% to 13%. We also propose a new zero-shot JavaScript code clone detection dataset, showing that ContraCode is both more robust and semantically meaningful. On it, we outperform RoBERTa by 39% AUROC in an adversarial setting and up to 5% on natural code.

preprint2022arXiv

Graph Masked Autoencoders with Transformers

Recently, transformers have shown promising performance in learning graph representations. However, there are still some challenges when applying transformers to real-world scenarios due to the fact that deep transformers are hard to train from scratch and the quadratic memory consumption w.r.t. the number of nodes. In this paper, we propose Graph Masked Autoencoders (GMAEs), a self-supervised transformer-based model for learning graph representations. To address the above two challenges, we adopt the masking mechanism and the asymmetric encoder-decoder design. Specifically, GMAE takes partially masked graphs as input, and reconstructs the features of the masked nodes. The encoder and decoder are asymmetric, where the encoder is a deep transformer and the decoder is a shallow transformer. The masking mechanism and the asymmetric design make GMAE a memory-efficient model compared with conventional transformers. We show that, when serving as a conventional self-supervised graph representation model, GMAE achieves state-of-the-art performance on both the graph classification task and the node classification task under common downstream evaluation protocols. We also show that, compared with training in an end-to-end manner from scratch, we can achieve comparable performance after pre-training and fine-tuning using GMAE while simplifying the training process.

preprint2013arXiv

Streaming Variational Bayes

We present SDA-Bayes, a framework for (S)treaming, (D)istributed, (A)synchronous computation of a Bayesian posterior. The framework makes streaming updates to the estimated posterior according to a user-specified approximation batch primitive. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework, with variational Bayes (VB) as the primitive, by fitting the latent Dirichlet allocation model to two large-scale document collections. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm over stochastic variational inference (SVI) by comparing the two after a single pass through a known amount of data---a case where SVI may be applied---and in the streaming setting, where SVI does not apply.

preprint2016arXiv

Dynamic Metric Learning from Pairwise Comparisons

Recent work in distance metric learning has focused on learning transformations of data that best align with specified pairwise similarity and dissimilarity constraints, often supplied by a human observer. The learned transformations lead to improved retrieval, classification, and clustering algorithms due to the better adapted distance or similarity measures. Here, we address the problem of learning these transformations when the underlying constraint generation process is nonstationary. This nonstationarity can be due to changes in either the ground-truth clustering used to generate constraints or changes in the feature subspaces in which the class structure is apparent. We propose Online Convex Ensemble StrongLy Adaptive Dynamic Learning (OCELAD), a general adaptive, online approach for learning and tracking optimal metrics as they change over time that is highly robust to a variety of nonstationary behaviors in the changing metric. We apply the OCELAD framework to an ensemble of online learners. Specifically, we create a retro-initialized composite objective mirror descent (COMID) ensemble (RICE) consisting of a set of parallel COMID learners with different learning rates, demo

preprint2022arXiv

FedControl: When Control Theory Meets Federated Learning

To date, the most popular federated learning algorithms use coordinate-wise averaging of the model parameters. We depart from this approach by differentiating client contributions according to the performance of local learning and its evolution. The technique is inspired from control theory and its classification performance is evaluated extensively in IID framework and compared with FedAvg.

preprint2011arXiv

Tree Exploration for Bayesian RL Exploration

Research in reinforcement learning has produced algorithms for optimal decision making under uncertainty that fall within two main types. The first employs a Bayesian framework, where optimality improves with increased computational time. This is because the resulting planning task takes the form of a dynamic programming problem on a belief tree with an infinite number of states. The second type employs relatively simple algorithm which are shown to suffer small regret within a distribution-free framework. This paper presents a lower bound and a high probability upper bound on the optimal value function for the nodes in the Bayesian belief tree, which are analogous to similar bounds in POMDPs. The bounds are then used to create more efficient strategies for exploring the tree. The resulting algorithms are compared with the distribution-free algorithm UCB1, as well as a simpler baseline algorithm on multi-armed bandit problems.

preprint2022arXiv

A Relational Intervention Approach for Unsupervised Dynamics Generalization in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

The generalization of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) methods to environments with unseen transition dynamics is an important yet challenging problem. Existing methods try to extract environment-specified information $Z$ from past transition segments to make the dynamics prediction model generalizable to different dynamics. However, because environments are not labelled, the extracted information inevitably contains redundant information unrelated to the dynamics in transition segments and thus fails to maintain a crucial property of $Z$: $Z$ should be similar in the same environment and dissimilar in different ones. As a result, the learned dynamics prediction function will deviate from the true one, which undermines the generalization ability. To tackle this problem, we introduce an interventional prediction module to estimate the probability of two estimated $\hat{z}_i, \hat{z}_j$ belonging to the same environment. Furthermore, by utilizing the $Z$'s invariance within a single environment, a relational head is proposed to enforce the similarity between $\hat{Z}$ from the same environment. As a result, the redundant information will be reduced in $\hat{Z}$. We empirically show that $\hat{Z}$ estimated by our method enjoy less redundant information than previous methods, and such $\hat{Z}$ can significantly reduce dynamics prediction errors and improve the performance of model-based RL methods on zero-shot new environments with unseen dynamics. The codes of this method are available at \url{https://github.com/CR-Gjx/RIA}.

preprint2026arXiv

Aligning Flow Map Policies with Optimal Q-Guidance

Generative policies based on expressive model classes, such as diffusion and flow matching, are well-suited to complex control problems with highly multimodal action distributions. Their expressivity, however, comes at a significant inference cost: generating each action typically requires simulating many steps of the generative process, compounding latency across sequential decision-making rollouts. We introduce flow map policies, a novel class of generative policies designed for fast action generation by learning to take arbitrary-size jumps including one-step jumps-across the generative dynamics of existing flow-based policies. We instantiate flow map policies for offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) and formulate online adaptation as a trust-region optimization problem that improves the critic's Q-value while remaining close to the offline policy. We theoretically derive FLOW MAP Q-GUIDANCE (FMQ), a principled closed-form learning target that is optimal for adapting offline flow map policies under a critic-guided trust-region constraint. We further introduce Q-GUIDED BEAM SEARCH (QGBS), a stochastic flow-map sampler that combines renoising with beam search to enable iterative inference-time refinement. Across 12 challenging robotic manipulation and locomotion tasks from OGBench and RoboMimic, FMQ achieves state-of-the-art performance in offline-to-online RL, outperforming the previous one-step policy MVP by a relative improvement of 21.3% on the average success rate.

preprint2015arXiv

Nested Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes for Multi-Level Non-Parametric Admixture Modeling

Dirichlet Process(DP) is a Bayesian non-parametric prior for infinite mixture modeling, where the number of mixture components grows with the number of data items. The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP), is an extension of DP for grouped data, often used for non-parametric topic modeling, where each group is a mixture over shared mixture densities. The Nested Dirichlet Process (nDP), on the other hand, is an extension of the DP for learning group level distributions from data, simultaneously clustering the groups. It allows group level distributions to be shared across groups in a non-parametric setting, leading to a non-parametric mixture of mixtures. The nCRF extends the nDP for multilevel non-parametric mixture modeling, enabling modeling topic hierarchies. However, the nDP and nCRF do not allow sharing of distributions as required in many applications, motivating the need for multi-level non-parametric admixture modeling. We address this gap by proposing multi-level nested HDPs (nHDP) where the base distribution of the HDP is itself a HDP at each level thereby leading to admixtures of admixtures at each level. Because of couplings between various HDP levels, scaling up is nat

preprint2020arXiv

FrugalML: How to Use ML Prediction APIs More Accurately and Cheaply

Prediction APIs offered for a fee are a fast-growing industry and an important part of machine learning as a service. While many such services are available, the heterogeneity in their price and performance makes it challenging for users to decide which API or combination of APIs to use for their own data and budget. We take a first step towards addressing this challenge by proposing FrugalML, a principled framework that jointly learns the strength and weakness of each API on different data, and performs an efficient optimization to automatically identify the best sequential strategy to adaptively use the available APIs within a budget constraint. Our theoretical analysis shows that natural sparsity in the formulation can be leveraged to make FrugalML efficient. We conduct systematic experiments using ML APIs from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, Baidu and other providers for tasks including facial emotion recognition, sentiment analysis and speech recognition. Across various tasks, FrugalML can achieve up to 90% cost reduction while matching the accuracy of the best single API, or up to 5% better accuracy while matching the best API's cost.

preprint2026arXiv

On the Identifiability of Regime-Switching Models with Multi-Lag Dependencies

Identifiability is central to the interpretability of deep latent variable models, ensuring parameterisations are uniquely determined by the data-generating distribution. However, it remains underexplored for deep regime-switching time series. We develop a general theoretical framework for multi-lag Regime-Switching Models (RSMs), encompassing Markov Switching Models (MSMs) and Switching Dynamical Systems (SDSs). For MSMs, we formulate the model as a temporally structured finite mixture and prove identifiability of both the number of regimes and the multi-lag transitions in a nonlinear-Gaussian setting. For SDSs, we establish identifiability of the latent variables up to permutation and scaling via temporal structure, which in turn yields conditions for identifiability of regime-dependent latent causal graphs (up to regime/node permutations). Our results hold in a fully unsupervised setting through architectural and noise assumptions that are directly enforceable via neural network design. We complement the theory with a flexible variational estimator that satisfies the assumptions and validate the results on synthetic benchmarks. Across real-world datasets from neuroscience, finan