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Yen Ting Lin

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Published work

14 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

HyCOP: Hybrid Composition Operators for Interpretable Learning of PDEs

We introduce HyCOP, a modular framework that learns parametric PDE solution operators by composing simple modules (advection, diffusion, learned closures, boundary handling) in a query-conditioned way. Rather than learning a monolithic map, HyCOP learns a policy over short programs - which module to apply and for how long - conditioned on regime features and state statistics. Modules may be numerical sub-solvers or learned components, enabling hybrid surrogates evaluated at arbitrary query times without autoregressive rollout. Across diverse PDE benchmarks, HyCOP produces interpretable programs, delivers order-of-magnitude OOD improvements over monolithic neural operators, and supports modular transfer through dictionary updates (e.g., boundary swaps, residual enrichment). Our theory characterizes expressivity and gives an error decomposition that separates composition error from module error and doubles as a process-level diagnostic.

preprint2023arXiv

Data-Driven Mori-Zwanzig: Approaching a Reduced Order Model for Hypersonic Boundary Layer Transition

In this work, we apply, for the first time to spatially inhomogeneous flows, a recently developed data-driven learning algorithm of Mori-Zwanzig (MZ) operators, which is based on a generalized Koopman's description of dynamical systems. The MZ formalism provides a mathematically exact procedure for constructing non-Markovian reduced-order models of resolved variables from high-dimensional dynamical systems, where the effects due to the unresolved dynamics are captured in the memory kernel and orthogonal dynamics. The algorithm developed in this work applies Mori's linear projection operator and an SVD based compression to the selection of the resolved variables (equivalently, a low rank approximation of the two time covariance matrices). We show that this MZ decomposition not only identifies the same spatio-temporal structures found by DMD, but it can also be used to extract spatio-temporal structures of the hysteresis effects present in the memory kernels. We perform an analysis of these structures in the context of a laminar-turbulent boundary-layer transition flow over a flared cone at Mach 6, and show the dynamical relevance of the memory kernels. Additionally, by including these memory terms learned in our data-driven MZ approach, we show improvement in prediction accuracy over DMD at the same level of truncation and at a similar computational cost. Furthermore, an analysis of the spatio-temporal structures of the MZ operators shows identifiable structures associated with the nonlinear generation of the so-called "hot" streaks on the surface of the flared code, which have previously been observed in experiments and direct numerical simulations.

preprint2022arXiv

A phase transition for finding needles in nonlinear haystacks with LASSO artificial neural networks

To fit sparse linear associations, a LASSO sparsity inducing penalty with a single hyperparameter provably allows to recover the important features (needles) with high probability in certain regimes even if the sample size is smaller than the dimension of the input vector (haystack). More recently learners known as artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown great successes in many machine learning tasks, in particular fitting nonlinear associations. Small learning rate, stochastic gradient descent algorithm and large training set help to cope with the explosion in the number of parameters present in deep neural networks. Yet few ANN learners have been developed and studied to find needles in nonlinear haystacks. Driven by a single hyperparameter, our ANN learner, like for sparse linear associations, exhibits a phase transition in the probability of retrieving the needles, which we do not observe with other ANN learners. To select our penalty parameter, we generalize the universal threshold of Donoho and Johnstone (1994) which is a better rule than the conservative (too many false detections) and expensive cross-validation. In the spirit of simulated annealing, we propose a warm-start sparsity inducing algorithm to solve the high-dimensional, non-convex and non-differentiable optimization problem. We perform precise Monte Carlo simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach.

preprint2022arXiv

Gene expression noise accelerates the evolution of a biological oscillator

Gene expression is a biochemical process, where stochastic binding and un-binding events naturally generate fluctuations and cell-to-cell variability in gene dynamics. These fluctuations typically have destructive consequences for proper biological dynamics and function (e.g., loss of timing and synchrony in biological oscillators). Here, we show that gene expression noise counter-intuitively accelerates the evolution of a biological oscillator and, thus, can impart a benefit to living organisms. We used computer simulations to evolve two mechanistic models of a biological oscillator at different levels of gene expression noise. We first show that gene expression noise induces oscillatory-like dynamics in regions of parameter space that cannot oscillate in the absence of noise. We then demonstrate that these noise-induced oscillations generate a fitness landscape whose gradient robustly and quickly guides evolution by mutation towards robust and self-sustaining oscillation. These results suggest that noise can help dynamical systems evolve or learn new behavior by revealing cryptic dynamic phenotypes outside the bifurcation point.

preprint2020arXiv

Daily Forecasting of New Cases for Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce an epidemic curve with two timescales (e.g., fast growth and slow decay). The other is a compartmental model that accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a non-exponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic individuals, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. Using Bayesian inference, we have been calibrating our models daily for consistency with new reports of confirmed cases from the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States and quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates and predictions of future case reports. This online learning approach allows for early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting. We infer new significant upward trends for five of the metropolitan areas starting between 19-April-2020 and 12-June-2020.

preprint2020arXiv

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

preprint2020arXiv

What needles do sparse neural networks find in nonlinear haystacks

Using a sparsity inducing penalty in artificial neural networks (ANNs) avoids over-fitting, especially in situations where noise is high and the training set is small in comparison to the number of features. For linear models, such an approach provably also recovers the important features with high probability in regimes for a well-chosen penalty parameter. The typical way of setting the penalty parameter is by splitting the data set and performing the cross-validation, which is (1) computationally expensive and (2) not desirable when the data set is already small to be further split (for example, whole-genome sequence data). In this study, we establish the theoretical foundation to select the penalty parameter without cross-validation based on bounding with a high probability the infinite norm of the gradient of the loss function at zero under the zero-feature assumption. Our approach is a generalization of the universal threshold of Donoho and Johnstone (1994) to nonlinear ANN learning. We perform a set of comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations on a simple model, and the numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

preprint2016arXiv

Intrinsic noise in systems with switching environments

We study individual-based dynamics in finite populations, subject to randomly switching environmental conditions. These are inspired by models in which genes transition between on and off states, regulating underlying protein dynamics. Similarly switches between environmental states are relevant in bacterial populations and in models of epidemic spread. Existing piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP) approaches focus on the deterministic limit of the population dynamics while retaining the randomness of the switching. Here we go beyond this approximation and explicitly include effects of intrinsic stochasticity at the level of the linear-noise approximation. Specifically we derive the stationary distributions of a number of model systems, in good agreement with simulations. This improves existing approaches which are limited to the regimes of fast and slow switching.

preprint2016arXiv

Mechanisms of stochastic onset and termination of atrial fibrillation episodes: Insights using a cellular automaton model

Mathematical models of cardiac electrical excitation are increasingly complex, with multiscale models seeking to represent and bridge physiological behaviours across temporal and spatial scales. The increasing complexity of these models makes it computationally expensive to both evaluate long term (>60 seconds) behaviour and determine sensitivity of model outputs to inputs. This is particularly relevant in models of atrial fibrillation (AF), where individual episodes last from seconds to days, and inter-episode waiting times can be minutes to months. Potential mechanisms of transition between sinus rhythm and AF have been identified but are not well understood, and it is difficult to simulate AF for long periods of time using state-of-the-art models. In this study, we implemented a Moe-type cellular automaton on a novel, topologically correct surface geometry of the left atrium. We used the model to simulate stochastic initiation and spontaneous termination of AF, arising from bursts of spontaneous activation near pulmonary veins. The simplified representation of atrial electrical activity reduced computational cost, and so permitted us to investigate AF mechanisms in a probabilistic setting. We computed large numbers (~10^5) of sample paths of the model, to infer stochastic initiation and termination rates of AF episodes using different model parameters. By generating statistical distributions of model outputs, we demonstrated how to propagate uncertainties of inputs within our microscopic level model up to a macroscopic level. Lastly, we investigated spontaneous termination in the model and found a complex dependence on its past AF trajectory, the mechanism of which merits future investigation.

preprint2015arXiv

Assessing Measures of Atrial Fibrillation Clustering via Stochastic Models of Episode Recurrence and Disease Progression

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. AF prevalence increases with age, which is attributed to pathophysiological changes that aid AF initiation and perpetuation. Current state-of-the-art models are only capable of simulating short periods of atrial activity at high spatial resolution, whilst the majority of clinical recordings are based on infrequent temporal datasets of limited spatial resolution. Being able to estimate disease progression informed by both modelling and clinical data would be of significant interest. In addition an analysis of the temporal distribution of recorded fibrillation episodes AF density can provide insights into recurrence patterns. We present an initial analysis of the AF density measure using a simplified idealised stochastic model of a binary time series representing AF episodes. The future aim of this work is to develop robust clinical measures of progression which will be tested on models that generate long-term synthetic data. These measures would then be of clinical interest in deciding treatment strategies.

preprint2015arXiv

Bursting noise in gene expression dynamics: Linking microscopic and mesoscopic models

The dynamics of short-lived mRNA results in bursts of protein production in gene regulatory networks. We investigate the propagation of bursting noise between different levels of mathematical modelling, and demonstrate that conventional approaches based on diffusion approximations can fail to capture bursting noise. An alternative coarse-grained model, the so-called piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP), is seen to outperform the diffusion approximation in biologically relevant parameter regimes. We provide a systematic embedding of the PDMP model into the landscape of existing approaches, and we present analytical methods to calculate its stationary distribution and switching frequencies.

preprint2015arXiv

Formation and Dissolution of Bacterial Colonies

Many organisms form colonies for a transient period of time to withstand environmental pressure. Bacterial biofilms are a prototypical example of such behavior. Despite significant interest across disciplines, physical mechanisms governing the formation and dissolution of bacterial colonies are still poorly understood. Starting from a kinetic description of motile and interacting cells we derive a hydrodynamic equation for their density on a surface. We use it to describe formation of multiple colonies with sizes consistent with experimental data and to discuss their dissolution.

preprint2015arXiv

Gene expression dynamics with stochastic bursts: exact results for a coarse-grained model

We present a theoretical framework to analyze the dynamics of gene expression with stochastic bursts. Beginning with an individual-based model which fully accounts for the messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein populations, we propose a novel expansion of the master equation for the joint process. The resulting coarse-grained model reduces the dimensionality of the system, describing only the protein population while fully accounting for the effects of discrete and fluctuating mRNA population. Closed form expressions for the stationary distribution of the protein population and mean first-passage times of the coarse-grained model are derived and large-scale Monte Carlo simulations show that the analysis accurately describes the individual-based process accounting for mRNA population, in contrast to the failure of commonly proposed diffusion-type models.

preprint2015arXiv

Modelling the progression of atrial fibrillation: A stochastic individual-based approach

We propose a stochastic individual-based model of the progression of atrial fibrillation (AF). The model operates at patient level over a lifetime and is based on elements of the physiology and biophysics of AF, making contact with existing mechanistic models. The outputs of the model are times when the patient is in normal rhythm and AF, and we carry out a population-level analysis of the statistics of disease progression. While the model is stylised at present and not directly predictive, future improvements are proposed to tighten the gap between existing mechanistic models of AF, and epidemiological data, with a view towards model-based personalised medicine.