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Yasuko Matsubara

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Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning physics.soc-ph Social and Information Networks

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preprint2026arXiv

EpiGraph: Building Generalists for Evidence-Intensive Epilepsy Reasoning in the Wild

Epilepsy diagnosis and treatment require evidence-intensive reasoning across heterogeneous clinical knowledge, including biosignal patterns, genetic mechanisms, pharmacogenomics, treatment strategies, and patient outcomes. In this work, we present \textsc{EpiGraph}, a large-scale epilepsy knowledge graph and benchmark for evaluating knowledge-augmented clinical reasoning. \textsc{EpiGraph} integrates 48,166 peer-reviewed papers and seven clinical resources into a heterogeneous graph containing 24,324 entities and 32,009 evidence-grounded triplets across five clinical layers. Built upon this graph, \textsc{EpiBench} defines five clinically motivated tasks spanning clinical decision-making, EEG report generation, pharmacogenomic precision medicine, treatment recommendation, and deep research planning. We evaluate six LLMs under both standard and Graph-RAG settings. Results show that integrating \textsc{EpiGraph} consistently improves performance across all tasks, with the largest gains observed in pharmacogenomic reasoning (+30--41\%). Our findings demonstrate that structured epilepsy knowledge substantially enhances evidence-grounded clinical reasoning and provides a practical benchmark framework for evaluating knowledge-augmented LLMs in real-world neurological settings. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LabRAI/EEG-KG.

preprint2026arXiv

Fast Mining and Dynamic Time-to-Event Prediction over Multi-sensor Data Streams

Given real-time sensor data streams obtained from machines, how can we continuously predict when a machine failure will occur? This work aims to continuously forecast the timing of future events by analyzing multi-sensor data streams. A key characteristic of real-world data streams is their dynamic nature, where the underlying patterns evolve over time. To address this, we present TimeCast, a dynamic prediction framework designed to adapt to these changes and provide accurate, real-time predictions of future event time. Our proposed method has the following properties: (a) Dynamic: it identifies the distinct time-evolving patterns (i.e., stages) and learns individual models for each, enabling us to make adaptive predictions based on pattern shifts. (b) Practical: it finds meaningful stages that capture time-varying interdependencies between multiple sensors and improve prediction performance; (c) Scalable: our algorithm scales linearly with the input size and enables online model updates on data streams. Extensive experiments on real datasets demonstrate that TimeCast provides higher prediction accuracy than state-of-the-art methods while finding dynamic changes in data streams with a great reduction in computational time.

preprint2014arXiv

Revisit Behavior in Social Media: The Phoenix-R Model and Discoveries

How many listens will an artist receive on a online radio? How about plays on a YouTube video? How many of these visits are new or returning users? Modeling and mining popularity dynamics of social activity has important implications for researchers, content creators and providers. We here investigate the effect of revisits (successive visits from a single user) on content popularity. Using four datasets of social activity, with up to tens of millions media objects (e.g., YouTube videos, Twitter hashtags or LastFM artists), we show the effect of revisits in the popularity evolution of such objects. Secondly, we propose the Phoenix-R model which captures the popularity dynamics of individual objects. Phoenix-R has the desired properties of being: (1) parsimonious, being based on the minimum description length principle, and achieving lower root mean squared error than state-of-the-art baselines; (2) applicable, the model is effective for predicting future popularity values of objects.