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Shiyu Zhang

Shiyu Zhang contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

9 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Repeated Deceptive Path Planning against Learnable Observer

We study the problem of deceptive path planning (DPP), where an agent aims to conceal its true destination from external observers. While existing work assumes static, non-learning observers, real-world adversaries-such as in critical goods transportation or military operations-can adapt by learning from historical trajectories. To address this gap, we introduce Repeated Deceptive Path Planning (RDPP), a new formulation that explicitly models learnable observers. We show that existing DPP methods fail under this setting, as they cannot adapt to evolving adversarial predictions. While incorporating observer previous predictions into updates enables some adaptation, such incremental updates cause accumulative lag that degrades deception. To this end, we propose Deceptive Meta Planning (DeMP), a two-level optimization framework that combines episode-level adaptation, which enables short-term policy adjustment to counter updated observer, and meta-level updates, which leverage cross-episode feedback to capture how observers update their models and accelerate adaptation in future episodes. In this way, DeMP mitigates the accumulation of adaptation lag, enabling sustained deception against a learning observer. Experiments across environments demonstrate that DeMP significantly outperforms existing approaches in RDPP while maintaining competitive path cost. Our results highlight the importance of modeling repeated interactions with learnable adversaries, providing new insights into deception and privacy in multi-agent systems.

preprint2026arXiv

Systemic Risk in DeFi: A Network-Based Fragility Analysis of TVL Dynamics

Systemic risk refers to the overall vulnerability arising from the high degree of interconnectedness and interdependence within the financial system. In the rapidly developing decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, numerous studies have analyzed systemic risk through specific channels such as liquidity pressures, leverage mechanisms, smart contract risks, and historical risk events. However, these studies are mostly event-driven or focused on isolated risk channels, paying limited attention to the structural dimension of systemic risk. Overall, this study provides a unified quantitative framework for ecosystem-level analysis and continuous monitoring of systemic risk in DeFi. From a network-based perspective, this paper proposes the DeFi Correlation Fragility Indicator (CFI), constructed from time-varying correlation networks at the protocol category level. The CFI captures ecosystem-wide structural fragility associated with correlation concentration and increasing synchronicity. Furthermore, we define a Risk Contribution Score (RCS) to quantify the marginal contribution of different protocol types to overall systemic risk. By combining the CFI and RCS, the framework enables both the tracking of time-varying systemic risk and identification of structurally important functional modules in risk accumulation and amplification.

preprint2026arXiv

Value-Decomposed Reinforcement Learning Framework for Taxiway Routing with Hierarchical Conflict-Aware Observations

Taxiway routing and on-surface conflict avoidance are coupled safety-critical decision problems in airport surface operations. Existing planning and optimization methods are often limited by online computational cost, while reinforcement learning methods may struggle to represent downstream traffic conflicts and balance multiple objectives. This paper presents Conflict-aware Taxiway Routing (CaTR), a reinforcement learning framework for real-time multi-aircraft taxiway routing. CaTR constructs a grid-based airport surface environment with action masking, introduces a hierarchical foresight traffic representation to encode current and downstream conflict-related traffic conditions, and adopts a value-decomposed reinforcement learning strategy to prioritize sparse but safety-critical objectives. Experiments are conducted on a realistic environment based on Changsha Huanghua International Airport under multiple traffic density levels. Results show that CaTR achieves better safety--efficiency trade-offs than representative planning, optimization, and reinforcement learning baselines while maintaining practical runtime.

preprint2022arXiv

CO Emission Delineating the Interface between the Milky Way Nuclear Wind Cavity and the Gaseous Disk

Based on the MWISP survey, we study high-z CO emission toward the tangent points, in which the distances of the molecular clouds (MCs) are well determined. In the region of l=12-26 deg and |b|<5.1 deg, a total of 321 MCs with |z|> 110 pc are identified, of which nearly 30 extreme high-z MCs (EHMCs at |z|> 260 pc) are concentrated in a narrow region of R_GC=2.6-3.1 kpc. The EHMC concentrations, together with other high-z MCs at R_GC=2.3-2.6 kpc, constitute molecular crater-wall structures surrounding the edges of the HI voids that are physically associated with the Fermi bubbles. Intriguingly, some large high-z MCs, which lie in the crater walls above and below the Galactic plane, show cometary structures with the head toward the plane, favouring the scenario that the entrained molecular gas moves with the multi-phase flows from the plane to the high-z regions. We suggest that the Milky Way nuclear wind has a significant impact on the Galactic gaseous disk. The powerful nuclear wind at ~3-6 Myr ago is likely responsible for the observational features, (1) the enhanced CO gas lying in the edges of the HI voids, (2) the deficiency of atomic and molecular gas within R_GC<3 kpc, (3) the possible connection between the EHMC concentrations and the 3-kpc arm, and (4) the elongated high-z MCs with the tail pointing away from the Galactic plane.

preprint2022arXiv

CO(J = 1-0) Observations toward the Filamentary Cloud in the Galactic Region of $153.60^{\circ} \leqslant l \leqslant 156.50^{\circ}$ and $1.85^{\circ} \leqslant b \leqslant 3.50^{\circ}$

We present observations of $J$=1-0 transition lines of ${ }^{12} \mathrm{CO}$, ${ }^{13} \mathrm{CO}$, and $\mathrm{C}^{18} \mathrm{O}$ towards the Galactic region of $153.60^{\circ} \leqslant l \leqslant 156.50^{\circ}$ and $1.85^{\circ} \leqslant b \leqslant 3.50^{\circ}$, using the Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO) 13.7 m millimeter telescope. Based on the \tht data, one main filament and five sub-filaments are found together as a network structure in the velocity interval of $[-42.5, -30.0] \,\mathrm{km} \mathrm{\,s}^{-1}$. The kinematic distance of this molecular cloud (MC) is estimated to be $\sim4.5 \mathrm{\,kpc}$. The median length, width, excitation temperature, line mass of these filaments are $\sim49 \mathrm{\,pc}$, $\sim2.9 \mathrm{\,pc}$, $\sim8.9 \mathrm{\,K}$, and $\sim39 \,M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-1}$, respectively. The velocity structures along these filaments exhibit oscillatory patterns, which are likely caused by the fragmentation or accretion process along these filaments. The maximum accretion rate is estimated to be as high as $\sim700 \,M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-1}$. A total of $\sim162$ \tht clumps and $\sim 103$ young stellar objects (YSOs) are identified in this region. Most of the clumps are in gravitationally bound states. Three \hii regions (G154.359+2.606, SH2-211, SH2-212) are found to be located in the apexes of the filaments. Intense star forming activities are found along the entire filamentary cloud. The observed results may help us to better understand the link between filaments and massive star formation.

preprint2022arXiv

Ensemble learning priors unfolding for scalable Snapshot Compressive Sensing

Snapshot compressive imaging (SCI) can record the 3D information by a 2D measurement and from this 2D measurement to reconstruct the original 3D information by reconstruction algorithm. As we can see, the reconstruction algorithm plays a vital role in SCI. Recently, deep learning algorithm show its outstanding ability, outperforming the traditional algorithm. Therefore, to improve deep learning algorithm reconstruction accuracy is an inevitable topic for SCI. Besides, deep learning algorithms are usually limited by scalability, and a well trained model in general can not be applied to new systems if lacking the new training process. To address these problems, we develop the ensemble learning priors to further improve the reconstruction accuracy and propose the scalable learning to empower deep learning the scalability just like the traditional algorithm. What&#39;s more, our algorithm has achieved the state-of-the-art results, outperforming existing algorithms. Extensive results on both simulation and real datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm. The code and models will be released to the public.

preprint2022arXiv

Geographic Spillover Effects of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs)

Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) seek to potentially reduce opioid misuse by restricting the sale of opioids in a state. We examine discontinuities along state borders, where one side may have a PDMP and the other side may not. We find that electronic PDMP implementation, whereby doctors and pharmacists can observe a patient&#39;s opioid purchase history, reduces a state&#39;s opioid sales but increases opioid sales in neighboring counties on the other side of the state border. We also find systematic differences in opioid sales and mortality between border counties and interior counties. These differences decrease when neighboring states both have ePDMPs, which is consistent with the hypothesis that individuals cross state lines to purchase opioids. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the opioid market as connected across counties or states, as we show that states are affected by the opioid policies of their neighbors.

preprint2022arXiv

TENET: Transformer Encoding Network for Effective Temporal Flow on Motion Prediction

This technical report presents an effective method for motion prediction in autonomous driving. We develop a Transformer-based method for input encoding and trajectory prediction. Besides, we propose the Temporal Flow Header to enhance the trajectory encoding. In the end, an efficient K-means ensemble method is used. Using our Transformer network and ensemble method, we win the first place of Argoverse 2 Motion Forecasting Challenge with the state-of-the-art brier-minFDE score of 1.90.

preprint2021arXiv

The OxyContin Reformulation Revisited: New Evidence From Improved Definitions of Markets and Substitutes

The opioid epidemic began with prescription pain relievers. In 2010 Purdue Pharma reformulated OxyContin to make it more difficult to abuse. OxyContin misuse fell dramatically, and concurrently heroin deaths began to rise. Previous research overlooked generic oxycodone and argued that the reformulation induced OxyContin users to switch directly to heroin. Using a novel and fine-grained source of all oxycodone sales from 2006-2014, we show that the reformulation led users to substitute from OxyContin to generic oxycodone, and the reformulation had no overall impact on opioid or heroin mortality. In fact, generic oxycodone, instead of OxyContin, was the driving factor in the transition to heroin. Finally, we show that by omitting generic oxycodone we recover the results of the literature. These findings highlight the important role generic oxycodone played in the opioid epidemic and the limited effectiveness of a partial supply-side intervention.