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Sidhant Misra

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Published work

23 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching

Learning of continuous exponential family distributions with unbounded support remains an important area of research for both theory and applications in high-dimensional statistics. In recent years, score matching has become a widely used method for learning exponential families with continuous variables due to its computational ease when compared against maximum likelihood estimation. However, theoretical understanding of the statistical properties of score matching is still lacking. In this work, we provide a non-asymptotic sample complexity analysis for learning the structure of exponential families of polynomials with score matching. The derived sample bounds show a polynomial dependence on the model dimension. These bounds are the first of its kind, as all prior work has shown only asymptotic bounds on the sample complexity.

preprint2022arXiv

Learning Continuous Exponential Families Beyond Gaussian

We address the problem of learning of continuous exponential family distributions with unbounded support. While a lot of progress has been made on learning of Gaussian graphical models, we still lack scalable algorithms for reconstructing general continuous exponential families modeling higher-order moments of the data beyond the mean and the covariance. Here, we introduce a computationally efficient method for learning continuous graphical models based on the Interaction Screening approach. Through a series of numerical experiments, we show that our estimator maintains similar requirements in terms of accuracy and sample complexity scalings compared to alternative approaches such as maximization of conditional likelihood, while considerably improving upon the algorithm's run-time.

preprint2021arXiv

Robust Gas Pipeline Network Expansion Planning to Support Power System Reliability

We examine the problem of optimal transport capacity expansion planning for a gas pipeline network to service the growing demand of gas-fired power plants that are increasingly used to provide base load, flexibility, and reserve generation for bulk electric system. The aim is to determine the minimal cost set of additional pipes and gas compressors that can be added to the network to provide the additional capacity to service future loads. This combinatorial optimization problem is initially formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear program, which we then extend to account for the variability that is inherent to the demands of gas-fired electricity production and uncertainty in expected future loads. We consider here steady-state flow modeling while ensuring that the solution is feasible for all possible values of interval uncertainty in loads, which results in a challenging semi-infinite problem. We apply previously derived monotonicity properties that enable simplification of the problem to require constraint satisfaction in the two extremal scenarios only, and then formulate the robust gas pipeline network expansion planning problem using a mixed-integer second order cone formulation. We consider case studies on the Belgian network test case to examine the performance of the proposed approach.

preprint2020arXiv

An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems

In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift towards generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines, and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants, and only consider predetermined gas consumption. The results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.

preprint2020arXiv

Monotonicity Properties of Physical Network Flows and Application to Robust Optimal Allocation

We derive conditions for monotonicity properties that characterize general flows of a commodity over a network, where the flow is described by potential and flow dynamics on the edges, as well as potential continuity and Kirchhoff-Neumann mass balance requirements at nodes. The transported commodity may be injected or withdrawn at any of the network nodes, and its movement throughout the network is controlled by nodal actuators. For a class of dissipative nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation (PDE) systems on networks, we derive conditions for monotonicity properties in steady-state flow, as well as for propagation of monotone ordering of states with respect to time-varying boundary condition parameters. In the latter case, initial conditions, as well as time-varying parameters in the coupling conditions at vertices, provide an initial boundary value problem (IBVP). We prove that ordering properties of the solution to the IBVP are preserved when the initial conditions and the parameters of the time-varying coupling law are appropriately ordered. Then, we prove that when monotone ordering is not preserved, the first crossing of solutions occurs at a network node. We consider the implications for robust optimization and optimal control formulations and real-time monitoring of uncertain dynamic flows on networks, and discuss application to subsonic compressible fluid flow with energy dissipation on physical networks. The main result and monitoring policy are demonstrated for gas pipeline test networks and a case study using data corresponding to a real working system. We propose applications of this general result to the control and monitoring of natural gas transmission networks.

preprint2020arXiv

Stochastic AC Optimal Power Flow: A Data-Driven Approach

There is an emerging need for efficient solutions to stochastic AC Optimal Power Flow ({AC-}OPF) to ensure optimal and reliable grid operations in the presence of increasing demand and generation uncertainty. This paper presents a highly scalable data-driven algorithm for stochastic AC-OPF that has extremely low sample requirement. The novelty behind the algorithm's performance involves an iterative scenario design approach that merges information regarding constraint violations in the system with data-driven sparse regression. Compared to conventional methods with random scenario sampling, our approach is able to provide feasible operating points for realistic systems with much lower sample requirements. Furthermore, multiple sub-tasks in our approach can be easily paralleled and based on historical data to enhance its performance and application. We demonstrate the computational improvements of our approach through simulations on different test cases in the IEEE PES PGLib-OPF benchmark library.

preprint2020arXiv

Tractable learning in under-excited power grids

Estimating the structure of physical flow networks such as power grids is critical to secure delivery of energy. This paper discusses statistical structure estimation in power grids in the "under-excited" regime, where a subset of internal nodes do not have external injection. Prior estimation algorithms based on nodal potentials or voltages fail in the under-excited regime. We propose a novel topology learning algorithm for learning underexcited general (non-radial) networks based on physics-informed conservation laws. We prove the asymptotic correctness of our algorithm for grids with non-adjacent under-excited internal nodes. More importantly, we theoretically analyze our algorithm's efficacy under noisy measurements, and determine bounds on maximum noise under which asymptotically correct recovery is guaranteed. Our approach is validated through simulations with non-linear voltage samples generated on test grids with real injection data

preprint2016arXiv

A Note on Alternating Minimization Algorithm for the Matrix Completion Problem

We consider the problem of reconstructing a low rank matrix from a subset of its entries and analyze two variants of the so-called Alternating Minimization algorithm, which has been proposed in the past. We establish that when the underlying matrix has rank $r=1$, has positive bounded entries, and the graph $\mathcal{G}$ underlying the revealed entries has bounded degree and diameter which is at most logarithmic in the size of the matrix, both algorithms succeed in reconstructing the matrix approximately in polynomial time starting from an arbitrary initialization. We further provide simulation results which suggest that the second algorithm which is based on the message passing type updates, performs significantly better.

preprint2016arXiv

Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow with Curtailment and Reserves from Wind Power Plants

Over the past years, the share of electricity production from wind power plants has increased to significant levels in several power systems across Europe and the United States. In order to cope with the fluctuating and partially unpredictable nature of renewable energy sources, transmission system operators (TSOs) have responded by increasing their reserve capacity requirements and by requiring wind power plants to be capable of providing reserves or following active power set-point signals. This paper addresses the issue of efficiently incorporating these new types of wind power control in the day-ahead operational planning. We review the technical requirements the wind power plants must fulfill, and propose a mathematical framework for modeling wind power control. The framework is based on an optimal power flow formulation with weighted chance constraints, which accounts for the uncertainty of wind power forecasts and allows us to limit the risk of constraint violations. In a case study based on the IEEE 118 bus system, we use the developed method to assess the effectiveness of different types of wind power control in terms of operational cost, system security and wind power curtailment.

preprint2016arXiv

Corrective Control to Handle Forecast Uncertainty: A Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow

Higher shares of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and market liberalization is increasing uncertainty in power systems operation. At the same time, operation is becoming more flexible with improved control systems and new technology such as phase shifting transformers (PSTs) and high voltage direct current connections (HVDC). Previous studies have shown that the use of corrective control in response to outages contributes to a reduction in operating cost, while maintaining N-1 security. In this work, we propose a method to extend the use of corrective control of PSTs and HVDCs to react to uncertainty. We characterize the uncertainty as continuous random variables, and define the corrective control actions through affine control policies. This allows us to efficiently model control reactions to a large number of uncertainty sources. The control policies are then included in a chance constrained optimal power flow formulation, which guarantees that the system constraints are enforced with a desired probability. By applying an analytical reformulation of the chance constraints, we obtain a second-order cone problem for which we develop an efficient solution algorithm. In a case study for the IEEE 118 bus system, we show that corrective control for uncertainty leads to a decrease in operational cost, while maintaining system security. Further, we demonstrate the scalability of the method by solving the problem for the IEEE 300 bus and the Polish system test cases.

preprint2016arXiv

Graphical Models for Optimal Power Flow

Optimal power flow (OPF) is the central optimization problem in electric power grids. Although solved routinely in the course of power grid operations, it is known to be strongly NP-hard in general, and weakly NP-hard over tree networks. In this paper, we formulate the optimal power flow problem over tree networks as an inference problem over a tree-structured graphical model where the nodal variables are low-dimensional vectors. We adapt the standard dynamic programming algorithm for inference over a tree-structured graphical model to the OPF problem. Combining this with an interval discretization of the nodal variables, we develop an approximation algorithm for the OPF problem. Further, we use techniques from constraint programming (CP) to perform interval computations and adaptive bound propagation to obtain practically efficient algorithms. Compared to previous algorithms that solve OPF with optimality guarantees using convex relaxations, our approach is able to work for arbitrary distribution networks and handle mixed-integer optimization problems. Further, it can be implemented in a distributed message-passing fashion that is scalable and is suitable for "smart grid" applications like control of distributed energy resources. We evaluate our technique numerically on several benchmark networks and show that practical OPF problems can be solved effectively using this approach.

preprint2016arXiv

Monotone Order Properties for Control of Nonlinear Parabolic PDE on Graphs

We derive conditions for the propagation of monotone ordering properties for a class of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation (PDE) systems on metric graphs. For such systems, PDE equations with a general nonlinear dissipation term define evolution on each edge, and balance laws create Kirchhoff-Neumann boundary conditions at the vertices. Initial conditions, as well as time-varying parameters in the coupling conditions at vertices, provide an initial value problem (IVP). We first prove that ordering properties of the solution to the IVP are preserved when the initial conditions and time-varying coupling law parameters at vertices are appropriately ordered. In addition, we prove that when monotone ordering is not preserved, the first crossing of solutions occurs at a graph vertex. We consider the implications for robust optimal control formulations and real-time monitoring involving uncertain dynamic flows on networks, and discuss application to subsonic compressible fluid flow with energy dissipation on physical networks.

preprint2016arXiv

Monotonicity of Actuated Flows on Dissipative Transport Networks

We derive a monotonicity property for general, transient flows of a commodity transferred throughout a network, where the flow is characterized by density and mass flux dynamics on the edges with density continuity and mass balance conditions at the nodes. The dynamics on each edge are represented by a general system of partial differential equations that approximates subsonic compressible fluid flow with energy dissipation. The transferred commodity may be injected or withdrawn at any of the nodes, and is propelled throughout the network by nodally located compressors. These compressors are controllable actuators that provide a means to manipulate flows through the network, which we therefore consider as a control system. A canonical problem requires compressor control protocols to be chosen such that time-varying nodal commodity withdrawal profiles are delivered and the density remains within strict limits while an economic or operational cost objective is optimized. In this manuscript, we consider the situation where each nodal commodity withdrawal profile is uncertain, but is bounded within known maximum and minimum time-dependent limits. We introduce the monotone parameterized control system property, and prove that general dynamic dissipative network flows possess this characteristic under certain conditions. This property facilitates very efficient formulation of optimal control problems for such systems in which the solutions must be robust with respect to commodity withdrawal uncertainty. We discuss several applications in which such control problems arise and where monotonicity enables simplified characterization of system behavior.

preprint2016arXiv

Unit Commitment with N-1 Security and Wind Uncertainty

As renewable wind energy penetration rates continue to increase, one of the major challenges facing grid operators is the question of how to control transmission grids in a reliable and a cost-efficient manner. The stochastic nature of wind forces an alteration of traditional methods for solving day-ahead and look-ahead unit commitment and dispatch. In particular, uncontrollable wind generation increases the risk of random component failures. To address these questions, we present an N-1 Security and Chance-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCCUC) that includes the modeling of generation reserves that respond to wind fluctuations and tertiary reserves to account for single component outages. The basic formulation is reformulated as a mixed-integer second-order cone problem to limit the probability of failure. We develop three different algorithms to solve the problem to optimality and present a detailed case study on the IEEE RTS-96 single area system. The case study assesses the economic impacts due to contingencies and various degrees of wind power penetration into the system and also corroborates the effectiveness of the algorithms.

preprint2015arXiv

Maximum Throughput Problem in Dissipative Flow Networks with Application to Natural Gas Systems

We consider a dissipative flow network that obeys the standard linear nodal flow conservation, and where flows on edges are driven by potential difference between adjacent nodes. We show that in the case when the flow is a monotonically increasing function of the potential difference, solution of the network flow equations is unique and can be equivalently recast as the solution of a strictly convex optimization problem. We also analyze the maximum throughput problem on such networks seeking to maximize the amount of flow that can be delivered to the loads while satisfying bounds on the node potentials. When the dissipation function is differentiable we develop a representation of the maximum throughput problem in the form of a twice differentiable biconvex optimization problem exploiting the variational representation of the network flow equations. In the process we prove a special case of a certain monotonicity property of dissipative flow networks. When the dissipation function follows a power law with exponent greater than one, we suggest a mixed integer convex relaxation of the maximum throughput problem. Finally, we illustrate application of these general results to balanced, i.e. steady, natural gas networks also validating the theory results through simulations on a test case.

preprint2015arXiv

Monotonicity of Dissipative Flow Networks Renders Robust Maximum Profit Problem Tractable: General Analysis and Application to Natural Gas Flows

We consider general, steady, balanced flows of a commodity over a network where an instance of the network flow is characterized by edge flows and nodal potentials. Edge flows in and out of a node are assumed to be conserved, thus representing standard network flow relations. The remaining freedom in the flow distribution over the network is constrained by potentials so that the difference of potentials at the head and the tail of an edge is expressed as a nonlinear function of the edge flow. We consider networks with nodes divided into three categories: sources that inject flows into the network for a certain cost, terminals which buy the flow at a fixed price and "internal" customers each withdrawing an uncertain amount of flow, which has a priority and thus it is not priced. Our aim is to operate the network such that the profit, i.e. amount of flow sold to terminals minus cost of injection, is maximized, while maintaining the potentials within prescribed bounds. We also require that the operating point is robust with respect to the uncertainty of customers' withdrawals. In this setting we prove that potentials are monotonic functions of the withdrawals. This observation enables us to replace in the maximum profit optimization infinitely many nodal constraints, each representing a particular value of withdrawal uncertainty, by only two constraints representing the cases where all nodes with uncertainty consume their minimum and maximum amounts respectively. We illustrate this general result on example of the natural gas transmission network. In this enabling example gas withdrawals by consumers are assumed uncertain, the potentials are gas pressures squared, the potential drop functions are bilinear in the flow and its intensity with an added tunable factor representing compression.

preprint2015arXiv

Natural Gas Flow Solutions with Guarantees: A Monotone Operator Theory Approach

We consider balanced flows in a natural gas transmission network and discuss computationally hard problems such as establishing if solution of the underlying nonlinear gas flow equations exists, if it is unique, and finding the solution. Particular topologies, e.g. trees, are known to be easy to solve based on a variational description of the gas flow equations, but these approaches do not generalize. In this paper, we show that the gas flow problem can be solved efficiently using the tools of monotone operator theory, provided that we look for solution within certain monotonicity domains. We characterize a family of monotonicity domains, described in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) in the state variables, each containing at most one solution. We also develop an efficient algorithm to choose a particular monotonicity domain, for which the LMI based condition simplifies to a bound on the flows. Performance of the technique is illustrated on exemplary gas networks.

preprint2015arXiv

Optimal Power Flow with Weighted Chance Constraints and General Policies for Generation Control

Due to the increasing amount of electricity generated from renewable sources, uncertainty in power system operation will grow. This has implications for tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF), an optimization problem widely used in power system operations and planning, which should be adjusted to account for this uncertainty. One way to handle the uncertainty is to formulate a Chance Constrained OPF (CC-OPF) which limits the probability of constraint violation to a predefined value. However, existing CC-OPF formulations and solutions are not immune to drawbacks. On one hand, they only consider affine policies for generation control, which are not always realistic and may be sub-optimal. On the other hand, the standard CC-OPF formulations do not distinguish between large and small violations, although those might carry significantly different risk. In this paper, we introduce the Weighted CC-OPF (WCC-OPF) that can handle general control policies while preserving convexity and allowing for efficient computation. The weighted chance constraints account for the size of violations through a weighting function, which assigns a higher risk to a higher overloads. We prove that the problem remains convex for any convex weighting function, and for very general generation control policies. In a case study, we compare the performance of the new WCC-OPF and the standard CC-OPF and demonstrate that WCC-OPF effectively reduces the number of severe overloads. Furthermore, we compare an affine generation control policy with a more general policy, and show that the additional flexibility allow for a lower cost while maintaining the same level of risk.

preprint2015arXiv

Pressure Fluctuations in Natural Gas Networks caused by Gas-Electric Coupling

The development of hydraulic fracturing technology has dramatically increased the supply and lowered the cost of natural gas in the United States, driving an expansion of natural gas-fired generation capacity in several electrical inter-connections. Gas-fired generators have the capability to ramp quickly and are often utilized by grid operators to balance intermittency caused by wind generation. The time-varying output of these generators results in time-varying natural gas consumption rates that impact the pressure and line-pack of the gas network. As gas system operators assume nearly constant gas consumption when estimating pipeline transfer capacity and for planning operations, such fluctuations are a source of risk to their system. Here, we develop a new method to assess this risk. We consider a model of gas networks with consumption modeled through two components: forecasted consumption and small spatio-temporarily varying consumption due to the gas-fired generators being used to balance wind. While the forecasted consumption is globally balanced over longer time scales, the fluctuating consumption causes pressure fluctuations in the gas system to grow diffusively in time with a diffusion rate sensitive to the steady but spatially-inhomogeneous forecasted distribution of mass flow. To motivate our approach, we analyze the effect of fluctuating gas consumption on a model of the Transco gas pipeline that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northeast of the United States.

preprint2014arXiv

Giant Component in Random Multipartite Graphs with Given Degree Sequences

We study the problem of the existence of a giant component in a random multipartite graph. We consider a random multipartite graph with $p$ parts generated according to a given degree sequence $n_i^{\mathbf{d}}(n)$ which denotes the number of vertices in part $i$ of the multipartite graph with degree given by the vector $\mathbf{d}$. We assume that the empirical distribution of the degree sequence converges to a limiting probability distribution. Under certain mild regularity assumptions, we characterize the conditions under which, with high probability, there exists a component of linear size. The characterization involves checking whether the Perron-Frobenius norm of the matrix of means of a certain associated edge-biased distribution is greater than unity. We also specify the size of the giant component when it exists. We use the exploration process of Molloy and Reed combined with techniques from the theory of multidimensional Galton-Watson processes to establish this result.

preprint2014arXiv

Optimal compression in natural gas networks: a geometric programming approach

Natural gas transmission pipelines are complex systems whose flow characteristics are governed by challenging non-linear physical behavior. These pipelines extend over hundreds and even thousands of miles. Gas is typically injected into the system at a constant rate, and a series of compressors are distributed along the pipeline to boost the gas pressure to maintain system pressure and throughput. These compressors consume a portion of the gas, and one goal of the operator is to control the compressor operation to minimize this consumption while satisfying pressure constraints at the gas load points. The optimization of these operations is computationally challenging. Many pipelines simply rely on the intuition and prior experience of operators to make these decisions. Here, we present a new geometric programming approach for optimizing compressor operation in natural gas pipelines. Using models of real natural gas pipelines, we show that the geometric programming algorithm consistently outperforms approaches that mimic existing state of practice.

preprint2014arXiv

Weighted $\ell_1$-minimization for generalized non-uniform sparse model

Model-based compressed sensing refers to compressed sensing with extra structure about the underlying sparse signal known a priori. Recent work has demonstrated that both for deterministic and probabilistic models imposed on the signal, this extra information can be successfully exploited to enhance recovery performance. In particular, weighted $\ell_1$-minimization with suitable choice of weights has been shown to improve performance in the so called non-uniform sparse model of signals. In this paper, we consider a full generalization of the non-uniform sparse model with very mild assumptions. We prove that when the measurements are obtained using a matrix with i.i.d Gaussian entries, weighted $\ell_1$-minimization successfully recovers the sparse signal from its measurements with overwhelming probability. We also provide a method to choose these weights for any general signal model from the non-uniform sparse class of signal models.

preprint2012arXiv

Strong spatial mixing for list coloring of graphs

The property of spatial mixing and strong spatial mixing in spin systems has been of interest because of its implications on uniqueness of Gibbs measures on infinite graphs and efficient approximation of counting problems that are otherwise known to be #P hard. In the context of coloring, strong spatial mixing has been established for regular trees when $q \geq α^{*} Δ+ 1$ where $q$ the number of colors, $Δ$ is the degree and $α^* = 1.763..$ is the unique solution to $xe^{-1/x} = 1$. It has also been established for bounded degree lattice graphs whenever $q \geq α^* Δ- β$ for some constant $β$, where $Δ$ is the maximum vertex degree of the graph. The latter uses a technique based on recursively constructed coupling of Markov chains whereas the former is based on establishing decay of correlations on the tree. We establish strong spatial mixing of list colorings on arbitrary bounded degree triangle-free graphs whenever the size of the list of each vertex $v$ is at least $αΔ(v) + β$ where $Δ(v)$ is the degree of vertex $v$ and $α> α^*$ and $β$ is a constant that only depends on $α$. We do this by proving the decay of correlations via recursive contraction of the distance between the marginals measured with respect to a suitably chosen error function.