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Zijian Liu

Zijian Liu contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

3 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Can Adaptive Gradient Methods Converge under Heavy-Tailed Noise? A Case Study of AdaGrad

Many tasks in modern machine learning are observed to involve heavy-tailed gradient noise during the optimization process. To manage this realistic and challenging setting, new mechanisms, such as gradient clipping and gradient normalization, have been introduced to ensure the convergence of first-order algorithms. However, adaptive gradient methods, a famous class of modern optimizers that includes popular $\mathtt{Adam}$ and $\mathtt{AdamW}$, often perform well even without any extra operations mentioned above. It is therefore natural to ask whether adaptive gradient methods can converge under heavy-tailed noise without any algorithmic changes. In this work, we take the first step toward answering this question by investigating a special case, $\mathtt{AdaGrad}$, the origin of adaptive gradient methods. We provide the first provable convergence rate for $\mathtt{AdaGrad}$ in non-convex optimization when the tail index $p$ satisfies $4/3<p\leq2$. Notably, this result is achieved without requiring any prior knowledge of $p$ and is hence adaptive to the tail index. In addition, we develop an algorithm-dependent lower bound, suggesting that the existing minimax rate for heavy-tailed optimization is not attainable by $\mathtt{AdaGrad}$. Lastly, we consider $\mathtt{AdaGrad}\text{-}\mathtt{Norm}$, a popular variant of $\mathtt{AdaGrad}$ in theoretical studies, and show an improved rate that holds for any $1<p\leq2$ under an extra mild assumption.

preprint2026arXiv

FutureX-Pro: Extending Future Prediction to High-Value Vertical Domains

Building upon FutureX, which established a live benchmark for general-purpose future prediction, this report introduces FutureX-Pro, including FutureX-Finance, FutureX-Retail, FutureX-PublicHealth, FutureX-NaturalDisaster, and FutureX-Search. These together form a specialized framework extending agentic future prediction to high-value vertical domains. While generalist agents demonstrate proficiency in open-domain search, their reliability in capital-intensive and safety-critical sectors remains under-explored. FutureX-Pro targets four economically and socially pivotal verticals: Finance, Retail, Public Health, and Natural Disaster. We benchmark agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) on entry-level yet foundational prediction tasks -- ranging from forecasting market indicators and supply chain demands to tracking epidemic trends and natural disasters. By adapting the contamination-free, live-evaluation pipeline of FutureX, we assess whether current State-of-the-Art (SOTA) agentic LLMs possess the domain grounding necessary for industrial deployment. Our findings reveal the performance gap between generalist reasoning and the precision required for high-value vertical applications.

preprint2022arXiv

Adaptive Accelerated (Extra-)Gradient Methods with Variance Reduction

In this paper, we study the finite-sum convex optimization problem focusing on the general convex case. Recently, the study of variance reduced (VR) methods and their accelerated variants has made exciting progress. However, the step size used in the existing VR algorithms typically depends on the smoothness parameter, which is often unknown and requires tuning in practice. To address this problem, we propose two novel adaptive VR algorithms: Adaptive Variance Reduced Accelerated Extra-Gradient (AdaVRAE) and Adaptive Variance Reduced Accelerated Gradient (AdaVRAG). Our algorithms do not require knowledge of the smoothness parameter. AdaVRAE uses $\mathcal{O}\left(n\log\log n+\sqrt{\frac{nβ}ε}\right)$ gradient evaluations and AdaVRAG uses $\mathcal{O}\left(n\log\log n+\sqrt{\frac{nβ\logβ}ε}\right)$ gradient evaluations to attain an $\mathcal{O}(ε)$-suboptimal solution, where $n$ is the number of functions in the finite sum and $β$ is the smoothness parameter. This result matches the best-known convergence rate of non-adaptive VR methods and it improves upon the convergence of the state of the art adaptive VR method, AdaSVRG. We demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithms compared with previous methods in experiments on real-world datasets.