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Qixuan Chen

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2 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

AI4BayesCode: From Natural Language Descriptions to Validated Modular Stateful Bayesian Samplers

Coding and computation remain major bottlenecks in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) workflows, especially as modern sampling algorithms have become increasingly complex and existing probabilistic programming systems remain limited in model support, extensibility, and composability. We introduce \textbf{AI4BayesCode}, an extensible LLM-driven system that translates natural-language Bayesian model descriptions into runnable, validated MCMC samplers. To improve reliability, AI4BayesCode adopts a modular design that decomposes models into modular sampling blocks and maps each block to a built-in sampling component, reducing the need to implement complex sampling algorithms from scratch. Reliability is further improved through pre-generation validation of model specifications and post-generation validation of generated sampler code. AI4BayesCode also introduces a novel recursively stateful coding paradigm for MCMC, allowing modular sampling components, potentially developed by different contributors, to be composed coherently within larger MCMC procedures. We develop a benchmark suite to evaluate AI4BayesCode for sampler-generation. Experiments show that AI4BayesCode can implement a wide range of Bayesian models from natural-language descriptions alone. As an open-ended system, its capability can continue to expand with improvements in the underlying AI agent and the addition of new built-in blocks.

preprint2021arXiv

Modeling Heterogeneity and Missing Data of Multiple Longitudinal Outcomes in Electronic Health Records

In electronic health records (EHRs), latent subgroups of patients may exhibit distinctive patterning in their longitudinal health trajectories. For such data, growth mixture models (GMMs) enable classifying patients into different latent classes based on individual trajectories and hypothesized risk factors. However, the application of GMMs is hindered by the special missing data problem in EHRs, which manifests two patient-led missing data processes: the visit process and the response process for an EHR variable conditional on a patient visiting the clinic. If either process is associated with the process generating the longitudinal outcomes, then valid inferences require accounting for a nonignorable missing data mechanism. We propose a Bayesian shared parameter model that links GMMs of multiple longitudinal health outcomes, the visit process, and the response process of each outcome given a visit using a discrete latent class variable. Our focus is on multiple longitudinal health outcomes for which there can be a clinically prescribed visit schedule. We demonstrate our model in EHR measurements on early childhood weight and height z-scores. Using data simulations, we illustrate the statistical properties of our method with respect to subgroup-specific or marginal inferences. We built the R package EHRMiss for model fitting, selection, and checking.