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Yu Luo

Yu Luo contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Applications Methodology

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preprint2026arXiv

A scalable Bayesian double machine learning framework for high dimensional causal estimation, with application to racial disproportionality assessment

Racial disproportionality in Stop and Search practices elicits substantial concerns about its societal and behavioral impacts. This paper aims to investigate the effect of disproportionality, particularly on the black community, on expressive crimes in London using data from January 2019 to December 2023. We focus on a semi-parametric partially linear structural regression method and introduce a scalable Bayesian empirical likelihood procedure combined with double machine learning techniques to control for high-dimensional confounding and to accommodate strong prior assumptions. In addition, we show that the proposed procedure yields a valid posterior in terms of coverage. Applying this approach to the Stop and Search dataset, we find that racial disproportionality aimed at the Black community may be alleviated by taking into account the proportion of the Black population when focusing on expressive crimes.

preprint2026arXiv

McCast: Memory-Guided Latent Drift Correction for Long-Horizon Precipitation Nowcasting

Existing precipitation nowcasting methods typically adopt an autoregressive formulation, where future states are predicted from previous outputs. However, such an approach accumulates errors over long rollouts, causing forecasts to drift away from physically plausible evolution trajectories. Although various studies have attempted to alleviate this problem by improving step-wise prediction accuracy, they largely neglect the global temporal evolution of meteorological systems and lack mechanisms to actively correct drift during rollouts. To address this issue, we propose McCast, a memory-guided latent drift correction method for precipitation nowcasting. Rather than treating memory as an unordered dictionary of latent states for passive conditioning, McCast leverages temporally organized memory to actively correct autoregressive latent evolution. Specifically, McCast introduces a Drift-Corrective Memory Bank (DCBank) that explicitly estimates the temporally consistent drift corrections to calibrate the divergent trajectory. DCBank performs drift correction in two stages: a Corrective Latent Extractor first predicts an initial correction from the current prediction and a reference latent state, and a Correction-Aware Memory Retrieval module then refines the initial correction using temporally organized historical memory. By explicitly correcting latent evolution, instead of improving step-wise prediction accuracy only, McCast produces more temporally coherent and reliable long-horizon forecasts. Experiments on two widely used benchmarks, SEVIR and MeteoNet, show that McCast achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly in challenging long-horizon forecasting scenarios.

preprint2026arXiv

Ratio-Variance Regularized Policy Optimization for Efficient LLM Fine-tuning

On-policy reinforcement learning (RL), particularly Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), has become the dominant paradigm for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs). While policy ratio clipping stabilizes training, this heuristic hard constraint incurs a fundamental cost: it indiscriminately truncates gradients from high-return yet high-divergence actions, suppressing rare but highly informative "eureka moments" in complex reasoning. Moreover, once data becomes slightly stale, hard clipping renders it unusable, leading to severe sample inefficiency. In this work, we revisit the trust-region objective in policy optimization and show that explicitly constraining the \emph{variance (second central moment) of the policy ratio} provides a principled and smooth relaxation of hard clipping. This distributional constraint stabilizes policy updates while preserving gradient signals from valuable trajectories. Building on this insight, we propose $R^2VPO$ (Ratio-Variance Regularized Policy Optimization), a novel primal-dual framework that supports stable on-policy learning and enables principled off-policy data reuse by dynamically reweighting stale samples rather than discarding them. We extensively evaluate $R^2VPO$ on fine-tuning state-of-the-art LLMs, including DeepSeek-Distill-Qwen-1.5B and the openPangu-Embedded series (1B and 7B), across challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Experimental results show that $R^2VPO$ consistently achieves superior asymptotic performance, with average relative gains of up to 17% over strong clipping-based baselines, while requiring approximately 50% fewer rollouts to reach convergence. These findings establish ratio-variance control as a promising direction for improving both stability and data efficiency in RL-based LLM alignment.

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