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Researcher profile

Pavel Izmailov

Pavel Izmailov contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningArtificial IntelligenceComputer VisionMathematical SoftwareNumerical Analysis

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Published work

7 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Lifting Embodied World Models for Planning and Control

World models of embodied agents predict future observations conditioned on an action taken by the agent. For complex embodiments, action spaces are high-dimensional and difficult to specify: for example, precisely controlling a human agent requires specifying the motion of each joint. This makes the world model hard to control and expensive to plan with as search-based methods like CEM scale poorly with action dimensionality. To address this issue, we train a lightweight policy that maps high-level actions to sequences of low-level joint actions. Composing this policy with the frozen world model produces a lifted world model that predicts a sequence of future observations from a single high-level action. We instantiate this framework for a human-like embodiment, defining the high-level action space as a small set of 2D waypoints annotated on the current observation frame, each specifying a near-term goal position for a leaf joint (pelvis, head, hands). Waypoints are low-dimensional, visually interpretable, and easy to specify manually or to search over. We show that the lifted world model substantially outperforms searching directly in low-level joint space ($3.8\times$ lower mean joint error to the goal pose), while remaining more compute-efficient and generalizing to environments unseen by the policy.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which are typically underspecified by the data, and can represent many compelling but different solutions. We show that deep ensembles provide an effective mechanism for approximate Bayesian marginalization, and propose a related approach that further improves the predictive distribution by marginalizing within basins of attraction, without significant overhead. We also investigate the prior over functions implied by a vague distribution over neural network weights, explaining the generalization properties of such models from a probabilistic perspective. From this perspective, we explain results that have been presented as mysterious and distinct to neural network generalization, such as the ability to fit images with random labels, and show that these results can be reproduced with Gaussian processes. We also show that Bayesian model averaging alleviates double descent, resulting in monotonic performance improvements with increased flexibility. Finally, we provide a Bayesian perspective on tempering for calibrating predictive distributions.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

On Uncertainty, Tempering, and Data Augmentation in Bayesian Classification

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance parameter. By contrast, for Bayesian classification we use a categorical distribution with no mechanism to represent our beliefs about aleatoric uncertainty. Our work shows that explicitly accounting for aleatoric uncertainty significantly improves the performance of Bayesian neural networks. We note that many standard benchmarks, such as CIFAR, have essentially no aleatoric uncertainty. Moreover, we show data augmentation in approximate inference has the effect of softening the likelihood, leading to underconfidence and profoundly misrepresenting our honest beliefs about aleatoric uncertainty. Accordingly, we find that a cold posterior, tempered by a power greater than one, often more honestly reflects our beliefs about aleatoric uncertainty than no tempering -- providing an explicit link between data augmentation and cold posteriors. We show that we can match or exceed the performance of posterior tempering by using a Dirichlet observation model, where we explicitly control the level of aleatoric uncertainty, without any need for tempering.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Tensor Train decomposition on TensorFlow (T3F)

Tensor Train decomposition is used across many branches of machine learning. We present T3F -- a library for Tensor Train decomposition based on TensorFlow. T3F supports GPU execution, batch processing, automatic differentiation, and versatile functionality for the Riemannian optimization framework, which takes into account the underlying manifold structure to construct efficient optimization methods. The library makes it easier to implement machine learning papers that rely on the Tensor Train decomposition. T3F includes documentation, examples and 94% test coverage.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Why Normalizing Flows Fail to Detect Out-of-Distribution Data

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data is crucial for robust machine learning systems. Normalizing flows are flexible deep generative models that often surprisingly fail to distinguish between in- and out-of-distribution data: a flow trained on pictures of clothing assigns higher likelihood to handwritten digits. We investigate why normalizing flows perform poorly for OOD detection. We demonstrate that flows learn local pixel correlations and generic image-to-latent-space transformations which are not specific to the target image dataset. We show that by modifying the architecture of flow coupling layers we can bias the flow towards learning the semantic structure of the target data, improving OOD detection. Our investigation reveals that properties that enable flows to generate high-fidelity images can have a detrimental effect on OOD detection.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning

We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been shown to improve generalization in deep learning. With SWAG, we fit a Gaussian using the SWA solution as the first moment and a low rank plus diagonal covariance also derived from the SGD iterates, forming an approximate posterior distribution over neural network weights; we then sample from this Gaussian distribution to perform Bayesian model averaging. We empirically find that SWAG approximates the shape of the true posterior, in accordance with results describing the stationary distribution of SGD iterates. Moreover, we demonstrate that SWAG performs well on a wide variety of tasks, including out of sample detection, calibration, and transfer learning, in comparison to many popular alternatives including MC dropout, KFAC Laplace, SGLD, and temperature scaling.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

Semi-Supervised Learning with Normalizing Flows

Normalizing flows transform a latent distribution through an invertible neural network for a flexible and pleasingly simple approach to generative modelling, while preserving an exact likelihood. We propose FlowGMM, an end-to-end approach to generative semi supervised learning with normalizing flows, using a latent Gaussian mixture model. FlowGMM is distinct in its simplicity, unified treatment of labelled and unlabelled data with an exact likelihood, interpretability, and broad applicability beyond image data. We show promising results on a wide range of applications, including AG-News and Yahoo Answers text data, tabular data, and semi-supervised image classification. We also show that FlowGMM can discover interpretable structure, provide real-time optimization-free feature visualizations, and specify well calibrated predictive distributions.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access