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Tirthankar Dasgupta

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Published work

12 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

GAR: Carbon-Aware Routing for LLM Inference via Constrained Optimization

The growing deployment of large language models (LLMs) makes per-request routing essential for balancing response quality and computational cost across heterogeneous model pools. Current routing methods rarely consider sustainable energy use and CO2 emissions as optimization objectives, despite grid carbon intensity varying by time and region, and models differing significantly in energy consumption. To address this gap, we introduce Green-Aware Routing (GAR), a constrained multi-objective optimization framework that minimizes per-request CO2 emissions subject to explicit accuracy floors and p95-latency service-level objectives (SLOs). GAR employs adaptive constraint optimization through per-dataset floor tuning and incorporates lightweight estimators for correctness, tail latency, and carbon emissions, enabling real-time routing decisions without additional inference passes. We present GAR-PD, a practical online primal-dual routing algorithm for rolling carbon budgets, alongside heuristic variants that achieve high feasibility coverage while limiting accuracy degradation. Comprehensive experiments across standard NLP benchmarks with heterogeneous LLM pools (7B-70B) demonstrate that GAR achieves substantial carbon reductions while maintaining competitive accuracy and p95 latency guarantees, providing a practical, theoretically grounded approach to sustainable LLM inference.

preprint2024arXiv

PICS: A sequential approach to obtain optimal designs for non-linear models leveraging closed-form solutions for faster convergence

D-Optimal designs for estimating parameters of response models are derived by maximizing the determinant of the Fisher information matrix. For non-linear models, the Fisher information matrix depends on the unknown parameter vector of interest, leading to a weird situation that in order to obtain the D-optimal design, one needs to have knowledge of the parameter to be estimated. One solution to this problem is to choose the design points sequentially, optimizing the D-optimality criterion using parameter estimates based on available data, followed by updating the parameter estimates using maximum likelihood estimation. On the other hand, there are many non-linear models for which closed-form results for D-optimal designs are available, but because such solutions involve the parameters to be estimated, they can only be used by substituting "guestimates" of parameters. In this paper, a hybrid sequential strategy called PICS (Plug into closed-form solution) is proposed that replaces the optimization of the objective function at every single step by a draw from the probability distribution induced by the known optimal design by plugging in the current estimates. Under regularity conditions, asymptotic normality of the sequence of estimators generated by this approach are established. Usefulness of this approach in terms of saving computational time and achieving greater efficiency of estimation compared to the standard sequential approach are demonstrated with simulations conducted from two different sets of models.

preprint2022arXiv

Causal inference from treatment-control studies having an additional factor with unknown assignment mechanism

Consider a situation with two treatments, the first of which is randomized but the second is not, and the multifactor version of this. Interest is in treatment effects, defined using standard factorial notation. We define estimators for the treatment effects and explore their properties when there is information about the nonrandomized treatment assignment and when there is no information on the assignment of the nonrandomized treatment. We show when and how hidden treatments can bias estimators and inflate their sampling variances.

preprint2020arXiv

An Email Experiment to Identify the Effect of Racial Discrimination on Access to Lawyers: A Statistical Approach

We consider the problem of conducting an experiment to study the prevalence of racial bias against individuals seeking legal assistance, in particular whether lawyers use clues about a potential client's race in deciding whether to reply to e-mail requests for representations. The problem of discriminating between potential linear and non-linear effects of a racial signal is formulated as a statistical inference problem, whose objective is to infer a parameter determining the shape of a specific function. Various complexities associated with the design and analysis of this experiment are handled by applying a novel combination of rigorous, semi-rigorous and rudimentary statistical techniques. The actual experiment was attempted with a population of lawyers in Florida, but could not be performed with the desired sample size due to resource limitations. Nonetheless, it provides a nice demonstration of the proposed steps involved in conducting such a study.

preprint2020arXiv

Leveraging the Fisher randomization test using confidence distributions: inference, combination and fusion learning

The flexibility and wide applicability of the Fisher randomization test (FRT) makes it an attractive tool for assessment of causal effects of interventions from modern-day randomized experiments that are increasing in size and complexity. This paper provides a theoretical inferential framework for FRT by establishing its connection with confidence distributions Such a connection leads to development of (i) an unambiguous procedure for inversion of FRTs to generate confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage, (ii) generic and specific methods to combine FRTs from multiple independent experiments with theoretical guarantees and (iii) new insights on the effect of size of the Monte Carlo sample on the results of FRT. Our developments pertain to finite sample settings but have direct extensions to large samples. Simulations and a case example demonstrate the benefit of these new developments.

preprint2016arXiv

Causal Inference in Rebuilding and Extending the Recondite Bridge between Finite Population Sampling and Experimental Design

This article considers causal inference for treatment contrasts from a randomized experiment using potential outcomes in a finite population setting. Adopting a Neymanian repeated sampling approach that integrates such causal inference with finite population survey sampling, an inferential framework is developed for general mechanisms of assigning experimental units to multiple treatments. This framework extends classical methods by allowing the possibility of randomization restrictions and unequal replications. Novel conditions that are "milder" than strict additivity of treatment effects, yet permit unbiased estimation of the finite population sampling variance of any treatment contrast estimator, are derived. The consequences of departures from such conditions are also studied under the criterion of minimax bias, and a new justification for using the Neymanian conservative sampling variance estimator in experiments is provided. The proposed approach can readily be extended to the case of treatments with a general factorial structure.

preprint2016arXiv

Randomization-Based Causal Inference from Unbalanced 2^2 Split-Plot Designs

Given two 2-level factors of interest, a 2^2 split-plot design} (a) takes each of the $2^2=4$ possible factorial combinations as a treatment, (b) identifies one factor as `whole-plot,' (c) divides the experimental units into blocks, and (d) assigns the treatments in such a way that all units within the same block receive the same level of the whole-plot factor. Assuming the potential outcomes framework, we propose in this paper a randomization-based estimation procedure for causal inference from 2^2 designs that are not necessarily balanced. Sampling variances of the point estimates are derived in closed form as linear combinations of the between- and within-block covariances of the potential outcomes. Results are compared to those under complete randomization as measures of design efficiency. Interval estimates are constructed based on conservative estimates of the sampling variances, and the frequency coverage properties evaluated via simulation. Asymptotic connections of the proposed approach to the model-based super-population inference are also established. Superiority over existing model-based alternatives is reported under a variety of settings for both binary and continuous outcomes.

preprint2015arXiv

A Potential Tale of Two by Two Tables from Completely Randomized Experiments

Causal inference in completely randomized treatment-control studies with binary outcomes is discussed from Fisherian, Neymanian and Bayesian perspectives, using the potential outcomes framework. A randomization-based justification of Fisher's exact test is provided. Arguing that the crucial assumption of constant causal effect is often unrealistic, and holds only for extreme cases, some new asymptotic and Bayesian inferential procedures are proposed. The proposed procedures exploit the intrinsic non-additivity of unit-level causal effects, can be applied to linear and non-linear estimands, and dominate the existing methods, as verified theoretically and also through simulation studies.

preprint2015arXiv

Improving Covariate Balance in 2^K Factorial Designs via Rerandomization

Factorial designs are widely used in agriculture, engineering, and the social sciences to study the causal effects of several factors simultaneously on a response. The objective of such a design is to estimate all factorial effects of interest, which typically include main effects and interactions among factors. To estimate factorial effects with high precision when a large number of pre-treatment covariates are present, balance among covariates across treatment groups should be ensured. We propose utilizing rerandomization to ensure covariate balance in factorial designs. Although both factorial designs and rerandomization have been discussed before, the combination has not. Here, theoretical properties of rerandomization for factorial designs are established, and empirical results are explored using an application from the New York Department of Education.

preprint2014arXiv

Inference for deformation and interference in 3D printing

Additive manufacturing, or 3D printing, is a promising manufacturing technique marred by product deformation due to material solidification in the printing process. Control of printed product deformation can be achieved by a compensation plan. However, little attention has been paid to interference in compensation, which is thought to result from the inevitable discretization of a compensation plan. We investigate interference with an experiment involving the application of discretized compensation plans to cylinders. Our treatment illustrates a principled framework for detecting and modeling interference, and ultimately provides a new step toward better understanding quality control for 3D printing.

preprint2012arXiv

Causal inference from $2^k$ factorial designs using the potential outcomes model

A framework for causal inference from two-level factorial designs is proposed. The framework utilizes the concept of potential outcomes that lies at the center stage of causal inference and extends Neyman's repeated sampling approach for estimation of causal effects and randomization tests based on Fisher's sharp null hypothesis to the case of 2-level factorial experiments. The framework allows for statistical inference from a finite population, permits definition and estimation of estimands other than "average factorial effects" and leads to more flexible inference procedures than those based on ordinary least squares estimation from a linear model.