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Sara Malvar

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2 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Diagnosing Capability Gaps in Fine-Tuning Data

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for domain-specific tasks requires training datasets that comprehensively cover the target capabilities a practitioner needs. Yet identifying which capabilities a dataset fails to support, and doing so before an expensive fine-tuning run, remains a largely unsolved problem. We introduce GoalCover, a framework that helps practitioners systematically detect capability gaps in fine-tuning datasets through interactive goal decomposition and automated coverage assessment. GoalCover guides a practitioner through structured decomposition of a high-level goal into atomic, independently evaluable subgoals; assigns each training sample an LLM-based alignment score against every subgoal; and surfaces missing capabilities through automated analysis of low-scoring sample explanations. We validate the framework along two complementary axes. First, through controlled corruption experiments across three domains (medical QA, legal summarization, code generation), we show that GoalCover reliably distinguishes targeted from non-targeted capability impacts: target subgoals degrade by 25.6% on average versus 2.1% for non-target subgoals (Cohen's d=1.24). Second, we demonstrate downstream utility on a financial-summarization Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) task with Qwen-3-14B: training on GoalCover-filtered data improves the LLM-judge reward from 3.77 to 4.12 (out of 5) over the unfiltered baseline, and combining filtered data with goal-conditioned synthetic samples yields the strongest result (4.20). The two results together show that GoalCover works as a practical pre-fine-tuning diagnostic: it detects capability gaps and produces concrete signal for closing them.

preprint2022arXiv

Machine learning approaches for localized lockdown during COVID-19: a case study analysis

At the end of 2019, the latest novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 emerged as a significant acute respiratory disease that has become a global pandemic. Countries like Brazil have had difficulty in dealing with the virus due to the high socioeconomic difference of states and municipalities. Therefore, this study presents a new approach using different machine learning and deep learning algorithms applied to Brazilian COVID-19 data. First, a clustering algorithm is used to identify counties with similar sociodemographic behavior, while Benford's law is used to check for data manipulation. Based on these results we are able to correctly model SARIMA models based on the clusters to predict new daily cases. The unsupervised machine learning techniques optimized the process of defining the parameters of the SARIMA model. This framework can also be useful to propose confinement scenarios during the so-called second wave. We have used the 645 counties from São Paulo state, the most populous state in Brazil. However, this methodology can be used in other states or countries. This paper demonstrates how different techniques of machine learning, deep learning, data mining and statistics can be used together to produce important results when dealing with pandemic data. Although the findings cannot be used exclusively to assess and influence policy decisions, they offer an alternative to the ineffective measures that have been used.