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Tanja Käser

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3 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Tracing Persona Vectors Through LLM Pretraining

How large language models internally represent high-level behaviors is a core interpretability question with direct relevance to AI safety: it determines what we can detect, audit, or intervene on. Recent work has shown that traits such as evil or sycophancy correspond to linear directions in the internal activations, the so-called persona vectors. Although these vectors are now routinely utilized to inspect and steer model behavior in safety-relevant settings, how these representations are formed during training remains unknown. To address this gap, we trace persona vectors across the pretraining of OLMo-3-7B, finding that persona vectors form remarkably early -- within 0.22% of OLMo-3 pretraining -- and remain effective for steering the fully post-trained instruct models. Although core representations are formed early on, persona vectors continue to refine geometrically and semantically throughout pretraining. We further compare alternative elicitation strategies and find that all yield effective directions, with each strategy surfacing qualitatively distinct facets of the underlying persona. Replicating our analysis on Apertus-8B reveals that our findings transfer qualitatively beyond OLMo-3. Our results establish persona representations as stable features of early pretraining and open a path to studying how training forms, refines, and shapes them.

preprint2022arXiv

Evaluating the Explainers: Black-Box Explainable Machine Learning for Student Success Prediction in MOOCs

Neural networks are ubiquitous in applied machine learning for education. Their pervasive success in predictive performance comes alongside a severe weakness, the lack of explainability of their decisions, especially relevant in human-centric fields. We implement five state-of-the-art methodologies for explaining black-box machine learning models (LIME, PermutationSHAP, KernelSHAP, DiCE, CEM) and examine the strengths of each approach on the downstream task of student performance prediction for five massive open online courses. Our experiments demonstrate that the families of explainers do not agree with each other on feature importance for the same Bidirectional LSTM models with the same representative set of students. We use Principal Component Analysis, Jensen-Shannon distance, and Spearman's rank-order correlation to quantitatively cross-examine explanations across methods and courses. Furthermore, we validate explainer performance across curriculum-based prerequisite relationships. Our results come to the concerning conclusion that the choice of explainer is an important decision and is in fact paramount to the interpretation of the predictive results, even more so than the course the model is trained on. Source code and models are released at http://github.com/epfl-ml4ed/evaluating-explainers.

preprint2022arXiv

Generalisable Methods for Early Prediction in Interactive Simulations for Education

Interactive simulations allow students to discover the underlying principles of a scientific phenomenon through their own exploration. Unfortunately, students often struggle to learn effectively in these environments. Classifying students' interaction data in the simulations based on their expected performance has the potential to enable adaptive guidance and consequently improve students' learning. Previous research in this field has mainly focused on a-posteriori analyses or investigations limited to one specific predictive model and simulation. In this paper, we investigate the quality and generalisability of models for an early prediction of conceptual understanding based on clickstream data of students across interactive simulations. We first measure the students' conceptual understanding through their in-task performance. Then, we suggest a novel type of features that, starting from clickstream data, encodes both the state of the simulation and the action performed by the student. We finally propose to feed these features into GRU-based models, with and without attention, for prediction. Experiments on two different simulations and with two different populations show that our proposed models outperform shallow learning baselines and better generalise to different learning environments and populations. The inclusion of attention into the model increases interpretability in terms of effective inquiry. The source code is available on Github (https://github.com/epfl-ml4ed/beerslaw-lab.git).