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Tong Xia

Tong Xia contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

AgentEconomist: An End-to-end Agentic System Translating Economic Intuitions into Executable Computational Experiments

A long-standing challenge in economics lies not in the lack of intuition, but in the difficulty of translating intuitive insights into verifiable research. To address this challenge, we introduce AgentEconomist, an end-to-end interactive system designed to translate abstract intuitions into executable computational experiments. Grounded in a domain-specific knowledge base covering over 13,000 high-quality academic papers, the system employs a modular multi-stage architecture. Specifically, the Idea Development Stage generates literature-grounded hypotheses, the Experimental Design Stage configures simulator-aligned experimental parameters and protocols, and the Experimental Execution Stage runs experiments and returns structured analyses. Together, these stages form a human-in-the-loop, iterative workflow that translates economic intuitions into executable computational experiments. Through extensive experiments involving human expert evaluation and large language models (LLMs) as judges, we show that the system generates research ideas with stronger literature grounding and higher novelty and insight than state-of-the-art generic LLMs. Overall, AgentEconomist adopts a human-AI collaboration paradigm that enables researchers to focus on high-level intuitions, while delegating the labor-intensive processes of translation and computational execution to agents.

preprint2022arXiv

A Summary of the ComParE COVID-19 Challenges

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive humanitarian and economic damage. Teams of scientists from a broad range of disciplines have searched for methods to help governments and communities combat the disease. One avenue from the machine learning field which has been explored is the prospect of a digital mass test which can detect COVID-19 from infected individuals' respiratory sounds. We present a summary of the results from the INTERSPEECH 2021 Computational Paralinguistics Challenges: COVID-19 Cough, (CCS) and COVID-19 Speech, (CSS).

preprint2022arXiv

Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification on Biosignal Classification Tasks under Dataset Shift

A biosignal is a signal that can be continuously measured from human bodies, such as respiratory sounds, heart activity (ECG), brain waves (EEG), etc, based on which, machine learning models have been developed with very promising performance for automatic disease detection and health status monitoring. However, dataset shift, i.e., data distribution of inference varies from the distribution of the training, is not uncommon for real biosignal-based applications. To improve the robustness, probabilistic models with uncertainty quantification are adapted to capture how reliable a prediction is. Yet, assessing the quality of the estimated uncertainty remains a challenge. In this work, we propose a framework to evaluate the capability of the estimated uncertainty in capturing different types of biosignal dataset shifts with various degrees. In particular, we use three classification tasks based on respiratory sounds and electrocardiography signals to benchmark five representative uncertainty quantification methods. Extensive experiments show that, although Ensemble and Bayesian models could provide relatively better uncertainty estimations under dataset shifts, all tested models fail to meet the promise in trustworthy prediction and model calibration. Our work paves the way for a comprehensive evaluation for any newly developed biosignal classifiers.

preprint2022arXiv

Exploring Longitudinal Cough, Breath, and Voice Data for COVID-19 Progression Prediction via Sequential Deep Learning: Model Development and Validation

Recent work has shown the potential of using audio data (eg, cough, breathing, and voice) in the screening for COVID-19. However, these approaches only focus on one-off detection and detect the infection given the current audio sample, but do not monitor disease progression in COVID-19. Limited exploration has been put forward to continuously monitor COVID-19 progression, especially recovery, through longitudinal audio data. Tracking disease progression characteristics could lead to more timely treatment. The primary objective of this study is to explore the potential of longitudinal audio samples over time for COVID-19 progression prediction and, especially, recovery trend prediction using sequential deep learning techniques. Crowdsourced respiratory audio data, including breathing, cough, and voice samples, from 212 individuals over 5-385 days were analyzed. We developed a deep learning-enabled tracking tool using gated recurrent units (GRUs) to detect COVID-19 progression by exploring the audio dynamics of the individuals' historical audio biomarkers. The investigation comprised 2 parts: (1) COVID-19 detection in terms of positive and negative (healthy) tests, and (2) longitudinal disease progression prediction over time in terms of probability of positive tests. The strong performance for COVID-19 detection, yielding an AUROC of 0.79, a sensitivity of 0.75, and a specificity of 0.71 supported the effectiveness of the approach compared to methods that do not leverage longitudinal dynamics. We further examined the predicted disease progression trajectory, displaying high consistency with test results with a correlation of 0.75 in the test cohort and 0.86 in a subset of the test cohort who reported recovery. Our findings suggest that monitoring COVID-19 evolution via longitudinal audio data has potential in the tracking of individuals' disease progression and recovery.

preprint2021arXiv

AttnMove: History Enhanced Trajectory Recovery via Attentional Network

A considerable amount of mobility data has been accumulated due to the proliferation of location-based service. Nevertheless, compared with mobility data from transportation systems like the GPS module in taxis, this kind of data is commonly sparse in terms of individual trajectories in the sense that users do not access mobile services and contribute their data all the time. Consequently, the sparsity inevitably weakens the practical value of the data even it has a high user penetration rate. To solve this problem, we propose a novel attentional neural network-based model, named AttnMove, to densify individual trajectories by recovering unobserved locations at a fine-grained spatial-temporal resolution. To tackle the challenges posed by sparsity, we design various intra- and inter- trajectory attention mechanisms to better model the mobility regularity of users and fully exploit the periodical pattern from long-term history. We evaluate our model on two real-world datasets, and extensive results demonstrate the performance gain compared with the state-of-the-art methods. This also shows that, by providing high-quality mobility data, our model can benefit a variety of mobility-oriented down-stream applications.

preprint2021arXiv

Exploring Automatic Diagnosis of COVID-19 from Crowdsourced Respiratory Sound Data

Audio signals generated by the human body (e.g., sighs, breathing, heart, digestion, vibration sounds) have routinely been used by clinicians as indicators to diagnose disease or assess disease progression. Until recently, such signals were usually collected through manual auscultation at scheduled visits. Research has now started to use digital technology to gather bodily sounds (e.g., from digital stethoscopes) for cardiovascular or respiratory examination, which could then be used for automatic analysis. Some initial work shows promise in detecting diagnostic signals of COVID-19 from voice and coughs. In this paper we describe our data analysis over a large-scale crowdsourced dataset of respiratory sounds collected to aid diagnosis of COVID-19. We use coughs and breathing to understand how discernible COVID-19 sounds are from those in asthma or healthy controls. Our results show that even a simple binary machine learning classifier is able to classify correctly healthy and COVID-19 sounds. We also show how we distinguish a user who tested positive for COVID-19 and has a cough from a healthy user with a cough, and users who tested positive for COVID-19 and have a cough from users with asthma and a cough. Our models achieve an AUC of above 80% across all tasks. These results are preliminary and only scratch the surface of the potential of this type of data and audio-based machine learning. This work opens the door to further investigation of how automatically analysed respiratory patterns could be used as pre-screening signals to aid COVID-19 diagnosis.

preprint2021arXiv

Reinforced Contact Tracing and Epidemic Intervention

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 poses a serious threat to people's lives. Epidemic control strategies have also caused damage to the economy by cutting off humans' daily commute. In this paper, we develop an Individual-based Reinforcement Learning Epidemic Control Agent (IDRLECA) to search for smart epidemic control strategies that can simultaneously minimize infections and the cost of mobility intervention. IDRLECA first hires an infection probability model to calculate the current infection probability of each individual. Then, the infection probabilities together with individuals' health status and movement information are fed to a novel GNN to estimate the spread of the virus through human contacts. The estimated risks are used to further support an RL agent to select individual-level epidemic-control actions. The training of IDRLECA is guided by a specially designed reward function considering both the cost of mobility intervention and the effectiveness of epidemic control. Moreover, we design a constraint for control-action selection that eases its difficulty and further improve exploring efficiency. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that IDRLECA can suppress infections at a very low level and retain more than 95% of human mobility.

preprint2021arXiv

The INTERSPEECH 2021 Computational Paralinguistics Challenge: COVID-19 Cough, COVID-19 Speech, Escalation & Primates

The INTERSPEECH 2021 Computational Paralinguistics Challenge addresses four different problems for the first time in a research competition under well-defined conditions: In the COVID-19 Cough and COVID-19 Speech Sub-Challenges, a binary classification on COVID-19 infection has to be made based on coughing sounds and speech; in the Escalation SubChallenge, a three-way assessment of the level of escalation in a dialogue is featured; and in the Primates Sub-Challenge, four species vs background need to be classified. We describe the Sub-Challenges, baseline feature extraction, and classifiers based on the 'usual' COMPARE and BoAW features as well as deep unsupervised representation learning using the AuDeep toolkit, and deep feature extraction from pre-trained CNNs using the Deep Spectrum toolkit; in addition, we add deep end-to-end sequential modelling, and partially linguistic analysis.